1. Demographic Dividend: Supply-side View and Evidence on Chinese Growth CAI Fang Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

2. 1. Fast Growth alongside Rapid Demographic Transition

3. Very Low Fertility for Many Years (and two features)

4. Age Structure Changes Faster (WAP rise & dependence decline)

5. Decomposing China’s Growth (preventing diminishing return on K)

6. High Potential + Strong Demand = Fast Actual Growth

7. 2. Disappearance of Demographic Dividend

8. Reversed Demographic Factors (WAP shrinks & dependence rises)

9. As Result, One, Return on K Decreases, Estimated by Various Studies

10. Two, L Becomes Scarce and Wage of Unskilled Workers Increase

11. Three, Room for Reallocation Efficiency (TFP) Becomes Smaller

12. Finally, Potential Growth Rate Slows Down and Slowdown Will Continue

13. 3. From Demographic Dividend To Reform Dividend

14. Since It Is Supply-side Factors Cause Slowdown, PGR Can Be Increased

15. By Reforms to Increase Labor Supply, Human Capital, TFP, & Hopefully TFR

16. Future Scenarios of Potential Growth Rates under Dif. Assumptions

17. Thank You!