1. Housing in 2010 Malcolm Rigg Director Policy Studies Institute

2. Why housing? Basic need Basic need Indicator of a well-governed society Indicator of a well-governed society Touchstone of a fair society Touchstone of a fair society Tends to slip beneath the policy radar Tends to slip beneath the policy radar

3. Evaluating the report Does it: Does it: Provide useful numbers? Provide useful numbers? Identify important issues? Identify important issues? Offer helpful conceptual tools? Offer helpful conceptual tools? Help in making sense of the whole? Help in making sense of the whole?

4. Useful numbers on housing? Additional 2.6m households (4.6%) Additional 2.6m households (4.6%) ? Nearer 9% actual growth (top end of scenario) Large shift in household composition to single person households – housing units need to grow faster than population Large shift in household composition to single person households – housing units need to grow faster than population 25% of households would require rented accommodation (much of it subsidised) 25% of households would require rented accommodation (much of it subsidised)

5. Identify important policy issues? Mortgage tax relief Mortgage tax relief Interest rates Interest rates Local Government finance Local Government finance Council house building Council house building Council house sales Council house sales Place & space Place & space Tenants & landlords rights Planning regimes Housing stock condition Environmental ? Market imperfections? ? Financial regulation?

6. Offers useful conceptual tools? Housing particularly sensitive to policy perspectives Housing particularly sensitive to policy perspectives Market driven policies Market driven policies Interventionist policies Interventionist policies Environmental concerns Environmental concerns

7. What’s happened to social (subsidised) housing? Heavy reliance on market based policies Heavy reliance on market based policies Waiting lists continued to grow (1.8m in 2010) Waiting lists continued to grow (1.8m in 2010) Some shift from market based policies back towards intervention since failures apparent in market based policies Some shift from market based policies back towards intervention since failures apparent in market based policies

8. What’s happened to private sector housing? Housing shortages continue Housing shortages continue Prices fuelled by easier access to high mortgages Prices fuelled by easier access to high mortgages In 2006 average house prices six times annual salary In 2006 average house prices six times annual salary Private sector renting as expensive as buying Private sector renting as expensive as buying

9. Help in making sense of the whole?

10. Conclusions Evidence informed policies? Evidence informed policies? 2010 Report identified 2010 Report identified key housing issues key housing issues key policy mechanisms key policy mechanisms sensitivities of housing to policy perspectives sensitivities of housing to policy perspectives Need for deeper analysis of policy mechanisms? Need for deeper analysis of policy mechanisms?