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“Sustainability & Climate Change” Challenges & Way forward…. Presented By: Nalin Rawal Chief - Business Head (Agribusiness Solutions)
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CLIMATE CHANGE - CHALLANGES Rapidly rising greenhouse gases Increasing land and sea temperatures Increased frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events Risk of fresh water availability Sustainability of agriculture and food security Rapidly rising greenhouse gases Increasing land and sea temperatures Increased frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events Risk of fresh water availability Sustainability of agriculture and food security
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CLIMATE CHANGE - IMPACT Warming expected to be more over areas in northern latitudes in 21st century Warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for next two decades Increases in the amount of precipitation in high latitudes, and decrease in most subtropical land regions. The Drought-affected areas will increase Hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events more frequent Weather predictions in Tropics will become more challenging Warming expected to be more over areas in northern latitudes in 21st century Warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for next two decades Increases in the amount of precipitation in high latitudes, and decrease in most subtropical land regions. The Drought-affected areas will increase Hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events more frequent Weather predictions in Tropics will become more challenging
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The length of growing seasons & yield in semi-arid and arid areas shall decrease In some countries 50% yield reduction is expected in rainfed agriculture by 2020 Crop yields to decrease by 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st century Crop yields expected to increase up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia Expected salinisation and desertification of agricultural land in drier areas of Latin America Increased incidences of Pest Outbreak due to warmer hot days and nights Productivity of important crops is projected to decrease The length of growing seasons & yield in semi-arid and arid areas shall decrease In some countries 50% yield reduction is expected in rainfed agriculture by 2020 Crop yields to decrease by 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st century Crop yields expected to increase up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia Expected salinisation and desertification of agricultural land in drier areas of Latin America Increased incidences of Pest Outbreak due to warmer hot days and nights Productivity of important crops is projected to decrease IMPACT – AGRICULTURE
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CLIMATE CHANGE - IMPACT INDIA India witnessing irregular monsoon / temperature pattern Large variability of rainfall in Rajasthan (semi arid regions) Unseasonal Dust Storms in some pockets More frequent extreme weather conditions change in sowing and harvesting timings / affecting quality of the produce Changing cropping pattern Emerging risk to horticultural crops Causing sudden outbreak in incidence of pest and diseases Climate Change Impact on Agriculture
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PROPOSED STRATEGIES
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ABOUT SKYMET Captive network of 2700+ Automated Weather Stations (AWS) Expertise in Crop yield forecasting & Risk Management In house Crop monitoring & yield modeling team In house Remote Sensing & GIS expertise Strong network of 160+ field staff in all major states Captive network of 2700+ Automated Weather Stations (AWS) Expertise in Crop yield forecasting & Risk Management In house Crop monitoring & yield modeling team In house Remote Sensing & GIS expertise Strong network of 160+ field staff in all major states An Agriculture Risk Solutions and Weather Monitoring Company
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PRESENCE 2700+ AWS Locations 15 States Head Office: Noida Regional Office(S) : 4 (Patna, Jaipur, Mumbai & Hyderabad)
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SOLUTIONS OFFERED Weather Forecasts – short, medium & long range Crop yield & acreage estimations Live weather data Crop Risk management services Supply chain solutions Weather Forecasts – short, medium & long range Crop yield & acreage estimations Live weather data Crop Risk management services Supply chain solutions
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Weather Forecast
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WEATHER FORECASTING 201220132014 Skymet Forecast95% of LPA103% of LPA91% of LPA Actual Monsoon93% of LPA105% of LPA89% of LPA 20122013
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MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECASTS Dry Spell Wet Spell Weekly Spread View (mm) Ambegaon (PUNE) – SAMPLE (June – July’13)
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GIS & UAV Based Crop - Acreage / Health Monitoring & Yield Forecasting
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Paddy Crop Sowing Status till mid June Paddy Crop Sowing Status till 1 st week of July Paddy Crop Sowing Status till End of July Crop Sowing Status end of Season CROP ACREAGE STATUS – PUNJAB PADDY (Kharif’2013)
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ACERAGE – PUNJAB DISTRICT WISE PADDY District wise Paddy acreage
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UAV Based Crop Monitoring
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UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE (UAV) Completely automatic & remote controlled Ability to reach maximum of 400m from ground Captures 1.4 Km x 1.4 Km image (ground coverage) Horizontal coverage in one flight 4Km radius Continuously captures video Continuously sends images at every 5 sec Provides Geo referenced images Completely automatic & remote controlled Ability to reach maximum of 400m from ground Captures 1.4 Km x 1.4 Km image (ground coverage) Horizontal coverage in one flight 4Km radius Continuously captures video Continuously sends images at every 5 sec Provides Geo referenced images
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UAV IMAGES – 150M
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UAV IMAGES – 100M
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UAV IMAGES – 75M
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UAV IMAGES – 50M Groundnut Cotton
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WEB PORTAL | UAV BASED FARM MONITORING
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PROCESS FLOW - CROP YIELD ESTIMATION
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FINAL CROP ESTIMATE – CROP CUTTING EXPERIMENTS Skymet provides Acreage & Final yield estimation (95% accuracy)
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GUNA – SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF SOYABEAN CROP Satellite Image – Landsat 8 Acquisition Date – 21 th Sep 2014 District – Guna Resolution - 30M - Soybean Legend - Acreage as per Govt. 25 th Sep’141.95 (Lac Ha) Remote Sensing based Acreages1.83 (Lac Ha) Est. Yield as per CCE/Field Survey1143 (Kg/Ha) Est. Production2.1 (Lac Ton)
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Real Time Crop Advisory
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Current Weather & short range Forecast (at Block / Taluka/ Distt level ) Agri-Domain Expertise Real Time Agro- Advisory MODEL – REAL TIME CROP ADVISORY
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Current Weather & Forecast Actual Condition Temp-43 0 C ; RH-20% No Rain / Moisture stress Crop Advisory 1)Drain water from nursery and fill fresh water on daily basis 2) Delay Transplanting by -7 days GIS image Paddy (Pusa Basmati 1121) Farmers Retailers Dealers Sales Employee Marketing person Distribution person Seed Production MODEL – REAL TIME CROP ADVISORY
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Pest Forecasting Model
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PEST FORECAST MODEL The model combines three parameters of the disease triangle: Crop (host) Pathogen (present at field) Environment (monitored by Automated Weather Station) Hourly observations Specific geographies Environment GIS or UAV mapping Crop diagnostic Crop stage Pest and disease infestation alert Real time basis Pest/Disease
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BROWN PLANT HOPPER – PADDY Brown Plant Hopper (BPH) BPH Life Cycle Eggs Hatchability highest at 25°C BPH Population Max 28-30°C RH >70 High Nitrogen levels Paddy Monitor using AWS Crop stage information
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BENEFITS Predicts likely occurrence or attack of different pest & diseases Accurate advisories on prophylactic measure to prevent disease/pest incidence Improve marketing activities and inventory planning at the dealer/retail point Mobile advisories to suggest company’s products to farmers Increase revenue for the company Strengthen company’s brand image
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Crop Risk Management
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CUSTOMISED CROP RISK MANAGEMENT Drawbacks: Inadequate product Cryptic payout calculations Opaque payouts Mistrust on insurance Benefits: Customized product Transparent payout calculations Equitable payouts Trust build-up on insurance EXISTINGPROPOSED
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PRODUCT CUSTOMIZATION (PEPSICO) – POTATO (PATIALA) Earlier ProductModified Product
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TRANSPARENCY – INFORMATION & PAYOUTS
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Agri input Supply Chain / Distribution
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Paddy Crop Sowing Status till mid June Paddy Crop Sowing Status till 1 st week of July Paddy Crop Sowing Status till End of July Crop Sowing Status end of Season ACREAGE STATUS – PUNJAB PADDY (Kharif’2013)
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District wise Time wise Paddy acreage DISTRICT WISE ACREAGE STATUS – PUNJAB PADDY (Kharif’2013)
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FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION PATTERN - I
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Landsat Satellite Image Resolution: 30M Spatial Distribution of Paddy Crop in Zira Block - Firozpur Pady Area in Zira Block is 12,692 Ha. FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION PATTERN - II
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THANK YOU Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd Plot no 10/11, Sector-125, Noida www.skymetweather.com info@skymetweather.com
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