1. African THORPEX Status By Aida Diongue-Niang Senegal Meteorological Agency THORPEX AR1 Rapporteur African THORPEX Regional Committee co-chair ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 1 ICSC-9

2. Relatively poor performance on modeling systems over Africa (particularly in Tropical Africa): 1.Misrepresentation of some key processes (NWP & Climate models ) 2.Poor observing network (+ transmission failure ) + An important Gap in NWP model development and use in Africa THORPEX-Africa: context and motivation  Impact on forecast and service delivery for societal and economic needs THORPEX-Africa aims at contributing to :  Improve forecasts and reduce the adverse effects of hydro-meteorological related natural disasters in Africa and  Promote multidisciplinary collaboration between research, operations, applications and user communities through studies in line with societal and economical needs in Africa. 2 ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011

3. DAOS1: Design of an optimum network in Africa DAOS2: Use of non conventional observing systems DAOS3: Improvement of telecommunications facilities PDP2: Contributing to the Development of Seamless forecast by filling the gap in intraseasonnal timescales PDP1: Predictive Skill of high impact weather SERA1: High-impact weather database SERA2: Forecast verification and cost/benefit assessments TIGGE Predictability and Dynamical Processes Societal and Economic Research Application observing systems 3 HIWIS 3 ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 THORPEX-Africa Implementation, Plan, 2009

4. THORPEX-Africa 1st Workshop, 5-8 October 2009, ICTP, Trieste Sponsor (THORPEX Trust Fund, ICTP, GEO, RIPIECSA) 4 ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 Attended by : Representatives of National Meteorological services throughout the African continent (~20) and ACMAD Representatives of major forecasting centres (ECMWF, NCEP, UK Met Office METEO-France, DWD) Research scientists (climate/meteorology, information system, hydrology, socio-economic) from Africa, Europe and North America, Representatives of relevant programmes (AMMA, GEO, EUMETNET/GEONetCAst, JWGFR, SERA, THORPEX WG, MEDEX, WIS, SDS-WAS, UCAR Africa Initiative, etc)

5. THORPEX-Africa 1st Workshop, 5-8 October 2009, ICTP, Trieste Objectives  To have a better picture of HIW in Africa, their impact and the warning process used. 5 ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011  To give a momentum to THORPEX-Africa planned activities regarding HIW Information system and predictability studies.  To identify tools and products available in/for African Met. Services for predicting HIW.

6. Pre-CAS-XV, Incheon, 17-18 November 2009 6 T T Tg s S s S s S Main High-impact Weather In Africa From NHMS presentations Dry spells Tropical cyclones Cyclogenesis Flooding and Landslides Strong winds Sand & Dust Episodes, Heat waves Frost 6 ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011

7. Tools for Predicting HIW /Assessing predictability Hetegeneous level across the continent: 1.Use of few NWP global models products through EUMETCAST distribution 2.Use of more NWP products using also Internet for dedicated Web page and/or through Retim distribution 3.Additional diagnostics with regional/local models, research- developemnt activities, e.g. SAWS, Morroco, Algeria, Kenya Senegal 4.Systematic verification and feedback: only in few centres or in a framework pf projects (e.g. SWFDP) 5.Use of ensemble prediction: very rare, few countries mostly in Southern Africa with the SWFDP ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 7

8. Why A High-Impact Weather Predictability and Information System ? The limitation of well documented cases of high impact events and data exchange within African sub-regions: a severe impediment to progress in reducing the adverse effects related to HIW Need for a mechanism to collect and exchange high impact weather data  facilitate processes/predictability studies, socio-economic research applications, forecast improvement and mitigation of detrimental effects of HIW.. Requirement to establish a database of key high-impact African weather events, consisting of observations, model outputs, event- documentation and associated predictability studies analyses, (evaluation, modelling) 8 ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011

9. Approach for implementation 9 While seeking for funding start the work in parallel with a few selected case studies (on a sub-regional basis; north, west, central, east, southern Africa) with  data collection (both weather and impact data) to feed an interim information system  model assessment to predict high-impact weather on the other hand will be performed ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011

10. 10 2009 2008 1997 2007? 2008 2009? Representatives of Met Services proposed to work at sub-regional basis focussing first on flooding events but also dust events & aerosols, dry spells, heat waves, marine hazards 10 ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 Coordi. West Coordi. East& Centre Coord. South African RC Coordi. North Focal P. NMHS1 Focal P. NMHS2 Focal P. NMHSn Case studies at regional level

11. 11 3 -year demonstration project with 3 phases Phase 1 High impact weather Event Description and Database Design Phase 2 Forecast skill Assessement Phase 3 Modelling activities ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011

12. OUAGADOUGOU From Guillaume Nacoulma, Lamin Touray, 12 ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 September 2009 flooding in the Sahel DAKAR ROSSO

13. 13 01 September 2009 0600 Flash Flood in Burkina Faso, September 1st 2009 ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 13 261mm in 10 hours. 2/3 of the annual mean

14. Flooding in Senegal ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 14 02 September 2009 2100 2 weeks of wet spell

15. ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 15 B CA D

16. ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 16 BC A D Hovmuller time-longitude Rel. Vorticity [9-15N]

17. ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 17 SST Anomalies Third August decad (2009 vs Climatology) Pattern of enhancement of monsoon circulation at subseasonal timescale

18. 2009 Anomalously Wet in Western WAM Region ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 18 AMO Sutton and Hodson 2005 Link to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation?

19. East Africa Case (Heavy rainfall in October 1997) 19 ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 October 1997 rainfall for Ethiopia, Tanzania, Kenya 2 to 10 times the October mean! From Babu (Ethiopia), Changa’a (Tanzania), Mwangi (kenya) and Morel (La Réunion)

20. ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 20 Seasonal context of the East African Event Bessafi (La Reunion)

21. ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 21 Rainfall HIW event in the context of 1997 EL Nino event and anomalies in the Indian Ocean Climate indexes Rainfall

22. ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 22 two jets associated with strong positive PV anomalies. dynamical forcing over north tropical area Vertical cross section zonal wind and PV anomalies

23. November 2008 flooding in South Africa ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 23 Heavy rainfall events in some parts of South Africa on the 11 and 12th November.  death of 27 people in Western Cape province.  Most provinces in the interior of South Africa experienced convective rainfall with many lightning strokes recorded. The main weather events that caused this were cut off low, troughs, fronts and surface lows (Ngwana, South Africa)

24. ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 24 Flooding in November 2008 in South Algeria 190mm at Aïn Sefra, leading to flooding of the of the rivers El Beridj et Mouileh causing crossing the town of Aïn Sefra 2 deaths, displaced people, closed roads, etc Benrekta, Algeria)

25. Status of case studies Progress has been slow in 2010-2011 Phase 1: i)synoptic analysis, ii)extremeness analysis, iii)conceptual model still not completed Problems of resources: human for animation; funding for networking, training Structural problems: poor operational environment, lack of skill, limited human resources, poor interaction with universities Low involvement and commitment at higher level in NHMSs TO FOLLOW-UP  Invite THORPEX working groups, PDP, TIGGE to be involved in African THORPEX case studies.  Need of minimum of resources to enable people interacting while seeking in parallel for more resources ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 25

26. Status of the interim database One Terabyte (1 TB) of disk space allocated by ICTP but there is the need to design the database and frame the associated metadata. ICTP can help build the database that can be transferred to another African centre. This will require a person dedicated for this purpose who can go and work at ICTP as a visitor for a specified period of time. To Follow-up and given minimum of resources Inviting SERA to be involved in the database design ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 26

27. Way forward: Implementation activities  Linking THORPEX-Africa research to operations Design a template on (HIW) events and encourage and promote reporting of HIW close to near real-time and near real-time model verification if access to more products from global centres is enabled. Feedback to be provided. Customized TIGGE products for validation & application in Africa ? Working with the TIGGE WG and the SWFDPs in Southern Africa and with RSMCs in other regions?  Continue to seek for funding  Training on NWP and ensembles forecasting and TIGGE dataset. ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 27

28. Membership In the terms of reference of the regional committee, it was stated that, after 4 years (then December 2011), half of the members should step down and replaced by new members. The membership should be kept at ten or below. ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 28

29. Current Membership 1. Ernest Afiesimama, Meteorological Agency, Nigeria, (JSC) 2. Amare Babu, National Meteorological Service, Ethiopia 3. Kwabena Asomanin Anaman, Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration (GIMPA) Accra, Ghana, (SERA) 4. Arona Diedhiou, Institute for Research and Development (IRD), France 5. Aida Diongue-Niang, Meteorological Agency, Senegal, co-chair 6. Andre Kamga Foamouhoue, African Centre of Meteorological Applications and Development (ACMAD), Niger 7.Joseph Katongo KANYANGA, Zambia Meteorological Department 8. Benjamin Lamptey, Regional Maritime University, Accra, Ghana, co-chair 9. Abdellah Mokssit, Meterological Office, Morocco 10. Zilore Mumba, African Centre of Meteorological Applications and Development (ACMAD), Niger to be replaced by his scuccessor at ACMAD 11. Isaac Ngwana, South African Weather Service 12.Franklin Opijah, University of Nairobi, Kenya ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 29

30. Meeting in Early 2012? Last formal regional committee meeting: July 2008 A Regional Committee (RC) meeting conjointly with small workshop involving some RC members and others resource persons in January/February 2012. The RC meeting to present the status of THORPEX and way forward to members particularly the newly appointed ones and discuss the specific work assigned to each member of the RC. Small workshop to develop templates to be submitted to NHMSs indicating HIW for further study, to discuss and advance case studies, to develop programs to derive products (TIGGE, Deterministic global models). ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 30