1. CAN WE AFFORD ZERO CARBON HOMES? Paddy Conaghan Paddyconaghan@hoarelea.com LOW CARBON COMMUNITIES CONFERENCE – 13 JULY 2011

2. WHAT PARETO SAYS! “80% of effects come from 20% of causes”. Vilfredo Pareto A GOOD BUY A POOR BUY

3. Allowable Solutions On-site low/zero carbon energy and connected heat Energy efficiency Carbon Compliance 10 – 14 kgCO 2 /m 2 depending on dwelling type 2016 CARBON COMPLIANCE... But it only considers Operational Carbon

4. SO WHAT ARE WE DISCUSSING? HOMES – from 2003 to 2050 22% 78% Old homes will still outweigh new ones 4:1 in 2050 – when we’re committed to cut emissions by 80%. 26M 7M

5. WHAT IS THE WHOLE CARBON EFFECT OF POLICY? Operational & Embodied CO2 targets for homes (ref 2004 ‘stock) Additional Cost of new homes (ref 2004 ‘stock) Average kgCO2/Home

6. WHERE POLICY TAKES CARBON EMISSIONS FROM HOMES Using predicted old/new housing numbers to 2050 Using 2 options for CO2 targets for new homes but doing nothing about old home stock. New homes over CfSH 4(+)have tiny effect on CO2 emissions from housing to 2050. Old homes dominate CO2 emissions to 2050 – unless they’re ‘fixed’. Nothing worthwhile happens with ‘heroic’ new home targets alone. HOMES – CARBON TRAJECTORY TO 2050

7. COST/BENEFIT OF OUR NEW HOMES POLICY (Operational & Embodied Carbon Saved (ref 2003 Stock) PARETO’S LINE GOOD BUY POOR BUY The 2016-2050 bit of the plan is poor value. It would be far better to direct its extra costs to community solutions and kick-start retrofit 2006-10 2010-16 2016 (+) Pre- 2003 COST VERSUS CO2 SAVING FOR SUCCESSIVE MEASURES

8. Allowable Solutions On-site low/zero carbon energy and connected heat Energy efficiency Carbon Compliance 10 – 14 kgCO 2 /m 2 depending on dwelling type 2016 CARBON COMPLIANCE

9. Allowable Solutions Community Energy or on-site low/zero carbon energy Energy efficiency Carbon Compliance Relax Carbon Compliance if new home builders fund retrofit to bring magnitudes more CO2 cuts than lost by relaxation. 2016 CARBON COMPLIANCE

10. DISCUSSION Government looks to commercial developers to provide most new homes 250,000 new homes/year are needed Even in boom years, <170,000 homes are delivered. With the surcharge for ‘zero carbon’ new homes, this delivery gap will not close. AND…. The focus on new homes misses ‘the elephant in the room’ – inefficient existing homes. 75% of existing homes are owner occupied. Stimuli to retrofit have had small little take up. Will the Green Deal work? Pareto lives! Diverting money from carbon intensive ‘green bolt-ons’ in new homes to retrofit subsidy would produce a far greater carbon reduction and stimulate the creation of a retrofit industry.

11. Paddy Conaghan E: paddyconaghan@hoarelea.com THE END….. THANKS