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Aetna (NYSE: AET) Jonathan Goh Apr 22, 2008
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Company Overview Diversified Healthcare Benefits Traditional and consumer- directed health insurance Medical Pharmacy Dental Behavioral Health Customers Employers Individual Groups College Students Part-time/Hourly Workers Government Units Labor Groups Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)
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Business Segments Healthcare Small, mid-size, large multi- site national employers Point of Service (POS) Preferred Provider Organizations (PPO) Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) Indemnity plans Group Insurance Life Disability Long-term Care Large Case Pensions Retirement Products Annuity Products Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)
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Revenue Streams Primarily from premiums earned on insured products Assume majority of financial risk Employer Groups / Employees self-select Government Units – MedicAid & MedicCare Fees – administrative services contracts (ASC) Investments Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)
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Revenue Streams Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)
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Investment Portfolio As of December 31, 2007 Debt and Equity - $15 billion Average A+ Rating Mortgage Loans - $1.5 billion Mostly Agency Backed AAA loans Short Term Investments - $1.3 billion No material losses from sub-prime Does not hold any CDOs, CLOs and SIVs Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)
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2007 in Review Strong growth in Healthcare medical membership 1.4m in 2007 (including acquisitions) 0.7m in 2006 Acquisitions - $613 million Share repurchase 2007 – 33 million shares for $1.6 billion 2006 – 60 million shares for $2.3 billion Debt Issuance 2007 - $700 million of senior notes 2006 - $2 billion of senior notes Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)
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Outlook for 2008 Strong healthcare membership growth Retirement market Reducing lower margin and maturing market Level Group Insurance sales Run-off of Large Case Pensions Capital Redeployment Continue to seek acquisitions Share repurchase $1.5 billion 5 year revolving credit facility with 21 banks; JPMorgan as administrative agent Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)
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Shareholders Over 50% institutional shareholders Legg Mason – 7% State Street Corp – 6% Capital Research Global Investment Good ownership base No incumbent shareholder Source: Bloomberg, accessed on Apr 21, 2008
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Industry Trends Strong decline in commercial employer-based health plans More directed to Consumer Consumer-Directed Health Fund (Aetna) Online management of choices Constrained Public Care MedicCare MedicAid
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Strengths and Competitive Advantage New markets and products drive top-level growth Manages financial risks better than peers Organic Growth Online medical management system - CareEngine Greater Flexibility and Choice in design features Larger physician networks Acquisitions Schaller Anderson – Entry into the MedicAid market GoodHealth Worldwide Limited – Expand HealthCare Product Offerings Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)
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Weaknesses and Risks Declining employer-based insurance membership Higher Deductibles and Lower-margins Federal and state legislative and regulatory reforms Advances in pharmaceutical and medical technology Cost and effectiveness Industry consolidation and increased competitiveness Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)
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Industry Analysis Mid-March 2008 WellPoint (NYSE: WLP) Cut full year earnings by about $0.50 per share Tumbled more than 28% Attributed to rising health care costs & investment losses Flu epidemic 2 Top executives leave Both WellPoint and UNH experienced declines in membership enrolment Aetna only insurer that did not lose membership Source:Britt, R. et. al., “Health insurers take a dive on WellPoint's warning”, MarketWatch, Mar 11, 2008
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Industry Analysis Source: Yahoo Finance, AET Charts
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Valuation Source: Historical Financial Data from Form 10-K, Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)
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Valuation Source: Historical Financial Data from Form 10-K, Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008) Selected data from Bloomberg, Accessed on Apr 21, 2008
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Sensitivity Analysis
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Market Comps and Peer Valuations Aetna, IncS&P500 Current P/E (ttm)12.13Current P/E (ttm)17.67 Forward P/E (1yr)9.28Forward P/E (1/yr)14.86 Current EPS (ttm)3.47Peer Group Last Close$42.14Current P/E (ttm)15.96 Implied Earnings$4.54Discount to Peer24% Earnings Growth31% 52 Week Range39.02-60.00 Historical P/E (5 yrs)15.21 Discount20% Dividend Yield0.10% Source: Market data from Bloomberg, Accessed on Apr 21, 2008
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Investment Thesis Deeply undervalued because of industry implosion Intrinsic Value of $52 - $64 Return on Equity – 15-20% Well positioned amongst competitors Optimistic consumer targeted member growth Employee Retirement/MedicAid/MedicCare Higher accreditation Fortune’s Most Admired Healthcare (2008) Lower risk investment assets
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Note for Future Analysts Reported $0.92 EPS for 2008Q1 Earnings Inline with estimates and projections Up 14% from prior year - $0.82 Lowered second quarter target Raised enrollment targets for 2008 Analyze future outlook of healthcare insurance industry Aetna’s position amongst competitors Ability to gain enrolment in the consumer-targeted market and maintain sustainable competitive advantage Ability to manage financial risk and healthcare costs
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Questions?
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Appendices and Supporting Material
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Definition of Terms Medicare Health insurance programs for people aged 65 or older people under 65 but with disabilities people of all ages with End-Stage Renal Disease Medicaid Low income individuals and families who cannot afford medical care Pays the hospital bills directly State administered program Source: US Department of Health and Services
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Summary of Expansions Expanding our individual and small group marketing into additional states Expanding our capabilities to serve Government and labor customers Expanding our Medicaid offerings to a total of 10 states, mostly through acquisition Expanding our capabilities to serve retirees, particularly through our relationships with AARP and the HR Policy Association and our enhanced individual and group Medicare offerings; and Expanding our expatriate offerings and global capabilities and reach, also through acquisition. Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)
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Snapshot of Total Membership Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)
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Group Insurance Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)
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Medical Benefit Ratio Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)
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Investment Securities Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)
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Market Share Source: OneSource Business Browser; AET Analyst Report, Mar 20, 2008, Oppenheimer & Co, Inc
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