1. COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013 Are the emerging middle classes the key to success? The middle class and political demands in Russia > Natalia ZUBAREVICH, Professor of Moscow state university, Director of regional program of independent institute for social policy 0

2. / Russia: GDP and money income growth rate, (1998 = 100 %) 1 COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 19981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011 GDPMoney income 20% population with the highest income - 350%

3. / Middle classes criteria: low consistency, 2011, % households 2 COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013 Professional status 21 % Professional status 21 % Income and property 28 % Income and property 28 % Self- identification 25 % 10 % 9%9% 9%9% 5%5% 5%5% GGS survey - 2011: 11,261 households Source: IISP  Core of the middle class (3 criteria)  only 5 % households  2 criteria + 3d (above low class)  19 %  Core of the middle class (3 criteria)  only 5 % households  2 criteria + 3d (above low class)  19 %

4. / Russia: Socio-economic stratification, % 3 COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013 19 23 24 12 16 19 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 200420072011 middle classMC peripherybelow MCLC peripherylow class Source: IISP

5. /  Moscow  40 % more 2011  Moscow  40 % more 2011  Entrepreneurs share decline:  2007 – 13 %  2011 – 11 %  Entrepreneurs share decline:  2007 – 13 %  2011 – 11 %  MC: 25-49 years old singles and couples Middle class: spatial, labor and age structure 4 COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013 MC share of all households, % Source: IISP 16 12 4 19 16 8 30 21 11 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 regional centersother cities and townscountryside 200420072011 100% 23 36 11 23 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% not working both sectors entrepreneurs market sector budget sector women men 3 2 1 -450-300-1500150300450 less 29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 more 70 3 3 2 2 1 1

6. / 20 11 9 10 8 5 26 12 31 % Russia-1 big cities 31-35 % Russia-3 small towns and rural periphery Russia-2 medium sized industrial cities Spatial structure of Russian population, % Center-periphery model 5 COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013 cities 1 million more 500 thous.-1 million 250 – 500 thousand 100 – 250 thousand 50-100 thousand 50 thousand less small urban settlements rural settlements Population Russia-1 Russia-2 Russia-3

7. / Share of votes for V. Putin (local precincts), % 6 COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013 minmax  Russia total - 63,6% (official data).  Center-periphery model works but not everywhere…