1. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY San Francisco DTA Model: Working Model Calibration Part 2: Results Renee Alsup DTA Peer Review Panel Meeting July 25 th, 2012

2. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY Agenda 9:00Background 9:30Technical Overview – Part 1 Development Process and Code Base/Network Development 10:15Break 10:30Technical Overview – Part 2 Calibration and Integration Strategies 12:00Working Lunch / Discussion 2:00Panel Caucus (closed) 3:30 Panel report 5:30Adjourn

3. Outline Summary Results Large Outliers Select Link Analysis Corridor Plots Key Findings 3 Results from July 11 Calibration Run ( pb_july11_300p_FT )

4. Summary Results

5. Link Volumes 5

6. Movement Volumes 6

7. Time-of-Day 7

8. Average Movement Volumes by Facility Type Facility Type Number of CountsObservedModeledDifference Percent Difference Percent RMSE Freeway 41016931-85-8%38% Major Arterial 835504412-92-18%61% Minor Arterial 4902112514019%94% Collector 35713347-85-64%109% Local 1504119-23-55%114% Total 1,836317267-50-16%76% 8

9. Average Movement Volumes by Turn Type Turn Type Number of CountsObservedModeledDifference Percent Difference Percent RMSE Through 696675598-77-11%54% Left Turn 5249057-32-36%132% Right Turn 58611074-36-33%103% Total 1,814317267-50-16%76% 9

10. Large Outliers

11. Worst Links with Volume too Low 11 LinkIDLabelFacility Type Num Lanes Start Time Count Volume Model Volume 15034HARRISON STMajor Art517:002093416 13221SUNSET BLVDMajor Art317:002514849 13221SUNSET BLVDMajor Art316:002248913 13223SUNSET BLVDMajor Art317:002204905 28677GEARY BLVDCollector117:00130044 32834HARRISON STMajor Art517:001443200 16180FOLSOM STMajor Art417:001702467 15034HARRISON STMajor Art516:001664438 23818GEARY BLVDCollector117:001505292 28677GEARY BLVDCollector116:00126459

12. Worst Links with Volume too High 12 LinkIDLabel Facility Type Num Lanes Start Time Count Volume Model Volume 24936GEARY BLVDMajor Art316:0014992669 24936GEARY BLVDMajor Art317:0015752642 17742STOCKTON STMajor Art416:009161866 22475VAN NESS AVEMajor Art316:0010271830 9011484STOCKTON STMajor Art316:007941584 25174GEARY BLVDMajor Art316:0016292400 21090TURK STMajor Art216:006411406 24943GEARY BLVDMajor Art316:0017992558 23909GEARY BLVDMajor Art316:0018352552 22762GEARY BLVDMajor Art316:0014732138

13. Speed Outliers Broadway Tunnel- Free-flow speed is 25mph-30mph. The actual speed limit in the tunnel is 40mph. Geneva from Ocean to Cayuga – Modeled free-flow speed is 10 mph higher than speed limit. Solution: Fix free-flow speeds by making sure they fall in the right area type. 13

14. Select Link Analysis

15. 15 I-80 EB Select Link (1/2) As expected, much of the traffic comes from freeways. We also see a good amount of traffic taking Oak to get onto I-80 from the Western region and taking 1 st St and 2 nd St North of Market. Selected Link

16. 16 I-80 EB Select Link (2/2) 1 st and 2 nd Street are heavily used by people going from CBD to get onto the freeway. Embarcadero is used, but less than 1 st or 2 nd St. There isn’t a lot of traffic moving Eastward to get onto the freeway between I-80 and Market. People have mostly entered the freeway by then, or they move East while they are North of Market. Selected Link

17. 17 I-80 EB On-Ramps Most traffic gets to the on-ramps on 1 st St, 2 nd St and The Embarcadero Vehicles further North are more likely to take Embarcadero South to get onto I-80 than to use the local streets

18. I-80 WB Select Link 18 Selected Link Much of the traffic entering on I-80 is destined for the Southern region Freeways take much of the traffic, but some takes Freemont to Pine or 9 th St to Van Ness and Franklin

19. 19 I-80 WB On-Ramps Most vehicles use the first ramp at Harrison & 4 th Because the first ramp isn’t congested very few vehicles continue on Harrison to second ramp Select Links

20. 20 19 th Ave NB Most of the traffic on 19 th Ave is just straight through on Hwy 1 Very little traffic from here is going East or West – Sunset Blvd and Great Hwy used for traffic going West

21. 21 19 th Ave SB Very similar to NB traffic pattern Picks up some traffic in the park headed South

22. 22 Sunset Blvd NB Almost no traffic going to the Golden Gate Bridge Mostly trips from I-280 and Hwy 1 to local areas South of the park Need to figure out why so few people are using Sunset to go through the park

23. 23 Sunset Blvd SB Almost no traffic coming from Golden Gate Bridge. Mostly comes from South of the park Significant amount of traffic from Lincoln Way coming over from the CBD on Fell

24. 24 Golden Gate Bridge Outbound Origin of traffic seems evenly split between East and West regions Significant number of trips on Geary between Hwy 1 and Franklin/Van Ness to change which entry point to the bridge is used

25. 25 Golden Gate Bridge Inbound East/West split is similar to outbound Don’t have people using Geary to move between East and West regions here Very few vehicles going Southwest use any other path besides Hwy 1

26. Corridor Plots

27. Ocean: Miramar to 19 th Ave 27 Big drop at Junipero Serra

28. Townsend: 2 nd St to 7 th St 28 Big drop at Junipero Serra Vehicles turn left at 4 th St to get to I-280 entrance ramps

29. Key Findings

30. The model is free from obvious gridlock There generally appears to be less congestion than anticipated—perhaps due to the removal of the bus- only lanes A number of outliers appear to be driven by specific network movements—such as freeway on-ramps 30

31. Next Steps Incorporate a network coding strategy for the bus-only lanes. Incorporate the effect of slope into the speed-flow parameters based on additional analysis of the data collected. Update the time-of-day profile of the demand to better match the higher volumes observed in the 5-6 pm hour. Identify origins - destinations markets where SF- CHAMP is over- or under-estimating vehicle demand. Deal with pedestrian/bicycle friction? 31

32. Questions?