Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published byEllen Newton Modified over 9 years ago
1
Recommendation: Buy Chevron and Occidental Petroleum (CVX & OXY)
2
Integrated: Chevron 2 nd largest US traded oil company by market cap. $198B in 2010 revenue, $19B net income 2.763B in net oil equivalent production 58,000 employees and 4,000 service station employees
3
Chevron: Strong Financials Ticker Mkt. Cap. Div. Yield 5Yr. Div. Growth FCF Yield WACC ROIC P/BP/E 3Yr Avg ROE FCF Mgn 3Yr Avg Total Debt/Total Equity Sum (Lower is better) XOM360B4 th 1 st 7 th 6 th 1 st 2 nd 30 CVX190B2 nd 3 rd 2 nd 6 th 2 nd 1 st 23 COP88B1 st 2 nd 5 th 4 th 6 th 3 rd 8 th 34 HES18B6 th 7 th 6 th 7 th 1 st 3 rd 5 th 6 th 47
4
Chevron: Strong Financials MeasureCVXTop 4 Mkt. Cap. Avg. Dividend Yield3.38%2.73% 5Yr Net Div. Growth9.11%7.41% FCF Yield7.11%4.48% WACC ROIC14.64%10.34% P/B1.621.53 P/E8.248.87 P/E 5yr Avg. minus Current P/E 1.092.20 3Yr Avg. ROE19.53%13.73% FCF Mgn. 3Yr Avg.3.272.74 Total Debt/Total Equity9.89%20.56%
5
CVX: Dividend History
6
CVX: Replacement Ratio
7
CVX SWOT Analysis Strengths Very large, well established Moderate Beta of 0.98 Strong financials; good track record in most aspects Weaknesses 2010 Replacement ratio < 1, but 10 year avg. = 1.01 Price correlated to Brent while Brent-WTI spread at highs Opportunities Reserve growth through acreage acquisitions Oil consumption increases abroad Threats Tax increases Environmental concerns Global economic weakness
8
Prev Close:94.66 1y Target Est:108 52wk Range:80.41 - 109.94 Avg Vol (3m):10,954,200 Market Cap:189.6B P/E (ttm):8.33 EPS (ttm):11.45 Div & Yield:3.12 (3.38%) Forward P/E: 7.24 CVX Investment Information
9
E & P: Occidental Petroleum Largest US traded E&P by market cap: 61.57B, nearly 2x as large as next largest Anadarko at 32.8B Highest dividend yield (2.45%) in top 6 US E&P, 2 nd in top 16 3.36B barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) proven reserves as of 2010 end. 19B in 2010 net sales, 4.53B net income Has outperformed S&P last 12 years (though currently trailing S&P YTD)
10
Occidental: Strong Financials MeasureOXYTop 4 Mkt. Cap. Avg. Dividend Yield2.45%1.24% 5Yr Net Div. Growth18.299.15 FCF Yield2.52%0.00% WACC ROIC12.63%9% P/B1.751.39 P/E10.4914.14 P/E 5yr Avg. minus Current P/E 4.987.45 3Yr Avg. ROE15.11%7.49% FCF Mgn. 3Yr Avg.23.478.54 Total Debt/Total Equity12.08%34.43%
11
Occidental: Reserve Growth
12
Occidental: Dividend Growth
13
Occidental: Sales Growth
14
Occidental: Correlation to Oil (Timing)
15
SWOT Analysis Strengths Largest US E&P Strong reserve, sales, and dividend growth Strong financials compared to peers Weaknesses New CEO in 2011 (unproven but promoted from COO) Opportunities May be currently underpriced Continuing oil shale acquisitions and international plays Threats Tax increases Environmental concerns Global economic weakness
16
Prev Close:75.72 1y Target Est:113 52wk Range:66.36 - 117.89 Avg Vol (3m):5,976,330 Market Cap:61.54B P/E (ttm):10.49 EPS (ttm):7.08 Div & Yield:1.84 (2.60%) Forward P/E: 8.47 OXY Investment Information
17
Investment Theses Chevron is a large cap integrated financially outperforming its peers. A respectable dividend with a history of growth protects against the downside while a moderate beta and solid correlation to oil prices should cause it to also do well in an up market. Occidental Petroleum is a large cap E&P with international production diversification and is a financial standout among its peers. A beta slightly over one paired with an acceptable dividend give it an upside and downside protection. Now appears to be a good time to buy considering the tight correlation to oil and the discount to said correlation.
18
Portfolio Placement / Recommendation $/SH.SH. #TOTAL $WT.BETA WT. BETA STD. DEV. WT. STD. TTM DIV. $ DIV. YIELD WT. YIELD DESCRIPTION AMLP 15.335053550.12760.800.100.020.0030.990.060.01 Pipeline ETF CVX 94.6110094610.22540.770.170.060.0133.000.030.01 Oil Integrated FEN 26.1620052320.12470.920.110.050.0061.850.070.01 Pipeline CEF OXY 78.5610078560.18721.020.190.110.0211.760.020.00 Oil E&P PXJ 17.4740069880.16651.340.220.100.0160.080.00 Oil Services Fund VPU 70.7410070740.16860.610.100.030.0052.690.040.01 US Utility Fund TOTAL $41,966 $10.36 WT. AVG. BETA0.91 STD. DEV. 0.064 YIELD3.56%
19
BUY 100 shares of CVX at Limit Price of $95.00 ($9,500, 2% of portfolio) Holding Period/Exit Strategy: 2+ years; reassess thesis at least every three months. BUY 100 shares of OXY at Limit Price of $80.00 ($8,000, 1.75% of portfolio) Holding Period/Exit Strategy: 2+ years; reassess thesis at least every three months. Portfolio Placement / Recommendation
20
Sector : Energy Projected Holdings: AMLP, FEN, CVX, PXJ, OXY Target Sector Allocation: 8.54%, ~$38,860 Projected Sector Allocation: 7.62%, ~$34,660 Remaining Allocation: 1.92%, $4,200 Portfolio Placement / Recommendation
Similar presentations
© 2025 SlidePlayer.com. Inc.
All rights reserved.