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G REYSTAR Rocky Mountain Commercial Real Estate Expo & DU Fall Forecast November 12, 2004.

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Presentation on theme: "G REYSTAR Rocky Mountain Commercial Real Estate Expo & DU Fall Forecast November 12, 2004."— Presentation transcript:

1 G REYSTAR Rocky Mountain Commercial Real Estate Expo & DU Fall Forecast November 12, 2004

2 Regional Offices Regional in Practice National in Presence Greystar Offices Regional Offices Greystar Presence (Management, Construction or Investment) Charleston, SC (Headquarters) Jacksonville, FL Tampa, FL Ft. Lauderdale, FLHouston, TX Dallas, TX Austin, TX Phoenix, AZ Denver, CO

3 Four Lines of Business Greystar G REYSTAR Development Investment Construction Property Management

4 G REYSTAR DEVELOPMENT Develop with a national perspective and local expertise Over $800 million of real estate developed over the last ten years Product types include multifamily housing, office, industrial, retail and hotels

5 G REYSTAR INVESTMENT Greystar sponsored investments approaching $2 Billion One-stop shopping for investors, bypassing traditional investment advisors Opportunistic. Create value at all stages of investment cycle and execute with in-house capabilities Investment partners include Crow Holdings, JMI, Oregon Pension Fund, Goldman Sachs, Prudential, Recap, FNMA and Morgan Stanley

6 G REYSTAR PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Manage over 60,000 units 12th largest property manager in nation (Source: NMHC) 3rd largest third-party multifamily manager 1,850 team members in 30 markets 5 largest clients: Sendera, Invesco, Fannie Mae, Investment Associates, and Merrill Lynch

7 G REYSTAR CONSTRUCTION Construction Volume: $150M 90% 3 rd party business 10 % construction services for Greystar projects Diverse product types: multifamily, senior living, hotels, and retail $100 million in Bonding Capacity

8 G REYSTAR Growth of the Real Estate Investment Market Amount of Money in the Market Stability of the Market Historical Real Estate Returns

9 G REYSTAR Cap Rate and Interest Rate Relationship National Denver

10 G REYSTAR Investment Analysis Case Study Yesterday’s Investment Today’s Reality Tomorrow’s Bet

11 G REYSTAR The Future The Rising Tide

12 G REYSTAR Growth of the Real Estate Investment Market Amount of Money in the Market Stability of the Market Historical Real Estate Returns

13 G REYSTAR May 17, 1993June 7, 2004 NAREIT Equity Total Return Index 1,4935,030 Morgan Stanley IndexNot yet invented; would have been 178 601 REIT Industry Total Equity Market Cap $16 Billion$240 Billion Largest Equity REIT (Market Cap) New Plan Realty Trust - $1.1 Billion SimonPropertyGroup - $14.0 Billion Dedicated REIT Securities Managers Cohen & Steers - $500 Million Fidelity RE - $417 Million Cohen & Steers - $15 Billion Fidelity RE - $3 Billion Standard & Poor’s IndicesREITs not included22 RE Companies Included REITS – 1993 Vs. 2004 Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update

14 G REYSTAR +63.2% Since January 97, the money supply has risen from $3.8 to $6.2 Trillion. Billions Capital Chasing Deals Source: Federal Reserve Board – M2

15 G REYSTAR Public Securities And Real Estate Performance S&P 500 Stock Index NASDAQ Comp. Index NAREIT REIT Index NCREIF Property Index 19941%-3%3%6% 199538%40%15%8% 199623% 35%10% 199733%22%20%14% 199829%40%-18%16% 199921%86%-5%11% Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update

16 G REYSTAR Public Securities And Real Estate Performance S&P 500 Stock Index NASDAQ Comp. Index NAREIT REIT Index NCREIF Property Index 2000-9%-39%26%11% 2001-13%-21%14%10% 2002-21%-28%5%7% 200326%50%39%9% 2004-1%-2%13%10% Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update

17 G REYSTAR Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update $100 Investment Performance - 1994 - 2004

18 G REYSTAR 10 – Year Treasury Yield Source: Federal Reserve

19 G REYSTAR Total U.S Sales Volume By Property Type (Billions) Source: Real Capital Analytics

20 G REYSTAR Source: CoStar Group and Apartment Appraisers Metro Denver Historical Real Estate Investment (millions)

21 G REYSTAR Source: CoStar Group and Apartment Appraisers Metro Denver Historical Price per Square Foot

22 G REYSTAR Source: Federal Reserve Historical Commercial Mortgage Flow

23 G REYSTAR Cap Rate and Interest Rate Relationship National

24 G REYSTAR National Cap Rates By Property Type Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update

25 G REYSTAR National Multifamily Cap Rate Vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update and Federal Reserve

26 G REYSTAR National Multifamily Cap Rate Vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update and Federal Reserve Spread 3.0 2.92.8 3.2 3.6 4.5 2.6

27 G REYSTAR National Office - CBD Cap Rate Vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update and Federal Reserve

28 G REYSTAR National Office - CBD Cap Rate Vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update and Federal Reserve Spread 3.0 2.9 2.6 4.4 5.4 3.5 2.8

29 G REYSTAR National Industrial Cap Rate Vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update and Federal Reserve

30 G REYSTAR National Industrial Cap Rate Vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update and Federal Reserve Spread 3.2 3.1 2.9 3.5 4.15.23.4

31 G REYSTAR Cap Rate and Interest Rate Relationship National Denver

32 G REYSTAR Source: CoStar Group and Apartment Appraisers Metro Denver Historical Cap Rates

33 G REYSTAR Investment Analysis Case Study Yesterday’s Investment Today’s Reality Tomorrow’s Bet

34 G REYSTAR The Summit at Flatirons Total Projected Costs: $61,500,000 Debt at 75%:$46,125,000 Equity:$15,375,000 500 Units 481,569 Total Square Feet Average Unit: 963 Sq.Ft.

35 G REYSTAR 2000 Proforma Gross Potential Rent$8,032,571 $1.39 PSF Vacancy($401,629) 5.0% Effective Gross Rent$7,630,942 Expenses($2,056,500) $4,113 NOI$5,574,442 Debt Service (8.25%)($3,805,313) Net Cash flow$1,769,130 Yield9.06% IRR26.35% Yield to Equity11.51% Reversion Cap Rate8.0%

36 G REYSTAR Today’s Reality Gross Potential Rent$6,934,594 $1.20 PSF Vacancy($1,386,919) 20% Effective Gross Rent$5,547,675 Expenses($2,095,500) $4,191 NOI$3,452,175 Debt Service (4.25%)($1,960,313) Net Cash flow$1,491,862 Yield5.61% IRR6.68% Yield to Equity9.7% Reversion Cap Rate5.75%

37 G REYSTAR Tomorrow’s projection Gross Potential Rent$6,934,594 $1.20 PSF Vacancy($693,459) 10% Effective Gross Rent$6,241,134 Expenses($2,158,365) $4,317 NOI$4,082,769 Debt Service (6.00%)($2,767,500) Net Cash flow$1,315,269 Yield6.64% IRR14.2% Yield to Equity8.55% Reversion Cap Rate6.25%

38 G REYSTAR Rising Tide Interest Rates Delinquency Rates Cap Rates Employment

39 G REYSTAR Rising Tide Interest Rates

40 G REYSTAR One Month LIBOR Forecast Source: Morgan Stanley

41 G REYSTAR Rising Tide Interest Rates Delinquency Rates

42 G REYSTAR Mortgage Delinquency Rates Source: Freddie Mac

43 G REYSTAR Rising Tide Interest Rates Delinquency Rates Cap Rates

44 G REYSTAR Rising Tide Interest Rates Delinquency Rates Cap Rates Employment

45 G REYSTAR Metro Denver Employment Growth 1994 - 2003 Source: Metro Denver EDC

46 G REYSTAR Rocky Mountain Commercial Real Estate Expo & DU Fall Forecast November 12, 2004


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