1. Large Truck Crash Risk, Causation, & Prevention Ronald R. Knipling, Ph.D. Safety Consultant & Trainer Arlington, Virginia, USA rknipling@verizon.net www.safetyforthelonghaul.com IRU Academy FADEEAC International Conference Buenos Aires, Argentina -- April 5, 2011

2. Today’s Topics Crash risk –High-risk drivers –High-risk road conditions Proximal (immediate) crash causes The “Crash Trifecta” Driver & management training Vehicle-based safety technologies Active carrier safety management.

3. Multiple Interacting Factors & Causes

4. Crash Risk Factors Risk Factors: –Driver: Enduring Temporary –Vehicle –Roadway/Environment Proximal Causes: –Driver –Vehicle –Roadway/Environmental

5. Crash Risk Factors Driver Factors: Enduring driver traits; e.g., Age Personality (e.g., aggressive, impulsive) Risk perception & attitudes Medical conditions Temporary driver states; e.g., Prior sleep Circadian rhythms Moods Medications & drugs Other Factors: Vehicle deficiencies; e.g., Brakes Tires Lighting Roadway; e.g., Undivided roads Dense traffic Curves

6. Naturalistic Driving (Instrumented Vehicle) Study Near-Crash [Naturalistic Driving Video Clip]

7. Truck Naturalistic Driving Data on At-Fault Traffic Conflicts of 95 Drivers Skewed Distribution: Many good drivers but a few bad & very bad drivers

8. High- & Low-Risk CMV Drivers Risk Odds Ratio = 4.9

9. Safety Manager Survey Results: Driver Factors Associated with Risk 1.Aggressive/angry 2.Impatient/impulsive 3.Inattentive 4.Inexperienced (new driver) 5.Unhappy with job/company 6.Young (< 25) 7.Sleep disorder; e.g., sleep apnea 8.Unhappy marriage/family 9.Debt/financial problems 10.Medical condition; e.g., heart Personality & Risk Attitudes

10. Multiple Interacting Factors & Causes

11. Other high-risk roadway conditions include dense traffic & work zones 90% 62% 38% 10% ExposureTraffic Conflicts Undivided Odds ratio = 5.3

12. High-Risk Road Locations & Conditions Single-vehicle crashes: –Narrow roads –Curves –Ramps Multi-vehicle crashes: –Undivided roads –Heavy traffic –Work zones: ~13% of serious crashes <1% of driving exposure Risk increase > 20X

13. Large Truck Crash Causation Study (LTCCS) Percentages for Truck At-Fault Crashes CR CategoryExamples% Driver Physical Failure Asleep-at-the-wheel Heart attack Other physical impairment 12% Driver Recognition Failure Inattention Distraction (internal or external) “Looked but did not see” 30% Driver Decision Error Too fast for conditions Following too closely Misjudgment or false assumption 40% Driver Response Execution Error Overcompensation Poor vehicle control/maneuvering Panic/freezing 6% Vehicle Failure Brake failure Tire failure Cargo shift 10% Roadway/ Environment Road signs/signals missing Road design Weather and/or slick roads 2% DRIVER ERROR = 88%!!!

14. Convergence of Events Causing Crashes Adapted from Reason (1990) and Short et al. (2007).

15. Crash “Tri-Fecta” Frequently Seen in Crashes & Near-Crashes 1.Misbehavior: Unsafe pre-event behavior 2.Mistake: Transient driver inattention 3.Unexpected traffic event.

16. Crash Example [Naturalistic Driving Video Clip]

17. Collision Warning Systems Forward Collision Warning (with Adaptive Cruise Control) Side Object Detection (Lane Change/Merge Warnings) Lane Departure Warning Backing Collision Warning (Rear-Object Detection) 17 Courtesy Iteris, Inc.

18. IVBSS Collision Warning Systems; e.g., Side Object, Forward, & Lane Departure Integrated Vehicle-Based Safety System (IVBSS) Truck Configuration

19. Large Truck Safety Technologies: Estimated Returns On Investments (ROIs) * Vehicle-Based Crash Avoidance System Estimated 5-Year ROI per $1.00 Forward Collision Warning $4.28 Lane Departure Warning $3.96 Roll Stability Control $5.51 19 * FMCSA Benefit-Cost Analysis of Onboard Safety Systems. Tech Brief No. FMCSA-RRT-09-023 based on ATRI research. February 2009.

20. Carrier safety manager: the most important person in truck safety! Driver selection Training Evaluation Behavioral management: –Rewards –Discipline & remediation Vehicle technologies & maintenance Risk avoidance; e.g., dispatching & routing.

21. Safety Management: Comprehensive and Targeted Principal Target for Improved Safety

22. KSA (Knowledge, Skill, Attitude) 3-Legged Stool: Basic Elements of Driver Behavior & Training Attitudes: (a)Hard to change (related to personality) (b)Often lead to worst crashes

23. Carrier Safety Manager Training & Development Safety Knowledge: Regulatory compliance Crash risk factors Crash causes Crash investigation Vehicle maintenance Safety technologies Driver selection Driver training Driver fatigue, scheduling & dispatching Behavioral safety management. Supervisory Skills: Planning Controlling Problem solving Monitoring performance Training & coaching Rewarding & disciplining Managing time Oral communication Written communication Self-development Representing company.

24. What motivates carrier safety? Safety Culture Study Carrier Survey Results 1.Reduce crashes & injuries 2.Set high industry safety standard 3.Decrease insurance costs 4.Avoid costly lawsuits 5.Avoid enforcement penalties 6.Attract & retain drivers 7.Attract & retain customers. * Short, J. et al. Synthesis 14: The Role of Safety Culture in Preventing CMV Crashes. TRB Truck & Bus Synthesis Program, 2007.

25. The Business Model of Truck Safety Business Benefits of Safety: Reduced costs Improved productivity Enhanced quality Improved employee: –Relations –Morale –Retention –Off-the-job safety awareness Better organizational image Organizational pride.

26. Freight Revenue Needed to Compensate for Crash Loss Company Profit Margin: Crash Loss: 1%3%5% $1,000 $100,000$33,000$20,000 $25,000 $2.5 Million$833,000$500,000 $1 Million $100 Million$33.3 Million$20 Million

27. Compliance with Regulations PLUS Active “Beyond Compliance” Carrier Management

28. Safety for the Long Haul Large Truck Crash Risk, Causation, & Prevention Publisher: ATA 13 chapters encompassing: –Basic crash concepts –Risk –Causation –Countermeasures –Safety management –National policy. Target audiences: –Carrier safety managers –Government & industry officials –Students Availability: www.atabusinesssolutions.com/

29. Thanks for your attention! Ron Knipling (703) 533-2895 rknipling@verizon.net www.safetyforthelonghaul.com Website information & downloads: Book overview & detailed outline Training seminar information Crash & risk analysis guide Publications: –Safety management reports –Safety research –Articles on truck safety Presentations.