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Aetna (NYSE: AET) Jonathan Goh Apr 22, 2008. Company Overview  Diversified Healthcare Benefits  Traditional and consumer- directed health insurance.

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Presentation on theme: "Aetna (NYSE: AET) Jonathan Goh Apr 22, 2008. Company Overview  Diversified Healthcare Benefits  Traditional and consumer- directed health insurance."— Presentation transcript:

1 Aetna (NYSE: AET) Jonathan Goh Apr 22, 2008

2 Company Overview  Diversified Healthcare Benefits  Traditional and consumer- directed health insurance Medical Pharmacy Dental Behavioral Health  Customers Employers Individual Groups College Students Part-time/Hourly Workers Government Units Labor Groups Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)

3 Business Segments  Healthcare  Small, mid-size, large multi- site national employers  Point of Service (POS)  Preferred Provider Organizations (PPO)  Health Maintenance Organization (HMO)  Indemnity plans  Group Insurance  Life  Disability  Long-term Care  Large Case Pensions  Retirement Products  Annuity Products Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)

4 Revenue Streams  Primarily from premiums earned on insured products  Assume majority of financial risk  Employer Groups / Employees self-select  Government Units – MedicAid & MedicCare  Fees – administrative services contracts (ASC)  Investments Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)

5 Revenue Streams Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)

6 Investment Portfolio  As of December 31, 2007  Debt and Equity - $15 billion Average A+ Rating  Mortgage Loans - $1.5 billion Mostly Agency Backed AAA loans  Short Term Investments - $1.3 billion  No material losses from sub-prime  Does not hold any CDOs, CLOs and SIVs Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)

7 2007 in Review  Strong growth in Healthcare medical membership  1.4m in 2007 (including acquisitions)  0.7m in 2006  Acquisitions - $613 million  Share repurchase  2007 – 33 million shares for $1.6 billion  2006 – 60 million shares for $2.3 billion  Debt Issuance  2007 - $700 million of senior notes  2006 - $2 billion of senior notes Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)

8 Outlook for 2008  Strong healthcare membership growth  Retirement market  Reducing lower margin and maturing market  Level Group Insurance sales  Run-off of Large Case Pensions  Capital Redeployment  Continue to seek acquisitions  Share repurchase  $1.5 billion 5 year revolving credit facility with 21 banks; JPMorgan as administrative agent Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)

9 Shareholders  Over 50% institutional shareholders  Legg Mason – 7%  State Street Corp – 6%  Capital Research Global Investment  Good ownership base  No incumbent shareholder Source: Bloomberg, accessed on Apr 21, 2008

10 Industry Trends  Strong decline in commercial employer-based health plans  More directed to Consumer  Consumer-Directed Health Fund (Aetna)  Online management of choices  Constrained Public Care  MedicCare  MedicAid

11 Strengths and Competitive Advantage  New markets and products drive top-level growth  Manages financial risks better than peers  Organic Growth  Online medical management system - CareEngine  Greater Flexibility and Choice in design features  Larger physician networks  Acquisitions  Schaller Anderson – Entry into the MedicAid market  GoodHealth Worldwide Limited – Expand HealthCare Product Offerings Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)

12 Weaknesses and Risks  Declining employer-based insurance membership  Higher Deductibles and Lower-margins  Federal and state legislative and regulatory reforms  Advances in pharmaceutical and medical technology  Cost and effectiveness  Industry consolidation and increased competitiveness Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)

13 Industry Analysis  Mid-March 2008  WellPoint (NYSE: WLP) Cut full year earnings by about $0.50 per share Tumbled more than 28% Attributed to rising health care costs & investment losses Flu epidemic 2 Top executives leave  Both WellPoint and UNH experienced declines in membership enrolment  Aetna only insurer that did not lose membership Source:Britt, R. et. al., “Health insurers take a dive on WellPoint's warning”, MarketWatch, Mar 11, 2008

14 Industry Analysis Source: Yahoo Finance, AET Charts

15 Valuation Source: Historical Financial Data from Form 10-K, Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)

16 Valuation Source: Historical Financial Data from Form 10-K, Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008) Selected data from Bloomberg, Accessed on Apr 21, 2008

17 Sensitivity Analysis

18 Market Comps and Peer Valuations Aetna, IncS&P500 Current P/E (ttm)12.13Current P/E (ttm)17.67 Forward P/E (1yr)9.28Forward P/E (1/yr)14.86 Current EPS (ttm)3.47Peer Group Last Close$42.14Current P/E (ttm)15.96 Implied Earnings$4.54Discount to Peer24% Earnings Growth31% 52 Week Range39.02-60.00 Historical P/E (5 yrs)15.21 Discount20% Dividend Yield0.10% Source: Market data from Bloomberg, Accessed on Apr 21, 2008

19 Investment Thesis  Deeply undervalued because of industry implosion  Intrinsic Value of $52 - $64  Return on Equity – 15-20%  Well positioned amongst competitors  Optimistic consumer targeted member growth Employee Retirement/MedicAid/MedicCare  Higher accreditation Fortune’s Most Admired Healthcare (2008)  Lower risk investment assets

20 Note for Future Analysts  Reported $0.92 EPS for 2008Q1 Earnings  Inline with estimates and projections  Up 14% from prior year - $0.82  Lowered second quarter target  Raised enrollment targets for 2008  Analyze future outlook of healthcare insurance industry  Aetna’s position amongst competitors  Ability to gain enrolment in the consumer-targeted market and maintain sustainable competitive advantage  Ability to manage financial risk and healthcare costs

21 Questions?

22 Appendices and Supporting Material

23 Definition of Terms  Medicare  Health insurance programs for people aged 65 or older people under 65 but with disabilities people of all ages with End-Stage Renal Disease  Medicaid  Low income individuals and families who cannot afford medical care Pays the hospital bills directly State administered program Source: US Department of Health and Services

24 Summary of Expansions  Expanding our individual and small group marketing into additional states  Expanding our capabilities to serve Government and labor customers  Expanding our Medicaid offerings to a total of 10 states, mostly through acquisition  Expanding our capabilities to serve retirees, particularly through our relationships with AARP and the HR Policy Association and our enhanced individual and group Medicare offerings; and  Expanding our expatriate offerings and global capabilities and reach, also through acquisition. Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)

25 Snapshot of Total Membership Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)

26 Group Insurance Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)

27 Medical Benefit Ratio Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)

28 Investment Securities Source: Form 10-K Aetna, Inc (Feb 9, 2008)

29 Market Share Source: OneSource Business Browser; AET Analyst Report, Mar 20, 2008, Oppenheimer & Co, Inc


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