1. INFORMATION SERVICES AZ-SMART Arizona’s Socioeconomic Modeling, Analysis and Reporting Tool Box UrbanSim/OPUS COG/MPO Users Group April 30, 2009 Hanyi Li Jesse Ayers Anubhav Bagley

2. INFORMATION SERVICESSocioeconomic Modeling Copyright © 2009 MAG & Maricopa County Members: Members: 25 cities and Towns 25 cities and Towns 3 Indian Communities 3 Indian Communities Maricopa County Maricopa County ADOT and CTOC ADOT and CTOC Vital Statistics (2008): Vital Statistics (2008): Population: 3.9 million Population: 3.9 million Phoenix 1.5 million Phoenix 1.5 million Jobs: 1.9 million Jobs: 1.9 million Area: 9,200 sq. mi Area: 9,200 sq. mi

3. INFORMATION SERVICESSocioeconomic Modeling Copyright © 2009 AZ-SMART Arizona’s Socioeconomic Modeling, Analysis & Reporting Tool Box Phase I Phase I Contract with UW: Dec. 2006 to July 2008 Current stable version of OPUS includes all features developed under AZ-SMART contract Key additions: Addition of the GUI – use of XML configuration files Windows Installer New Real Estate Development model Sub-Regional Control totals: At any geography (County, sub-region, TAZ) Multi level control – feedback from lower to higher Two new generic model types: Allocation model and “Simple model” ArcGIS storage (usable for small datasets)

4. INFORMATION SERVICESSocioeconomic Modeling Copyright © 2009 July 2008 - present OPUS implemented using: OPUS implemented using: v1 polygon based data (pseudo-parcels) v1 polygon based data (pseudo-parcels) Land use types matching with SAM-IM: Land use types matching with SAM-IM: Residential: Single family, Multi family Residential: Single family, Multi family Employment: Retail, Office, Industrial, Other Employment: Retail, Office, Industrial, Other v1 simple model estimations: no HLCM or ELCM submodels v1 simple model estimations: no HLCM or ELCM submodels Starting from simple – working towards end-state models: Starting from simple – working towards end-state models: Simplistic development constraints Simplistic development constraints Small number of known development projects and templates Small number of known development projects and templates Control at County and sub-regions Control at County and sub-regions OPUS ver. 4.2.2 ++ OPUS ver. 4.2.2 ++ Identified and fixed bugs Identified and fixed bugs Constant interaction with CUSPA Constant interaction with CUSPA

5. INFORMATION SERVICESSocioeconomic Modeling Copyright © 2009 July 2008 - present Documentation Documentation Internal workings of models – developer model Internal workings of models – developer model Estimation techniques Estimation techniques Lessons and needs Lessons and needs Beginnings of internal user and technical documentation Beginnings of internal user and technical documentation AZ-SMART Data Model AZ-SMART Data Model Household and Population Synthesizer Household and Population Synthesizer Testing version from ASU Testing version from ASU AZ-SMART system architecture AZ-SMART system architecture Completed the modeling team - finally Completed the modeling team - finally Hanyi Li Hanyi Li Jesse Ayers Jesse Ayers

6. INFORMATION SERVICESSocioeconomic Modeling Copyright © 2009 Next steps Finish testing with v1 dataset, move on to v2: Finish testing with v1 dataset, move on to v2: v2 Data creation v2 Data creation Settle on v2 parcels – large parcels pre-split Settle on v2 parcels – large parcels pre-split More realistic development_constraints dataset – applied to parcels from our General Plan More realistic development_constraints dataset – applied to parcels from our General Plan Adding all known development projects – aligned with parcels Adding all known development projects – aligned with parcels Develop enhanced building dataset linked to enhanced HH and jobs datasets from internal sources Develop enhanced building dataset linked to enhanced HH and jobs datasets from internal sources Estimation Estimation REPM – submodels stratified by more detailed land-use types REPM – submodels stratified by more detailed land-use types HLCM – submodels stratified by household type HLCM – submodels stratified by household type ELCM – submodels stratified by NAICS sectors ELCM – submodels stratified by NAICS sectors Models Models Sub-regional control with spill over to higher geography Sub-regional control with spill over to higher geography Test development of zonal models Test development of zonal models Develop other allocation models as needed Develop other allocation models as needed

7. INFORMATION SERVICESSocioeconomic Modeling Copyright © 2009 Lessons being learnt Data Consistency – all spatial datasets need to match boundaries with the base parcel dataset Reconfigure the way plans and development projects are maintained internally Table and field names must exactly match what OPUS is expecting or the simulation will fail with a Python traceback Estimation Multi-Linear Regression Numpy Array - Negative R 2 and Singularity Discrete Choice Model Dataset for Estimation Vacant VS. Non-Vacant for Sampling Weights BHHH MNL Estimation VS. BHHH WESML Estimation Observed and Sampled Shares

8. INFORMATION SERVICESSocioeconomic Modeling Copyright © 2009 Lessons being learnt (contd.) Models Development Velocity had bugs – fixed Large parcel issues: once development proposal starts, the system will build it out completely regardless of demand Sub-regional control – HTM issues (draws from sub- region, problems w/ low or 0 HH in base year) Filter for Home-Based Employment Location Choice Model Table for Build out Indicators Tool Current difficulty with HLCM leaving many unplaced HHs w/ many vacant units Knowledge of Python and DBMS was essential to get model running for first time on MAG data Not everything is documented - adding Jesse to the team helped immensely

9. INFORMATION SERVICESSocioeconomic Modeling Copyright © 2009 Needs More control over what is written to the cache each simulation year: Many tables and fields are written over and over in a simulation, perhaps write only changed tables\fields? Many interim steps and results are discarded during a simulation (expected ROI, units proposed, etc.), writing these to the cache would be useful for analyzing model behavior and debugging Some form of “cache validation,” a way to tell if all required tables and fields are present before starting a run Some items that still need to be exposed in the GUI: Some inherited scenario configuration information is not exposed in XML yet, all parcel based projects inherit a lot of configuration information from: urbansim_parcel.configs.controller_config.py

10. INFORMATION SERVICESSocioeconomic Modeling Copyright © 2009 Needs More targeted reports/diagnostics from individual models: Many things (warnings, errors, diagnostic info, etc.) are printed to the log, but are difficult to find after a simulation year is complete Demographic transition models (aging, HH formation, etc.) Method for aggregating/splitting parcels: Subdivision and aggregation of parcels is needed prior to application of development templates Need ability to work with parcel information within known development projects Business lifecycle and transition

11. INFORMATION SERVICESSocioeconomic Modeling Copyright © 2009 Questions Can models be controlled to population rather than HH? Can models be controlled to population rather than HH? Details on persons<>jobs link Details on persons<>jobs link Discrete Choice Model with Capacity Constraints