1. Learning from the Past to Protect the Future: Creating our Nation’s Next Earthquake & Tsunami Survival Stories John D. Schelling, Interim Mitigation & Recovery Section Manager Washington State Emergency Management john.schelling@mil.wa.gov 253.512.7071 Twitter: @jdschelling

2. Where We Have Been? The Past…

3. Great 1964 Alaska Earthquake & Tsunami: Effects in Washington State  March 27, 1964 @ 5:36 p.m.  Magnitude 9.2  Most powerful earthquake recorded in U.S. history and second largest of all time (Chile M9.5, 1960)  Resulting tsunami peak was about 220 feet in Valdez inlet and many others locations were over 50 feet  Entire west coast and Hawaii affected from tsunami, especially California and Oregon.  The wave height in Washington was about 10-12 feet Highway 109 bridge over Copalis River, WA Houses torn apart at Pacific Beach, WA

4. Today is the 13 th Anniversary of the Nisqually Earthquake  February 28, 2001 @ 10:54 a.m.  Magnitude 6.8  11 miles northeast of Olympia, Washington  31.6 miles deep  Felt from British Columbia to Montana  Amazingly, there were no deaths, ~400 injuries  Estimated losses of $1 - $4 billion Courtesy: USGS, 2001

5. Where Have Others Been Recently? The Not so Distant Past…

6. Canterbury, New Zealand Earthquakes  September 4, 2010 @ 4:35 a.m.  Magnitude 7.1  25 miles west of Christchurch near Darfield  6 miles deep  February 22, 2011 @12:51 p.m.  Magnitude 6.3  3 miles southwest of Christchurch  3 miles deep Christchurch

7. Pre-Earthquake: Christchurch Central Business District (CBD)

8. During Earthquake: Christchurch Central Business District

9. “Downtown” Christchurch 2-Years Later

10. Post-Earthquake: (Recovery in Process) Christchurch Central Business District

11. We have come a long way from 1964…and even 2001 The Present…

12.  LOW Risk = NO Risk Christchurch Teaches Us That: USGS, 2008

13. Key Lessons from Christchurch: Hazard Assessment & Pre-Disaster Mitigation Really Matter…and Really Work!  Hazard Assessment is Essential:  Prior to this earthquake sequence, the Greendale Fault had not been identified.  Mitigation Works: “ For example, the mitigation measures put in place after a vulnerability study (1994-97) cost $6 million but are estimated to have saved $60-65 million in direct asset replacement costs as result of the earthquakes in addition to the contribution to rapid restoration of services.”  Source: Review of the Civil Defence Emergency Management Response to the 22 February Christchurch Earthquake, 29 June 2012 Source: GNS Science, 2011

14.  Social Science needs to be part of the process, and it needs to play an equal role.  The USGS Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) project is a GREAT start, but needs to be scaled to a national level in order to be most effective.  With the potential use of Earthquake Early Warning, we NEED a holistic approach…one that considers not only how to get a warning to people, but effectively teaches them WHAT TO DO once it arrives. New Zealand Teaches Us Another Lesson: Life Safety Community Resilience Informed Risk Reduction Social Science Physical Science

15. Effective Branding of Seismic Safety: Great ShakeOut Earthquake Safety Drills Total Registration (worldwide) 2013: 24.7 million 2012: 19.5 million 2011: 12.5 million 2010: 8.0 million 2009: 6.9 million 2008 5.4 million 2013 Official ShakeOut Regions 21 Regions (+5 from 2012) 44 U.S. States/ Territories (+20)

16. Washington State Earthquake Scenario Catalog: A Virtual Playbook for Natural Hazards Management USGS ShakeMap FEMA Loss Estimation (HAZUS) Report USGS Community Vulnerability Information Scenario Fact Sheet (EMD, USGS, FEMA, NOAA) Suite of Materials (accessible at www.dnr.wa.gov):

17. Washington State Earthquake Scenario Catalog: Impacts Viewer for Planning, Preparedness, Mitigation, & Response

18. But we still have a long way to go! How do we get there from here? (as quickly and inexpensively as possible…of course) The Future…

19. What would a repeat of the 1964 Alaska Earthquake and Tsunami Look Like in the Lower 48? The Cascadia Earthquake Scenario  Magnitude 9.0  Felt region-wide  Shaking intensities greatest along coast & where local conditions amplify seismic waves  Injuries: 30,000 +  Fatalities: 10,000 +  Economic losses: $81+ Billion in Oregon & Washington alone. Image Source: USGS Source: Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup (www.crew.org)

20.  How do you get recovery underway more rapidly and get your economy moving? Don’t let infrastructure break to begin with.  Recovery Planning…in advance. Marching boldly towards Resilience…one state at a time

21.  Both the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) and the Tsunami Warning & Education Act (TWEA) are critical to helping states and local communities succeed in both identifying and reducing near- and long-term risk and increasing life-safety.  These two key laws provide the necessary underpinning for a coordinated and effective national strategy for to reduce our future earthquake and tsunami losses. The Most Effective Way to a Resilient Future is Through NEHRP and TWEA

22.  National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP)  NEHRP provides a strategic nation direction and helps marshal sometimes disconnected entities in a common direction  Without a reauthorization, agencies such as FEMA do not have a line item in their budget for these activities.  We are seeing the consequences of cash matching requirements…consider in-kind to ensure that all states can participate in the program  Tsunami Warning & Education Act (TWEA)  Funding that supports hazard assessment, warning capability, and community-based preparedness may now be in greater jeopardy simply due to National Weather Service reorganization The Most Effective Way to a Resilient Future is Through NEHRP and TWEA.

23. With every disaster comes opportunity. Will we seize our opportunities to create a better, more resilient nation before or after our next big earthquake(s) and tsunami(s)?