1. Task 3.2 – (Land Use)/Spatial Indicators of Vulnerable communities Friday 27 th April 2012 Patrik Karlsson Nyed GIS analyst, KU

2. Case cities St Louis Dar Es Salaam

3. Main objectives Reveal spatial indicators which are relating to the vulnerability of communities. Map vulnerable communities and high risk areas.

4. Indicators What are they? Quantitative entities that provide information of wider significance than is actually measured TIME-EFFICIENT decision-making and planning (instead of qualitative methods) Comparisons across SPACE and over TIME # Pinpoint most vulnerable communities – Space # Development between years – Time Why do we need them?

5. Task 3.2 – Workflow indicators Inventory First selection Hazard-type relevant Second selection Site-specific Check data availability Geodata processing Analysis/Validation Map making Sharing with stakeholders Expert survey Literature study Local expert survey Ranking/Weighting? African partners Other sources (e.g. WWW) OOA (Digitizing/Segmentation) Field surveys Purchase  Decide MMU Reduction indicators Vulnerability Index 1 2a 2b 3

6. Workflow – step 1 Expert survey/Literature study  Long list of potential indicators  Less long list of potential indicators Exclude indicators less relevant to hazard type Inventory First selection Hazard-type relevant

7. Workflow – step 2a Second selection Site-specific Local expert survey  Less long list of potential indicators  Short list of potential indicators Municipality officials and University staff Community representatives

8. Workflow – step 2b Check data availability African partners Other sources (e.g. WWW) OOA (Digitizing/Segmentation) Field surveys Purchase  Task 2.2 – UMT (Urban Morphology Types)  Task 2.1 – Construction material buildings  Task 1.3 – DEM (Digital Elevation Models)

9. Workflow – step 3 Geodata processing – Quantification of indicators using GIS Geodata processing Analysis/Validation Map making  Short list of potential indicators Mobility/Accessibility -Network Analysis Proportion green areas Analysis/Validation – Stepwise regression analysis using vulnerability data from national census as validation  A few indicators (explaining most of the variation in vulnerability) Map making (overlay)  Create Vulnerability Index (using the final set of indicators)  Vulnerability of communities  High risk areas

10. Spatial Indicator Preconditions (some necessary, others desired) - Quantifiable in space - Express variation - Comprehensible - Valid (measure what it is intended to) - Achievable?  ‘Short-cut proxy’ Mobility/Accessibility -Network Analysis  Proportion paved roads -Field survey (doorway threshold)  Official records of previous flood areas Previous Hazard Experience Sex ratio Pop. size ??? Maps – Comparison across SPACE Repeatable – Comparison over TIME Constraints: Data access Budget Know-how  Future accessibility

11. Thanks for the attention