1. Adaptation: managing the unavoidable Roundtable 3: Can agricultural investment coexist with climate change policies? Ana Iglesias Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain EastAgri Annual Meeting 2010 Istanbul, 13-14 Oct 2010 Roundtable 3 (October 14, 900 – 1230 h) 1

2. 1 key issue can agricultural investment coexist with climate change policies? 2 challenges –Speak a common language (prioritise reasons for concern) –Improve dialogue between science, policy and society (define how, lessons from EU initiatives, measures that make sense today and in the future) (academic point of vies, some thoughts and some examples) 2

3.  Reasons for concern  Financial crisis, terror, inequality, degradation of the environment, …  Common element: global issues, what happens in one place has an influence on what happens in another place 3

4. Food importers are buying agricultural land of poor countries Defining the baseline is difficult 4

5. Reasons for concern (synthesis of global studies) Risks and opportunities Optimal crop zones Crop productivity Water conflict Soil salinity and erosion Damage by extremes Environmental degradation Pests and diseases High risk, highly certain Medium risk, some uncertainty Possible opportunity, if management is adequate “The adaptation gap” Can optimal management decrease vulnerability to climate? 5

6. HadCM3 A2HadCM3 B2 Example 1 Changes in land productivity (Iglesias et al 2007; 2010) We do not know how our world would be like in the future 6

7. Example 1 Crop yield changes under the HadCM3/HIRHAM A2 and B2 scenarios for the 2080s and for the ECHAM4/ RCA3 A2 and B2 scenarios for the 2080s and ECHAM4/ RCA3 A2 scenario for the 2020s compared to baseline (Iglesias et al. 2007; 2010) 7

8. 8 Complexity: need to understand local vulnerabilities

9. What might a low GHG diet look like? (Source: T. Garnett, 2009) –Not overeating –Much less meat and dairy –Seasonal field grown foods –Not eating certain foods –Reducing dependence on cold chain –Wasting less –Efficient cooking –Redefining quality 9

10. 10 6 Measures with high mitigation potential 1.Catch crops 2.Reduced tillage 3.Use crop residues 4.Optimising fertiliser use 5.Increase wood crops 6.Optimal pasture renewal 6 Evaluation criteria 1.Mitigation potential 2.Externalities 3.Barriers to implementation (tech., ec., social) 4.Interest to farmers 5.May be included in CAP? 6.Incentives? 10 Source: PICCMAT (6 th FP EU)

11. 11 Example 2: Water 0 40 80 120 2020 2050 2080 Population (millions) Additional population under extreme stress of water shortage University of Southampton 11

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15. http://ciesin.columbia.edu/publications.html 15 Example 3: Human displacement

16. Improve dialogue science, policy, society Example 4: Lessons from EU initiatives (EC White paper on adaptation; EU funded research) 16

17.  Agriculture cannot solve the problem, but can be part of the solution  EC white paper (2009): agriculture is the sector most impact in the EU, but the one that has largest potential for adaptation 17

18. Role of RD (CAP) A flexible framework Axis 1  Farm modernization  Restoring & prevention  Farm advisory services  Training Axis 2  Agri-env measures  Payments linked to WFD Axis 3  Diversification into non- agricultural activities Leader 18

19. natural water resources regulation infrastructure water availability non-conventional resources Policy naturenon-nature uses water recycling Policy essential productive Policy 19 Source: Garrote et al., 2010 Role of WFD

20. Example 4: Evaluation (and valuation) of policy action (Iglesias et al., 2010) HadCM3/HIRHAM B2 scenario, 2071-2100, (% yield change) Region Adap.Policy Urban / Env (1) Adap.Farm (2) Adapt.Policy Econ /Rural Dev (3) Boreal25 to 303435 to 40 Atlantic South-10 to -10-7-5 to 0 Cont. North0 to 545 to 10 Alpine10 to 202325 to 40 Med. South-50 to -2510 to 20 (1) Emphasis on water resources protection and urban development (2) Farm adaptation without policy support (private) (3) Emphasis on agricultural production and rural development 20

21.  Reasons for concern when we think about climate change  Consequences are too unequal  Uncertainty  Deciding on the solutions that are appropriate (the how issue) 21

22. ana.iglesias@upm.es thank you Presentation made at the: EastAgri Annual Meeting 2010 Istanbul, 13-14 Oct 2010 Roundtable 3 (October 14, 900 – 1230 h) 22