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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Stock Recommendation Tracy Britt SWS Co-Founder smartwomansecurities © 2006 Smart Woman Securities. All materials are for.

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Presentation on theme: "Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Stock Recommendation Tracy Britt SWS Co-Founder smartwomansecurities © 2006 Smart Woman Securities. All materials are for."— Presentation transcript:

1 Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Stock Recommendation Tracy Britt SWS Co-Founder smartwomansecurities © 2006 Smart Woman Securities. All materials are for SWS members’ use only march 17, 2007

2 Chipotle (CMG)

3 The Story Started in 1993 Subsidiary of MCD IPO in January 2006 Food with integrity Transforming casual dining

4 The People CEO – Steve Ells Low turnover relative to industry

5 Rivalry: Qdoba, Other Casual Dining Barriers to Entry: Capital, Concept, Failure Substitutes: Very Easy to Substitute Supplier Power: Not Relevant Buyer Power: Becoming Stronger, Use of Organic Market, Expansion of All- Natural and Organic Porter’s Five Forces

6 IPO in January 2006 at $22 –Doubled in one day to $45 Currently trading at $41 52 week high/low: $49/$22 Short term expected target to remain in the $35-$45, but expect long term to rise to $55 Technical Analysis

7 Fundamental Analysis Company EPS Growth % P/E Cheesecake Factory Inc 20.0 24.8 Starbucks Corp 19.7 41.1 P.F. Chang's China Bistro Inc 18.9 27.7 Brinker International Inc 18.6 16.3 Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc 18.5 38.0 Wendy's International Inc 15.4 22.4 Outback Steakhouse Inc 11.7 19.3 Yum! Brands Inc 10.6 15.7 Darden Restaurants Inc 10.3 17.4 McDonald's Corp 9.6 14.4 $470.7 million of sales in 2004 and we sales rose more than 29%, to over $610 million, in 2005 No long term debt Current ratio of 3.8

8 Revenue Growth

9 Average Store Sales

10 Store Growth

11 Same Store Sales Growth

12 Investment Risks Transition from MCD Margin Issues Changing Trends Health Concerns Organic/Natural Products, i.e. Input Costs

13 Investment Opportunities Strength of Concept Market Readiness for “Food with Integrity” Growth of Casual Dining Demonstrated Growth of CMG Market Response to IPO Financial Metrics and Growth Going Forward

14 Investment Recommendation Despite the current valuation of the stock, we believe that CMG will excel in the coming years in response to the growing casual dining segment and an emphasis on natural eating. We rate the stock as a BUY at market price and recommend that Smart Woman Securities invest in the entity.

15 Q&A


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