1. Harnessing the Demographic Dividend
Accelerating socioeconomic transformation in Uganda
Presented by John Ssekamatte-Ssebuliba, PhD
National Planning Authority

2. Outline Background to demographic dividend initiative in Uganda
Objectives and process for conducting the Uganda demographic dividend study
Key findings of the demographic dividend study
Implications and policy options
Next Steps

3. Uganda Vision 2040
“A transformed Ugandan society from a peasant to a modern and prosperous country within 30 years” with a per capita GDP of US9,500 by 2040.
Vision 2040 recognizes Uganda’s rapid population growth, young age structure and consequent high child dependency burden among the threats to the achievement of socioeconomic development
Vision 2040 pronounced “harnessing the demographic dividend” as one of the strategies for benefiting from the country’s abundant and youthful population

4. Background
Uganda is a signatory to the September 2014 “Addis Ababa Declaration on Population and Development in Africa Beyond 2014”
Endorsed the regional report “Harnessing the Demographic Dividend: The future we want for Africa”.
To domesticate the Addis Ababa declaration and as part of the process of developing the 2nd National Development Plan, NPA and its partners commissioned the demographic dividend study to inform its strategic thinking and actions

5. Can Uganda emulate the economic miracle achieved by the Asian Tigers?

6. Can Uganda emulate the Malaysian development path?
Indicator
1960
2010
Malaysia
Uganda
Per Capita GNP
299 62
8,754
506
Total Fertility Rate
6.0
7.1
2.0
6.2
Under five mortality (deaths/1000 births) 85
220 9
151
Net Secondary School Enrolment Rate (%) 35 10 96 23
Gross Tertiary Enrolment Rate (%) 4
0.54 37

7. Uganda Is Ripe To Initiate And Fast-track Its Demographic Dividend Journey
Steady economic growth over the past decade (6.4%)
Discovery of oil and other minerals
development of economic infrastructure and increased foreign direct investment (FDI)
Steady progress in reducing child mortality and increasing demand for family planning and smaller families
Growing regional economic integration and emergence of non-traditional development partners
National focus on addressing pervasive development bottlenecks from a long-term perspective
Increased political stability and democratic culture

8. Study Objectives
To review demographic and economic opportunities and challenges and assess their implications for attainment of Uganda Vision 2040
Assess prospects of harnessing the demographic dividend and its potential role towards attainment of Uganda Vision 2040
Demonstrate policy options for optimizing chances of earning the demographic dividend in Uganda

9. Study Approach Led by the National Planning Authority
Consultative and inclusive Process
Steering Committee comprising 10 institutions oversaw the project
Broader stakeholder body comprising 40 institutions gave reality check and feedback
Technical team of 7 experts conducted the analyses and wrote technical report
Project was carried out between March and June 2014

10. Methodology
Review of past and current economic and demographic opportunities and challenges
Modeling of potential impact of the demographic dividend on socioeconomic development using the Future Group’s DemDiv modeling tool
Done through a workshop involving all technical team members
Determine key policy options for harnessing the demographic dividend

11. Modeling Policy Scenarios
Key Characteristics
Business as Usual
Slow progress in economic reforms and demographic transition to continue
Economic Emphasis
Maximize Uganda’s global economic competitiveness to the levels envisaged in V2040 benchmark countries but no particular attention on population issues
Economic Emphasis and Moderate FP and Education
Maximize global economic competitiveness and improve investments in education and moderate investments to reduce fertility to the V2040 fertility target of 4 children per woman
Combined Economic and FP/Education emphasis
Simultaneous prioritization of economic reforms and family planning & education to the current levels of the V2040 benchmark countries on both

12. Business as Usual Scenario
Status quo characterised by slow progress in economic reforms, human capital development and reduction in fertility to 2040.
Targets for Economic and education indicators are higher than baseline indicators by 30% of the progress needed to attain the current average indicators for V2040 Benchmark countries
Malaysia, South Korea, South Africa, and Mauritius
FP to grow at an average 0.53 percentage points per year (achieved over the past decade)

13. Economic Emphasis Scenario
Maximizes Uganda’s global economic competitiveness and productive efficiency, and governance as outlined in V2040.
Target economic indicators for 2040 are average economic indicators for the four V2040 benchmark countries
Education and family planning indicators held at the same level as the Business as usual scenario in order to examine the net effect of prioritizing economic reforms

14. Economic Emphasis & Moderate FP/Education Scenario
The V2040 model that maximizes economic reforms to the Economic Emphasis scenario
Targets for Education indicators are higher than baseline indicators by 50% of the progress needed to attain the average for V2040 benchmark countries.
Contraceptive prevalence rate to increase to 45%, representing an average annual increase of 0.84 percentage points
Education and Family Planning levels to produce the V2040 Total Fertility Rate target of 4 children per women

15. Combined Economic and Family Planning/Education Emphasis Scenario
Simultaneous prioritization of economic reforms, education, health, family planning, and governance
Economic and education indicators set at the same level as the average for the V2040 benchmark countries
FP use to increase to 67.1% by 2040, (representing a 50% increase in the FP progress achieved between 2006 and 2011)
Total fertility to reach 2.0 by 2040 (average for Asian Tigers)

16. Key Modeling Results

17. Projected growth in per capita GDP by policy scenario

18. Econ Emphasis & Moderate FP
The Combined scenario presents the best case for Uganda to achieve V2040 goals
Indicator
Baseline
Business as Usual
Economic Emphasis
Econ Emphasis & Moderate FP
Combined Econ & FP
Total Population (millions) 33 93 85 71
Total fertility Rate
6.2
4.8
4.0
2.2
Population <15 (%) 52 45 44 35
Dependency Ratio
1.1
0.9
0. 91
0.8
0.6
Per capita GDP (USD)
506
896
5,602
6,697
8,821

19. Policy Options For Harnessing The Demographic Dividend In Uganda

20. Accelerating fertility decline
Reinforce political will and FP2020 commitments to in crease prioritization and investments in FP
Enhance capacity of FP programmes to address all barriers of demand, access and use of FP among married and unmarried couples, and underserved populations (reduce high unmet need for FP)
Strong facility and community based FP services
Delay onset of child bearing by promoting school progression and access to FP by adolescents
Reinforce interventions to reduce child mortality including immunizations, IMCI, nutrition, ITNs

21. Improving the health status of the population and labour force
Increase budgetary allocations investments in health
Address health workforce crisis and ensure commodity security and efficient health infrastructure
Address cultural factors inhibiting demand and use of services
Reinforce public-private partnerships in health care delivery
Reinforce capacity to address pervasive diseases like HIV/AIDS and emerging ones like non-communicable diseases
Support development of health information systems and use of data/evidence in decision-making

22. Fast-track education reforms to have skilled and innovative labour force
Increase budgetary allocations to education to improve infrastructure, teaching materials, and hiring of teachers
Strategic shift to universal secondary and higher education
Address underlying causes of deteriorating quality of education at all three levels (primary, secondary and tertiary).
Reform education curricula and teaching methods to focus on innovation, skills development, science and technology, and entrepreneurship.
Address the huge geographical inequities in education coverage and gender differences at tertiary level.

23. Employment and Job Creation Issues
Uganda has had sustained economic growth over the past decade but poverty levels have declined modestly
Most people are under-employed, particularly women and youth
Fastest growing sectors have low job multiplier effects and most jobs have been created in the low value informal sector
High skill mismatch between what the market requires and what the education system produces
Having a larger, healthier, and better-educated workforce will only bear economic fruit if the extra workers can find jobs
While Uganda’s economy has grown significantly over recent years and will continue to do so into the future, this has not translated into better jobs
The vast majority of Uganda’s labor force remains employed in subsistence agriculture and informal sector. The non-agricultural informal sector alone had 14.1 percent (2.1 million)
To take advantage of the DD, Uganda will need to create good jobs at a fast rate to absorb the growing labor force.

24. Enhancing economic productivity and job creation
Promote investment in industries that have strong job multiplier effects – build industrialization from the agricultural base through value-addition industries.
Invest in development of economic infrastructure including energy, transportation, and communication
Improve urban planning and provision of basic social services and stable livelihoods for the urban poor and enhance urban planning and development to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), which is key for job creation
Attract more private investment into labor-intensive traded goods industries [tax regimes could provide positive incentives for employment-intensive enterprises]
We need to mobilise political support for budgetary reform in the agriculture sector
The traded goods sector is usually the source of much more rapid productivity growth than the non-traded goods sector and the growth of the traded goods sector is not constrained by the small size of the domestic market.
road infrastructure to connect areas of production and areas of consumption

25. Enhance governance and accountability
Reform macroeconomic policies and financial institutions to promote private savings and investment and attract FDI
Effect industrial policies, strategies and interventions to promote growth of indigenous firms and entrepreneurship
Adopt zero tolerance for corruption and institute strong accountability institutions to ensure that the law is enforced and those responsible for corruption held to account
Strengthen governance and national security to optimize investor confidence
Improve efficiency and accountability in delivery of public services by improving local technical capacity ineffective priority setting, resource allocation, program design, implementation and monitoring.

26. “YES, Uganda can harness a sizable demographic dividend that would be valuable in achieving the socioeconomic transformation envisaged in V2040 IF all development sectors join hands to walk the talk in investing in and implementing interventions in V2040 & this study”

27. Next Steps
Produce advocacy materials from the technical report and other demographic dividend studies
Engage Sectors for Sector Development Plans
Conduct strategic advocacy, including during the FP Conference
Ensure all sectoral teams working on the and national Development Plan are exposed to the DD evidence and they apply it in their planning
Conduct further analyses to determine specific policy actions and update current analysis as new data, analytical tools and issues emerge

28. Acknowledgements National Planning Authority (NPA)
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)
Population Secretariat
Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS)
Partners in Population and Development - Africa Regional Office
African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEP)
USAID Health Policy Project, Futures Group
School of Public Health, Makerere University
Economic Policy Research Centre, Makerere University

29. For God and my Country