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Recreational Values of Gulf Grouper John Whitehead, Appalachian State University Gulf of Mexico Fishery Management Council Socioeconomic Panel Miami, Florida Thursday May 3, 2007
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“Outline” An overview of the MARFIN project Decisions made to date about MRFSS data Progress report / future effort Preliminary results from the Gulf of Mexico reef fish model
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Angler Heterogeneity and Species-Specific Demand for Recreational Fishing in the Southeast United States* Tim Haab (Ohio State University) Rob Hicks (College of William and Mary) Kurt Schnier (University of Rhode Island) John Whitehead (Appalachian State University) *MARFIN #NA06NMF4330055
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Previous NMFS/MRFSS Recreational Valuation Research McConnell and Strand, 1994 Hicks, Steinbeck, Gautam, Thunberg, 1999 Haab, Whitehead, and Ted McConnell, 2000 Haab, Hicks, Whitehead, 2004
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Targeting behavior Compare various angler targeting models single-species aggregates of related species all species combined We are considering:
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Species substitution Estimate angler willingness to substitute to other species or species groups when fishing quality or fishing management changes
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We will: Estimate how willingness to substitute species might differ by angler type socioeconomic factors preferences gear type (i.e., mode)
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We will: Provide species- specific estimates of economic value for: changes in fishing quality management (e.g., size limits, bag limits)
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To date: We have identified the feasibility of demand modeling at the species level Estimated two preliminary demand models
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MRFSS 2000 LA to NC n = 70,781 Southeast 2000 (Limited Valuation Round) n = 42,079 Hook and line trips only (99%), day trips only (67%) [self-reported and < 200 miles one-way distance], delete missing values on key variables n = 18,709 +/- Targets a species n=11,257 +/-
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Fishing mode
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State of intercept
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Species 425 unique species caught by recreational anglers sampled by the MRFSS 15 species account for 82% of the targeting activity and 38% of the (type 1) catch
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Target Behavior (Prim1) sign Intercept+p <.01 Years fished+p <.01 Boat owner+p <.01 Shore mode-p <.01 Charter mode-p <.01 Days fished+p <.01 Wave 4- Wave 5+p <.01 Wave 6+p <.01 Gulf-p <.01
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Traditional species groups Big game4% Bottom fish4% Flat fish5% Small game11% Snapper - grouper15%
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Top target species of interest from RFP Red drum20% Dolphin6% King mackerel6% Spanish mackerel4%
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Four demand models are being pursued Florida Atlantic Big Game Dolphin Big game fish Gulf of Mexico Reef Fish “Snappers” Shallow water groupers Red snapper
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Four demand models … Inshore small game: Red drum, spotted seatrout, small game Offshore small game: King mackerel, spanish mackerel, small game
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GOM Reef Fish Intercept Sites (n = 1224)
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Target Species
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“Snappers” (n = 160) gray snapper48.13% sheepshead23.75% white grunt11.88% black sea bass3.75% crevalle jack3.75% amberjack genus1.88% gray triggerfish1.88% snapper family1.25% yellowtail snapper1.25% atlantic spadefish0.63% blackfin snapper0.63% blue runner0.63% vermilion snapper0.63%
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Shallow water groupers (n = 725) unidentified grouper73.38% gag17.38% red grouper6.07% grouper genus Mycteroperca2.9% black grouper0.28% Red snapper (n = 239)
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Mode
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Random Utility Models Conditional Logit Nested Logit Mixed Logit Latent Class Model
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Conditional Logit Party/charter boat county sites Private/rental boat county sites
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Nested Logit Party/charter Private/rental Counties
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Variables 71 Species/Mode/Site choices Travel cost [party/charter] TC = charter fee + driving costs + time costs [private/rental] TC = driving costs + time costs Quality 5-year historic (type 1) targeted catch rate Predicted type 1 catch rate Number of MRFSS interview sites in the county
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Conditional Logit Coefft-stat tcfee-0.038-30.58 snapper0.0777.41 grouper1.17829.71 redsnapper0.62822.87 Log(sites)0.76714.16
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Mixed Logit Coefft-stat tcfee_M-0.070-28.04 tcfee_S0.0347.79 snapper0.0463.5 grouper1.1920.88 redsnapper0.7724.35 lognsite0.6611.93
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Value of one additional fish per trip ConditionalMixed Snapper$2$1 Grouper$31$17 Red snapper$17$11
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Recreational value of an allocation change $ = V x x H Value per fish = V Change in harvest = Current harvest = H
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Gag STATE MODE HH Value ALABAMA CHARTER997$16,944 ALABAMA PRIVATE/RENTAL1,193$20,276 WEST FLORIDA CHARTER10,503$178,551 WEST FLORIDA PRIVATE/RENTAL29,971$509,512 LOUISIANA CHARTER304$5,161 LOUISIANA PRIVATE/RENTAL381$6,475
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Red Grouper STATE MODE HH Value ALABAMA CHARTER447$7,602 ALABAMA PRIVATE/RENTAL104$1,765 WEST FLORIDA CHARTER7,659$130,203 WEST FLORIDA PRIVATE/RENTAL12,012$204,199
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Contact John Whitehead Department of Economics Appalachian State University Boone, NC 28608 whiteheadjc@appstate.edu http://www.appstate.edu/~whiteheadjc
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