1. Development of a Forest Vegetation Simulator variant and application software for Ontario Murray Woods, Sr Analyst, Forested Landscapes, OMNR Don Robinson, Sr Systems Ecologist, ESSA Technologies February 13-15, 2007

2. Outline  The Ontario Landbase  Role of FVS in Ontario’s Forest Management Decisions  Getting “here” from “nowhere”  Current Evolution of Model Forms  FVS Ontario – the UI for Ontario  Status and Next Steps

3. Ontario’s Landbase Hudson Bay Lowlands - sparse Boreal – jack pine / black spruce Grt. Lakes St. Lawrence – Red/White Pine Deciduous – Tolerant Hardwood

4. Ontario’s Ontario’s Landbase Productive Forest 56.8 million ha (140.3 million acres) Non-Forested Land 17.0 million ha (42 million acres) All Land and Water 107.6 million ha (265.9 million acres)

5. Forest Cover by Leading Species For the area of forest mangement

6. Regeneration of Annual harvested area and areas impacted from fire, wind, etc. Ontario’s Silvicultural Systems Based on 2003-2004 Annual Report

7. FVS Ontario’s role in Forest Management in Ontario 1. Represents our current understanding of the system and how it responds over time to management interventions 2. Reduces uncertainty in strategic model inputs 3. Provides a monitoring target to test our assumptions 4. Provides a modelling framework to integrate our existing modelling components 5. Provides a “Gaming” or “What if” tool to develop silvicultural treatments 6. Identifies gaps in our “G&Y toolbox” and data 7. Visually animates a stand through time 8. Provides Ontario with an appropriate tool to grow an enhanced inventory

8. FVS Ontario FVS Ontario Timeline 2000 2005 2004 2003 2001 2002 2006 2007 G&Y Program Model Review - Fibre, Twigs, Silvah, Prognosis G&Y Program Model Review - Fibre, Twigs, Silvah, Prognosis Corresponded with USDA, BC Min. of Forest and ESSA Technology staff Corresponded with USDA, BC Min. of Forest and ESSA Technology staff Completed validation of the LS variant for Ontario conditions Completed validation of the LS variant for Ontario conditions Initiated GUI modifications to model software for Ontario species, SI curves, taper equations, volume equations & silvicultural systems Initiated GUI modifications to model software for Ontario species, SI curves, taper equations, volume equations & silvicultural systems Initiated calibration efforts of Ontario Boreal and Great Lake specific growth and mortality equations Initiated calibration efforts of Ontario Boreal and Great Lake specific growth and mortality equations Completed validation of the new Ontario equations Completed validation of the new Ontario equations Development of data preparation software tool Development of data preparation software tool Compiled larger development and validation database Compiled larger development and validation database Expanded species specific model forms Expanded species specific model forms Ongoing software/model refinement Ongoing software/model refinement

9. Remeasurement for DBH Growth Equation Calibration Built on Ontario’s PSP Plot program, with ~5 yr remeasurement intervals Tree Remeasurement Observations

10. Large Tree Model Large Tree Diameter Model Diameter Growth Terms Individual: Diameter, Log(Diameter), Height, Tree Quality Class Stand: SI, BA, QMD, BAL DBH growth constrained to 0.95 of fitting observations

11. Large Tree Height Model Height Dubbing Terms Individual: Height, Diameter Stand: SI, BA, QMD Height growth by differencing

12. Small Tree Small Tree Models Height Growth Terms Individual: Height, Log(Height) Stand: SI, BAL Height growth constrained to 0.95 of fitting observations Diameter Terms Individual: Height Stand: SI, BA, QMD Re-arrangement of Large Tree Height Model, solved for diameter Diameter growth by differencing

13. UI written in Visual Basic 6 SimProg – assigns model keywords and manages model runs ViewProg – graphic display software SVS – Stand Visualization Software TLM – Tree List Manager Model Model Components

14. TLM – Tree List Manager - create & visualize inventory SimProg SimProg – - plant - thin - harvest - contingent (if-then) activities Database – - simulation results - Access format ViewProg – - tabular summaries - graphs (eg BA vs. age) - histograms (eg size distribution) Core model – - descendant of LS variant - stand-alone executable - text and database I/O Other text output - SVS - detailed results SVS – Stand Visualization System FVS Ontario – The Toolkit FVS Ontario – The Current Toolkit SimProg and ViewProg UI originally written for Prognosis BC

15. Ontario Assign Site Quality Assign Site Quality Information

16. Define Initial Conditions Define Initial Stand Conditions

17. Juvenile Spacing Juvenile Spacing Treatment

18. Treatments Thinning Treatments

19. Single Tree Selection

20. Uniform Shelterwood

21. Seed Tree Harvest

22. Custom Keyword Opportunities

23. FVS Ontario Output Options US Style Text Output Visualize Stand - SVS By Species and/or Dbh Class Stand Summaries

25. Development Status  Cautiously ready to roll-out model for further testing and evaluation by an expanded user’s group  Developing training package and workshop programs  Continuing to utilizing visualization products with public Planning Committees  Demonstrating the model’s abilities in silvicultural training sessions with Gov’t and Industry foresters  Developed a partnership with Michigan-Tech  Successive refinement of model formsas data and funding permit  Successive refinement of model forms as data and funding permit  Developing linkages between polygon inventory and tree lists for FVS (ITC, LiDAR, Statistical methods) Results of Diameter Limit Cutting Lidar Point Cloud

26. FVS Ontario – Thank You & Questions More information … Murray Woods Senior Analyst Forested Landscapes OMNR www.fvsontario.ca www.forestresearch.ca/partnership_projects/fibre_production/130-107.htm Published validation efforts of the LS Variant Testing the Lake States variant of FVS (Forest Vegetation Simulator) for the main forest types of northern Ontario. Lacerte, Valérie, Guy R. Larocque, Murray Woods, W. John Parton and Margaret Penner. 2004. Testing the Lake States variant of FVS (Forest Vegetation Simulator) for the main forest types of northern Ontario. Forestry Chronicle, 80(4). (July/August 2004) Published Calibration efforts Calibration of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) for the major forest species of Ontario Canada. Special Issue, Ecological Modelling Lacerte, Valérie, Guy R. Larocque, Murray Woods, W. John Parton and Margaret Penner. 2006. Calibration of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) for the major forest species of Ontario Canada. Special Issue, Ecological Modelling MNR Publication of Validation of Ontario derived equations Forest Vegetation Simulator Model Validation for Ontario (FVSOntario). Lacerte, Valérie, Guy R. Larocque, Murray Woods, W. John Parton and Margaret Penner. 2006. Forest Vegetation Simulator Model Validation for Ontario (FVSOntario). Southern Science and Information Section Technical Report #120. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, North Bay, Ontario. 398p. Manuscript prepared for publication Woods, Murray and Margaret PennerRevised FVSOntario model forms based on an expanded Ontario data set. Woods, Murray and Margaret Penner. 2007. Revised FVSOntario model forms based on an expanded Ontario data set. Donald Robinson Senior Systems Ecologist ESSA Technologies Ltd www.essa.com/downloads/prognosis Available Reports