1. Geopolitical issues Part III

2. Population displacements and migration Session 5

3. Introduction  Throughout history, men have always migrated for environmental reasons  But that’s also a reason largely ignored by researchers and policy makers.  Despite growing concerns  Linkage between environment and migration still controversial

4. Historical examples

6. The emergence of the concept  First mentioned in the 1970s  First UNEP report in 1985  Growing interest in the mid-2000s:  Realisation of the impacts of climate change  Major natural disasters  Tsunami 2004  Katrina 2005  Pakistan earthquake 2005 > Confusion between displacements linked to climate change and other environmental degradation.

8. A complex relationship  Migration itself is a very complex process Involves a wide array of factors, individual decision  Environmental factors are linked with economic, social and political factors When is environmental pressure the primary factor?  Environmental disruption can be a cause and a consequence of migration Resource scarcity, ‘green’ conflicts,...  Migration can also help to reduce the presure on resources

9. Which impacts of climate change can lead to displacements?

10. 1. Sea-level rise Coastal regions will be first and most affected Source: NASA A sea-level rise of 1cm puts 1 million people at risk of displacement

11. 2. Droughts and land degradation  Impacts on migration difficult to forecast  Migration flows tend to decrease at the peak of droughts  That’s because households affect their resources to primary needs.

12. 3. Extreme meteorological events

14. Characteristics of the migrants  Positive relationship between environmental degradation and migration.  Different factors intermingle, but environmental factors are of growing importance.  Definitional issue  These factors increase the constraints to migration  Rise in forced migration  Migration flows are often internal, and happening on short distances  Affected countries bear all the burden of migration.  The most vulnerable are often unable to migrate.  Migration is expensive

15. Issue of the definition  Difficult  Mostly internal migration  Mingles with other factors  Controversial  Alarmists vs sceptics  A broad definition invites large numbers  Different agendas  Wide variety of terms (often misnomers)  Important  Policy-wise  Allows to forecast numbers

16. A disconnection from the realities of migration  Migrants are seen as expiatory, resourceless victims of climate change.  Many of them don’t consider themselves as victims, or don’t want to be considered as such.  Migrants are resourceful agents – they are not the most vulnerable  Migration is perceived as an adaptation failure  In many cases, it can be an adaptation strategy  We assume a direct, causal relationship between climate change and migration.  We expect that these displacements will be forced and international.  We assume that the nature and extent of the migration flows will depend upon the impacts of climate change.  Environmental determinism  Climate-induced migration often perceived as a threat to security.  In many cases, it can actually improve human security.

17. London Futures, exhibition at the Museum of London

19. Example 1 Tuvalu

20. Key facts about Tuvalu  Successfully marketed itself as a country at risk of being washed away by sea-level rise, sending out the first ‘ climate change refugees ’  Archipelago of nine islands, five of them are coral atolls.  Around 9,500 inhabitants; 4,500 live on the main atoll, Funafuti.  26 km2, one of the world ’ s highest population density (373, but 1,610 in Funafuti)  Highest point at 4 m above sea-level

21. Tuvalu ’ s economy  Only resources are stamps, «.tv » internet domain and fishing licences  Wholly artificial economy, entirely dependant upon international aid (trust fund, remittances, etc.)  Very few jobs and high unemployment rate

22. Climate change  Major concern amongst inhabitants, fear of a brutal tsunami or hurricane  Extreme vulnerability to sea-level rise

23.  Effects of climate change difficult to assess  Lack of scientific data about sea-level rise, no measurements  People rely on anecdotal evidence, oral environmental history  King tides every year, in February-March

24. King tides

25. Other environmental issues  Overpopulation  Waste disposal  ‘Borrow pits’  Lack of drinkable water  Soil salinity

26. Migration  Important internal migration, from outer islands to Funafuti  About 3,000 Tuvaluans living in Auckland  Forced or voluntary migration? Issue of timescale  The whole region is highly prone to migration, part of Polynesian lifestyle  New Zealand is the only possible destination:  Pacific Access Category  Seasonal labour scheme

27. Resettlement  Considered many times in Tuvalu ’ s history  In 1890s, suggested as a solution to overpopulation problem  Population of Funafuti relocated on an outer island by Americans during WWII  Purchase of the island of Kioa in 1951  Repeated plea by the government, in relation to climate change  However, works by John Campbell (Waikato U.) show difficulties in community relocation

28. Expatriates in Auckland  About 3,000 Tuvaluans living in West Auckland  NZ Government supporting some aspects of cultural life  Some weight in national and local politics  ‘ Pull ’ factor of migration

29. Government ’ s dilemmas  Adapt or flee? Role of the state is crucial  The government is actually encouraging emigration - ‘ We want to give people a choice before it is too late ’  But also needs to keep attracting international aid  Preparing resettlement would clash with population ’ s views

30. Do people move because of climate change?  Wide range of factors:  Family and social networks in New Zealand  Job opportunities, better wages  Only the wealthier can afford to migrate ... And concerns about sea-level rise  Key factor: uncertainty about the future, that acts as a trigger.

31. Uncertainty and futurity  People do not migrate for themselves, but for their children - some of them born in New Zealand  Concerns about the future of Tuvalu seem more important than actual degradations of the environment  Issue of uncertainty and futurity  Migration as a risk-reduction strategy for the family

32. Example 2 Katrina

33. Basic facts  One of the worst disasters in US history:  About 2,000 fatalities  75 % of homes in New Orleans destroyed  1,200,000 people evacuated on the Gulf Coast  US$ 85 billion damage  Disaster mainly due to the levee breaches  One quarter of New Orleans population without car  Help didn ’ t arrive before Setember 3rd, four days after the disaster

35. Evacuation  Mandatory evacuation ordered by Mayor Nagin on August 28.  Overall quite successful: 85 % evacuated  About 60,000 were stranded in the city  Because they had no car  Because they were ill, old, or disabled  Because they had pets  Because they didn ’ t know where to go  Because they were unwilling to leave

36. Evacuation patterns  Extremely diversified  Some people traveled very far away, others stayed relatively close.  Some traveled on their own, others were evacuated.  Some stayed with friends/relatives, others stayed in hotels/rented properties  Some could choose where they were going, others not  And some did not move at all. > The perception of the evacuation was also very diverse.

37. Three conclusions > Despite the collective dimension of the tragedy, the evacuation process was an individual process. > Forced or voluntary migration? People ’ s perceptions are very different. > The most vulnerable were far less off

38. Most vulnerable were far less off  Many were stranded in the city.  Those evacuated had no choice of their destination  This affected their ability to cope while away  Tend to blame Government and FEMA more severely.  Issue of adaptability > Katrina was also, and maybe most of all, a social disaster.

39. Return  Also very diverse patterns: some returned quickly, others after some time, others not at all.  Only about half of the population has returned to the city:  37 % live in Louisiana  34 % live in Texas (mostly Houston)  9 % live in Georgia (mostly Atlanta)  20 % live in another state  Only 11 % plan to return  52 % are certain they will not return  Migration rather than displacement

41. Exemple 3 - Fukushima

42. (22 Apr – 30 Sep 2011) (30 Sep 2011 - present) Restricted Area Evacuation- Prepared Area Deliberate Evacuation Area Specific Spots Recommended for Evacuation Evacuation zones

43. Trauma and tensions

44. http://www.devast-project.org

45. Policy responses: Different directions  Environmental policies  Rapid evolution since the 1990s  People displaced by natural disasters and/or climate change increasingly taken into account  New actors and structures: IASC, CCEMA, rise of adaptation in climate talks  New instruments:  Hyogo Framework  Operational Guidelines on Human Rights and Natural Disasters  Adaptation Funds > Climate negotiations often considered as the central policy forum with regard to environmental migration

46.  Migration and asylum policies  Have not really taken into account environmental factors so far  Very little progress in the governance of migration, no new instruments  Exception: temporary protection status  Two points to consider:  Traditional theories of migration are environmentally-blind  Migration scholars have a lesser impact on policy design than environmental scholars

47. Legal matters  People displaced by climate change are not refugees, according to the 1951 Geneva Convention:  No political persecution  But isn’t climate change a violent, political persecution to the most vulnerable?  Not always a border crossing  The displaced people flee their livelihood, not always their country  Forced migration?  Climate change adds a new dimension to the traditional distinction between forced and voluntary migration.

48. Two key policy issues  Enabling the right to leave  Enabling the right to choose  This will require different policy shifts:  Going beyond humanitarian aid  Not discriminating between displacements associated with climate change and those that are not.  Not restricting oneself to refugee law (Hyogo Framework, etc.)  Not focusing only on those who leave, but also one those who stay, sometimes forcibly.

49. Enabling the right to leave A challenge of migration policy  The right to leave is the key condition of asylum, originating after the Peace of Westphalia.  This right is currently jeopardised by environmental change.  The most vulnerable often find themselves unable to leave  Because they don’t have the resources to do so  Because of barriers to migration  Their life, health and livelihood are directly exposed to danger  Migration as a risk-reduction strategy  Issue of pro-active population displacements

50. Enabling the right to choose A challenge of adaptation policy  Many of the migrants are forced migrants, and many of the stayers are forced stayers.  Adaptation  In the origin region, adaptation will reduce the environmental constraints to migration.  Migration itself can be an adaptation strategy.  Adaptation will also be needed in the destination regions.  Adaptation and disaster-risk reduction  Burden-sharing and internationalisation of the costs.  No discrimination between climate change and other disasters.