1. Turkish Economy’s Dynamics of Entry to and Exit from the Crisis Prof. Seyfettin Gürsel Bahcesehir University Center for Economic and Social Research (betam) Director Prepared for Professional Managers Meeting on 18th January 2010, Istanbul.

2. 2 Outline of the Presentation I.What do demand dynamics tell about entry to and exit from the crisis ? II.How did the crisis affect the Turkish Labor Market?

3. What do demand dynamics tell about entry to and exit from the crisis? PART I

4. 4 Private Investment & Private Consumption - GDP Nexus Source : Turkstat, betam

5. 5 Aggregate Government Expenditure - GDP Nexus Source : Turkstat, betam

6. 6 Export & Import - GDP Nexus Source : Turkstat, betam

7. 7 Investment Expectations - Private Investment Nexus Source : Turkstat, betam

8. 8 Consumer Confidence Index - Private Consumption Nexus Source : Turkstat, betam

9. 9 Consumer Confidence Index (t+1) - Private Consumption Nexus Source : Turkstat, betam

10. The Effects of the Crisis on the Turkish Labor Market. PART II I.Effects on Unemployment II.Effects on Labor Force III.Effects on Employment

11. 11 The Effects of the Crisis on Labor Market Effect on Labor Force (+) Effect on Employment (-) Boom in unemployment

12. 12 The effects on Unemployment Source : Turkstat, betam Figure 1: Non-agricultural unemployment and unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted)

13. 13 The effects on Labor Force Source : Turkstat, betam Figure 2: Non-agricultural Labor Force (year on year, % change)

14. 14 The effects on Employment Source : Turkstat, betam Figure 3: Non-agricultural employment (year on year, % change) Female employment increased Male employment decreased

15. 15 The effects on Employment Source : Turkstat, betam Figure 4: Wage earners and casual employees (non-agriculture, year on year change) Number of male regular/casual workers decreased initially and this is followed by decreases in female regular/casual employment.

16. 16 The effects on Employment Source : Turkstat, betam Figure 5: Employment of male workers (year on year change) Male employment in industry decreased substantially.

17. 17 The effects on Employment Source : Turkstat, betam Figure 6: Employment of female workers (year on year change) Female employment mainly increased in service sector.

18. 18 The effects on Employment Source : Turkstat, betam Figure 7: Self employed and unpaid family workers (non-agriculture, year on year change) Number of female own account and unpaid family workers increased dramatically.