1. http://www.tcdailyplanet.net/sites/tcdailyplanet.net/files/Rust%20belt_jpg_full_600.jpg by Catherine Konieczny, Joshua Galster Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Montclair State University

2. Goal: Test to see if a trend exists between population density and river baseflow http://images.flatworldknowledge.com/trowbridge2_1.0/trowbridge2_1.0-fig12_001.jpghttp://jan.ucc.nau.edu/~doetqp-p/courses/env302/lec6/Image41.gif What constitutes as a depopulated city and where are these cities found? What is river baseflow, runoff, and total flow? (River Baseflow + Runoff = Total Flow)

3. How are population density and baseflow connected? http://www.beachapedia.org/images/4/46/Natural_%26_impervious_cover_diagrams_EPA.jpg

4. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4d/Physiographic_Provinces_48_Conterminous_US-v1.svg/800px-Physiographic_Provinces_48_Conterminous_US-v1.svg.png Konieczny et al. (2014) Lopes et al. (2013)

5. Objective : Test to see if a trend exists between population density and river baseflow

6. How is the goal going to be accomplished? http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6b/Census_Bureau_seal.svg/220px-Census_Bureau_seal.svg.png http://www.eia.gov/emeu/recs/cendivco.gif http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f0/Northfield_Mountain_Tailrace_Tunnel_-_USGS_map.jpg http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1999/ofr-99-0364/usgs.gif Lim et. al, 2010

7. Compiling the Data

8. Analyzing the Data SUMMARY OUTPUT for#4216200LOG Pop Den vs. LOG BF/P/A Regression Statistics Multiple R0.73947873 R Square0.546828791 Adjusted R Square0.533881043 Standard Error0.139887057 Observations37 ANOVA dfSSMSFSignificance F Regression10.8264416110.826441642.2335031.71084E-07 Residual350.6848936080.0195684 Total361.511335219 CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Intercept-23.929543852.8492442-8.39855846.612E-10-29.71381705-18.14527065-29.71381705 X Variable 17.1648493051.1024997686.49873091.711E-074.9266557999.4030428124.926655799

9. Out of 26 gages, 16 gages had statistically significant results, with a p-value equal to or less than 0.05 or 53% of gages proved to be statistically significant Only 11% of the statistically significant gages are found within the Appalachian Plateau 65% of gages in the Central Lowlands produced statistically significant results Results Summarized LOG Data Gage NameGage #BF X-varp-valueRO X-varp-valueTF X-varp-value LITTLE PINE CREEK NEAR ETNA, PA30498000.1692480.643258-0.046550.9277610.0572030.889731 ABERS CREEK NEAR MURRAYSVILLE, PA30840000.5698250.1763940.4463850.3612640.512350.222733 TURTLE CREEK AT TRATTFORD, PA3084500-0.905860.193385-1.736190.063137-1.312760.078252 CHARTIERS CREEK AT CARNEGIE, PA3085500-0.058670.841827-0.477660.032828-0.209520.441274 MILL CREEK AT YOUNGSTOWN, OH3098500-1.503170.719685-1.37670.602494-1.592110.661382 TINKERS CREEK AT BRADFORD, OH4207200-0.891730.031647-0.515720.271409-0.714970.08092 MILL CREEK AT CARTHAGE, OH32590001.7643290.2972741.2842970.1979071.5309120.279303 WOLF CREEK AT DAYTON, OH32710004.3474946.15E-053.0715181.98E-053.906214.35E-05 KEARSLEY CREEK NEAR DAVISON, MI41481400.0034050.9965450.1943380.8209230.0734580.926282 PAINT CREEK AT ROCHESTER, MI41615400.4721260.0375870.4390790.0491250.4643590.035363 BIG BEAVER CREEK NEAR WARREN, MI4162900-3.057250.001821-1.985470.01302-2.402820.005271 PLUM BROOK AT UTICA, MI41634002.7984870.0363142.2988230.0362832.5906070.038592 NORTH BRANCH CLINTON RIVER NEAR MT. CLEMENS, MI41645000.1673520.1177870.0982810.425710.1351860.230124 RIVER ROUGE AT BIRMINGHAM, MI41660000.7448422.65E-050.6640543.37E-050.714362.07E-05 EVANS DITCH AT SOUTHFIELD, MI41662000.5399420.0070440.7754350.0023370.6684350.002483 UPPER RIVER ROUGE AT FARMINGTON, MI41663001.353549.62E-101.5304254.84E-091.4204027.56E-10 MIDDLE RIVER ROUGE NEAR GARDEN CITY, MI4167000-3.95520.006259-3.150670.00387-3.712660.005654 LOWER RIVER ROUGE AT INKSTER, MI4168000-2.876298.88E-13-1.228210.00051-2.123864.46E-09 OTTAWA RIVER AT UNIVERSITY OF TOLEDO,OH4177000-1.921870.563865-0.79380.681552-1.522450.592616 ROCKY RIVER NEAR BREA, OH4201500-1.036290.007859-0.580630.003509-0.940260.00252 CAYUGA CREEK NR LANCASTER, NY42150003.985780.0010671.7940820.0108483.1522640.002332 CAZENOVIA CREEK AT EBENEZER, NY42155000.1163480.55728-0.164650.529097-0.02310.913566 SCAJAQUADA CREEK AT BUFFALO, NY42162007.1648491.71E-071.6163110.0132364.0971495.03E-06 ELLICOTT CREEK BELOW WILLIAMSVILLE, NY4218518-2.186926.79E-06-0.320270.644189-1.366360.008506 ALLEN CREEK NEAR ROCHESTER, NY4232050-0.089750.8968411.9413380.0079070.7767520.234081 IRONDEQUOIT CR ABV BLOSSOM RD NR ROCHESTER, NY4.23E+081.3630780.3066412.0323180.2851131.5753810.268717 Appalachian Plateaus0.01 significance Central Lowland0.05 significance

10. Positive Trend vs. Negative Trend Appalachian Plateau: 0 Positive Trends & 2 Negative Trends Central Lowlands: 9 Positive Trends & 5 Negative Trends

11. What does this imply? Urban Karstification. http://academic.emporia.edu/aberjame/field/flint/rock02.jpg http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_JRp7TJWTx4A/S8Zvpncq70I/AAAAAAAAAVU/HPmQaOgb0d8/s1600/KarstDiagram-70pct-730206.jpg http:// www.kwhpipe.ca/Link.aspx?id=1112003

12. Future Directions/Recommendations Have finer grained population density data. More precise impervious surface data. Expand the geographic area and the amount of gages. What are economic implications for the depreciated city losing excess water revenue. Have cities in similar geophysiographic provinces experienced similar trends as a result of changes in population density? Has the flood frequency changed in the Central Lowlands due to an overall increase in baseflow (Teo, 2014)?

13. Questions? http://static.panoramio.com/photos/large/18637974.jpghttp://img.geocaching.com/cache/large/5b64dd91-ba09-4fdf-aa2a-2aae1604be97.jpg