1. The “Scientific Method” Malcolm Crowe 15 March 2004

2. Why? MSc should “demonstrate sustained rational argument” MSc should “demonstrate sustained rational argument” “Scientific method” is a frequently cited model for rational argument “Scientific method” is a frequently cited model for rational argument Really a style of discourseReally a style of discourse Famous and still controversialFamous and still controversial This lecture will give some history This lecture will give some history And present conventions 2000+And present conventions 2000+

3. References Gjertsen, D: Science and Philosophy (Penguin 1989) Gjertsen, D: Science and Philosophy (Penguin 1989) Whewell, W (1840): Philosophy of the Inductive Sciences (Thoemmes 1999) Whewell, W (1840): Philosophy of the Inductive Sciences (Thoemmes 1999) Feyerabend, P (1975): Against method (Verso 1988) Feyerabend, P (1975): Against method (Verso 1988)

4. Scientific Method Birth to Death The likely story (Plato, 360BC) The likely story (Plato, 360BC) Hypothesis (Bacon 1620, Descartes 1644) Hypothesis (Bacon 1620, Descartes 1644) Reid (1785) Explanation not enough Reid (1785) Explanation not enough Hypothetico-deductive (Whewell 1840) Hypothetico-deductive (Whewell 1840) Modernism (Popper 1934) Modernism (Popper 1934) Failure of modernism: Failure of modernism: Scientific diversity (marine biology, strings)Scientific diversity (marine biology, strings) Mathematics collapses (Russell 1902)Mathematics collapses (Russell 1902) The Bohr-Einstein debate (1948)The Bohr-Einstein debate (1948) Postmodernism (Rorty 1981) Postmodernism (Rorty 1981)

5. Induction and Deduction Aristotle (330 BC) dialectics.. induction and deduction Aristotle (330 BC) dialectics.. induction and deduction deduction from premises to resultsdeduction from premises to results induction to find premises (but how?)induction to find premises (but how?) Great scientific disasters: Lavoisier (1789), Kelvin Great scientific disasters: Lavoisier (1789), Kelvin eliminative induction (Bacon 1605)eliminative induction (Bacon 1605) resolution and composition (Mill 1843)resolution and composition (Mill 1843) complex methods did not help muchcomplex methods did not help much blind application of induction failsblind application of induction fails

6. Hypothetico-Deductive Method Plato (Timaeus) look for a likely story Plato (Timaeus) look for a likely story with observed state a natural outcomewith observed state a natural outcome F Bacon (1620) scientific approach F Bacon (1620) scientific approach “places all wits.. nearly on a level”“places all wits.. nearly on a level” though techniques may require masterythough techniques may require mastery science advances by rational argumentscience advances by rational argument Descartes (1644) hypothesis: Descartes (1644) hypothesis: story that explains many observationsstory that explains many observations Whewell (1840) requires prediction Whewell (1840) requires prediction and some luck: results must be newand some luck: results must be new Einstein (1915) Theory of Relativity Einstein (1915) Theory of Relativity

7. Scientific Theories are systems of hypotheses are systems of hypotheses satisfying set of causal explanationssatisfying set of causal explanations need revision if predictions fail need revision if predictions fail Popper (1934) “falsification”Popper (1934) “falsification” incorrect appeal to mathematical logic incorrect appeal to mathematical logic theories are not disproved theories are not disproved but qualified by more successful onesbut qualified by more successful ones sometimes facts are discarded too sometimes facts are discarded too

8. Postmodernism Postmodernism suspicious of Postmodernism suspicious of grand narratives, universal methodsgrand narratives, universal methods absolute realities or objective truthsabsolute realities or objective truths So just present your ideas rationally So just present your ideas rationally obey normal conventions of subjectobey normal conventions of subject don’t fudge the data too muchdon’t fudge the data too much don’t block the line of inquirydon’t block the line of inquiry Importance of academic community Importance of academic community What community are you writing for?What community are you writing for? Rorty (1991) solidarityRorty (1991) solidarity

9. Practice today Convincing investigation Convincing investigation Hypotheses from anywhere Hypotheses from anywhere similarity to previous successful onessimilarity to previous successful ones should account for existing datashould account for existing data Should make usable predictions Should make usable predictions look for better hypotheses if notlook for better hypotheses if not At least write it up this way round At least write it up this way round even if you got the data firsteven if you got the data first critics say that cheating is necessarycritics say that cheating is necessary

10. Objectivity Rorty (1980) merely a compliment Rorty (1980) merely a compliment no method of absolute truthno method of absolute truth Try to avoid personal opinion Try to avoid personal opinion offer a road anyone can followoffer a road anyone can follow experiments in principle repeatableexperiments in principle repeatable arguments acceptable in communityarguments acceptable in community Kierkegaard (1840) Focus on results Kierkegaard (1840) Focus on results subjective writing focuses on processsubjective writing focuses on process

11. Project Guidelines Use hypothetico-deductive method Use hypothetico-deductive method requires no justificationrequires no justification will please examinerswill please examiners In qualitative research use questions In qualitative research use questions Recall or make use of prior work Recall or make use of prior work hypothesis/questions should use thishypothesis/questions should use this Conclusions should hint at prediction Conclusions should hint at prediction

12. Questions to ask yourself Have I covered all the angles? Have I covered all the angles? Why these particular examples? Why these particular examples? Why these interviewees? Why these interviewees? Are all the suspects included? Are all the suspects included? Is this induction or deduction? Is this induction or deduction? How could my hypothesis be disproved? How could my hypothesis be disproved?