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Give me a higher return The Signature Income & Growth story
Geof Marshall, CFA and Malcolm White, CFA
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Finding income in a low yield world
Relative value in a traditional balanced asset mix Forward earnings yield based on IBES 12-month forward S&P 500 earnings
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Income opportunities – high-yield bonds
“Yield is a head start on outperformance” Offset equity volatility Offset interest rate risk High yield: 90% of the monthly return of stocks with 45% of the volatility = 2x higher risk-adjusted returns $1 trillion market 17% of the S&P 500 is high-yield rated Cannot do this yourself - covenants and diversification matter, cannot rely on credit ratings Avoiding defaults = outperformance Quick comment on high yield valuations: price, yields, spreads, expected defaults, spread per turn of leverage –– High yield cumulative return –– S&P 500 cumulative return
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High-yield bonds More to credit analysis than credit ratings:
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High-yield bonds More to credit analysis than credit ratings:
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Sears overview More to credit analysis than credit ratings:
Retailing icon founded in 1893 4,000 Retail Locations, #4 Broadline retailer in the U.S. Hedge fund ownership Sears and Kmart combined in March 2005 Strategy remains adrift, financial results deteriorating Sears introduction slide Security = working capital but no limit on additional sec’d debt Real estate not included Brands (Land’s End, Kenmore, Craftsman) not included No restrictions on value leakage (share buybacks)
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Neiman Marcus overview
More to credit analysis than credit ratings: Women’s luxury apparel retailer 44 stores in the U.S. including Bergdorf Goodman in New York 2005 private equity leveraged buyout Luxury consumer is back InCircle customer focus sets them apart Store growth has resumed Number of stores Bergdorf-Goodman Same-store sales growth Growth potential Luxury consumer De-leveraging + dividend
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Income opportunities: High-yield bonds
Bond comparison Sears Holding <SHLF> Neiman Marcus <NMG> 6.625% due 10/15/2018 10.375% due 10/15/2015 Call schedule Non-callable With 30 days notice at or at beginning 10/15/12 Structure Senior secured Senior subordinated Credit ratings at time of issue Ba1 / BB+ (September 2010) B3 / B- (September 2005) Credit ratings now B2 / B (Negative outlook both) Caa1 / B- (both Stable)
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Four C’s of credit analysis: Capacity to repay
Sears 90% decline in EBITDA since ~2006 18 quarters of negative same-store sales growth $40 billion in sales, ~$400mm in capital expenditures Canada no longer an ATM Answer = asset sales Neiman Marcus EBITDA approaching pre- recession highs Positive same-store sale growth trend since 2010 Sponsor dividend funded by cash on hand Capital markets receptive to this company Advantage: NMG
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Four C’s of credit analysis: Character
Sears Revolving door management – new CEO has no previous retail experience Asset stripping and self-dealing Weak reporting standards and high executive turnover Unreasonable shareholder activity Neiman Marcus New CEO, promoted from within Depth and longevity to management team Best-in-class private company disclosure Reasonable shareholder activity Advantage: NMG
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Four C’s of credit analysis: Collateral
Sears Significant inventories Material owned real estate assets Valuable brands: Kenmore, Craftsman, DieHard Land’s End Sears Canada Neiman Marcus Small proportion of owned real estate Merchandise inventory subject to fashion risk Business model generates consistent cash flow International markets remain untapped Advantage: Tie
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Four C’s of credit analysis: Covenants
Sears 2nd lien on inventory and accounts receivable with put right Yard sale of real estate and brands continues Introduction of additional secured debt probable Unlimited restricted payments Neiman Marcus Most junior debt in capital structure No security Significant layering possible ‘Covenant-lite’ capital structure Restricted payments largely exhausted Advantage: Tie
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Income opportunities: High-yield bonds
Price difference: bad business = volatility –– Nieman Marcus Bond –– Sears bond Source: Bank of America
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Income opportunities: High-yield bonds
Performance difference: aiming for ‘boring’ SHLD6.625% NMG10.375% Cumulative performance since September 2010 -1.4% 17.5% Source: Bank of America
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What happens when interest rates rise?
High yield and U.S. investment grade bond return correlations to 5-year U.S. Treasuries (52 week trailing) Source: Bank of America
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What happens when interest rates rise?
High-yield bond returns during past federal funds rate tightening episodes (total returns/not annualized) Source: UBS (Federal Reserve Board and Bureau of Economic Analysis) Index data is Bank of America Merrill High Yield Master II Index in USD
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Ways to gain exposure to Signature’s high-yield bond portfolio
Fund name Exposure to high-yield bond portfolio (%) Signature High Yield Bond Fund 100% Signature Corporate Bond Fund 59% Signature Diversified Yield Fund 47% Signature High Income Fund 35% Select Income Advantage Managed CC 22% Signature Income & Growth Fund 17% Aside from the new Signature High Yield Bond Fund, there are a number of Signature funds that have exposure to the high-yield bond portfolio. These funds include Signature Corporate Bond Fund, Signature Diversified Yield Fund, Signature High Income Fund, Select Income Advantage Managed Corporate Class and CI Income Fund and Signature Income & Growth Fund. So, if you are looking for exposure to an asset class that can provide you with equity-like returns but with less volatility, you can turn to any of the above funds to complement your portfolio. Source: CI Investments, March 2012
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CI Signature Diversified Yield Fund
YTD 1 Year 2 Year Since inception* Signature Diversified Yield Fund 5.1% 1.9% 6.2% 6.1% Quartile 1 2 n/a *Inception November 2009 Source: Globefund
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CI Signature High Income Fund
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year Since inception* Signature High Income Fund 3.7% 18.1% 4.5% 9.2% 9.7% Quartile 1 N/A *Inception December 1996 Source: Globefund
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CI Signature Corporate Bond Fund
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year Since inception* Signature Corporate Bond Fund 5.3% 11.6% 5.1% 4.7% 4.5% Quartile 2 3 N/A *Inception December 2001 Source: Globefund
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GROWTH
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The Hype was Real – Just The Timing was Wrong
Source: Gartner, Bloomberg
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More Devices than People
Source: Intel
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Facebook – the largest country in the world
Facebook users (in millions) Source: Facebook; Graph by Ben Foster
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Facebook – we know where you live & who you know
Source: Facebook
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More data than the world has ever seen
Source: Passive Pundits
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Powered by Virtual Cities of Infrastructure
What is 10PB; Source: Backblaze
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Yes, they do make money … Source: Google
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… And the possibilities are unthinkable
Source: IBM
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Malcolm White – Portfolio Manager
Malcolm White, CFA Vice-President, Portfolio Management and Portfolio Manager with Signature Global Advisors of CI Investments Inc., has over 16 years of investment experience in a career that included analytic roles at Merrill Lynch Canada and First Marathon Securities (now National Bank Financial). Malcolm specializes in the technology, media and telecommunications sectors. He was selected as one of Canada’s Top 50 Portfolio Managers and global industry expert in recent Brendan Wood International surveys.
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Disclaimer Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Unless otherwise indicated and except for returns for periods less than one year, the indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in security value. All performance data assume reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. ®CI Investments and the CI Investments design are registered trademarks of CI Investments Inc.
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