1. IPCC Synthesis Report Part II - Habiba Gitay
Climate change: observed and projected–changes in the mean state, variability and extreme events
Observed and projected impacts of climate change on ecological systems, socio-economic sectors (including human health), and approaches to adapt to climate change

2. Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere since the pre- industrial era

3. Humans are perturbing the carbon cycle
Atmosphere
The KP seeks to reduce
total emissions by about 0.2
This is the
“greenhouse” problem
3.3
750
62.3
Estimated Fossil Deposits
6.3
About 16,000
Humans are perturbing the carbon cycle 60
1.6
Plants
Driven by
fossil fuel emissions
500
Soil
92.3 90
2000
…and land clearing
Oceans
39,000
Units Gt C for stores & Gt C y-1 for fluxes
The oceans and land vegetation are currently
taking up 4.6 Gt C per year

4. The Land and Oceans have warmed

5. Precipitation patterns have changed

6. The frequency, persistence and magnitude of El-Nino events have increased in the last 20 years
El Niño years
La Niña years
The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and droughts throughout the tropics and subtropics

7. Sea Levels have risen

8. Observed regional changes in temperature have been associated with observed changes in physical and biological systems
Examples include:
non-polar glacier retreat
reduction in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness in summer
earlier flowering and longer growing and breeding season for plants and animals in the N.H.
poleward and upward (altitudinal) migration of plants, birds, fish and insects; earlier spring migration and later departure of birds in the N.H.
increased incidence of coral bleaching

9. Weather-related economic damages have increased

10. Global mean surface temperatures have increased

11. Most of the observed warming in the past 50 years is attributable to human activities

12. Greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations, temperature and sea level are projected to change

13. Global mean surface temperature is projected to increase during the 21st century

14. Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes
Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in = 3.1oC

15. Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990
Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drier with an overall increase projected
Annual mean precipitation change: to 2100 Relative to 1990

16. Mean sea level is projected to rise by 0. 09 to 0
Mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88m by 2100, but with significant regional variations

17. Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase
Projected changes during the 21st century
Examples of impacts
Higher maximum temperatures; more hot days and heatwaves over nearly all land areas (very likely)
Higher minimum temperatures; fewer cold days frost days and cold spells over nearly all land areas (very likely)
more intense precipitation events over many areas (very likely)
increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors and associated risk of drought (likely)
increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensity, mean and peak precipitation intensities (likely)
Increased mortality in old people in urban areas
Damage to crops
Heat stress on livestock
Extended range of pests and diseases
Loss of some crop/fruit
Land slides, mudslides, damage to property and increased insurance costs
Reduced rangeland productivity, increased wildfires, decreased hydropower
Damage to various ecological and socioeconomic systems
Point the regions where the warming will be greatest

18. More adverse than beneficial impacts on biological and socioeconomic systems are projected

19. Increased water availability in some water-scarce regions, and decreased water availability in many water scarce regions

20. Initially increased agricultural productivity in some mid-latitude regions & reduction in the tropics and sub-tropics even with warming of a few degrees
2020s
2050s
2080s

21. Significant disruptions of ecosystems from disturbances such as fire, drought, pest infestation and invasion of species Changes in the productivity and composition of ecological systems, with coral reefs and boreal forests being most vulnerable

22. coral bleaching events are expected to increase
Branching coral
Brain coral
coral bleaching events are expected to increase

23. Ecological systems have many interacting non-linear processes and are thus subject to abrupt changes and threshold effects arising from relatively small changes in driving variables, such as climate. For example: Temperature increase beyond a threshold, which varies by crop and variety, can affect key development stages of some crops and result in severe losses in crop yields.

24. Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions of people, due to sea level rise and heavy rainfall events, especially in Small Island States and low-lying deltaic areas. Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with a sea level rise of one meter - very difficult to adapt due to lack of adaptive capacity
projected
present

25. Effect on human health… Reduced winter mortality in mid- and high-latitudes Increased incidence of heat stress mortality, and the number of people exposed to vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue and water-borne diseases such as cholera, especially in the tropics and sub-tropics

26. Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change
Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought prone and a large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors
Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity and access to knowledge
Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries, exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources.
Net market sector effects are expected to be negative in most developing countries

27. Adaptation has the potential to reduce adverse effects of climate change and can often produce immediate ancillary benefits, but cannot prevent all damages
Numerous adaptation options have been identified that can reduce adverse and enhance beneficial impacts of climate change, but will incur costs
Greater and more rapid climate change would pose greater challenges for adaptation