1. Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) Political feasibility assessment framework Eric Massey – IVM Presented at the UN Climate Conference Bali, Indonesia December 7, 2007

2. 2 What is political feasibility? Political feasibility is a term widely used which we have all heard. What does it mean though exactly? How can it be assessed, especially in the context of sectoral or technology oriented agreements?

3. 3 What is political feasibility? Policy proposal being acceptable to all parties such that it can overcome enough resistance to move from the stage of an idea to agreement. Idea Agreement Factors Constraints

4. 4 What is political feasibility? Idea Agreement Factors Constraints If we can pinpoint the factors & constraints around a specific proposal we can understand if it might be politically feasible.

5. 5 Influencing Factors Actors: Who are the parties involved, what are there motivations, what are their beliefs and what is their bargaining power? Resources: What resources materiel or otherwise are involved and can be exchanged or will be needed to reach an agreement? Time frame & Timing: What is the time frame for the proposal? Is the proposal being advocated at the right moment? Leverage points: Is there anything to make the proposal more attractive?

6. 6 Constraints (1) Economic What are the economic resources associated with the proposal? What financial obligations associated with accepting the proposal? Do the parties have those resources? Physical & Technical Are there any physical/technical barriers? Does receiving party have adequate infrastructure? Does receiving party have enough technical resources for maintenance of proposal? What kind of constraints will a TOA or SA encounter and have to overcome?

7. 7 Constraints (2) Legal & Contractual Is the institutional (legal & regulatory) infrastructure there to accept proposal? Will laws need to be made or changed? Would the proposal require regulatory approval? Are there prior contractual agreements that could hinder the proposal? Social & Equity Could the proposal be socially controversial? Is it socially acceptable? Will it be seen as equitable or fair? Are the parties being offered enough?

8. 8 Constraints (3) Institutional & Governance Is the country politically and economically stable? Will corruption be an issue? Are there any other issues of governance that need to be addressed?

9. 9 Political feasibility frameworkConstraints Actor 1 Actor 2 Economic Physical/technical Legal/contractual Social/equity Institutional Constraints Table Factors list 1.Factor A 2.Factor B

10. 10 Case 4: Car efficiency Key issues: Car companies have resources but will have to make profound change & use of them Time frame appears adequate to implement agreement & timing is good Leverage points of first mover advantage to capture demand from customers (e.g. Toyota hybrid cars)

11. 11 Thank You Grazie Merci Dank U Danke Tack Gracias Spasibo Email: eric.massey@ivm.vu.nl