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1 SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002
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2 Objectives The aim is to conduct a research of public agenda in nine countries and territories in South East Europe, namely Bosnia and Herzegovina - Federation BH, Bosnia and Herzegovina - Republika Srpska, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Romania. The purposes of this base line study of public agenda in the region are: To gain information on people’s attitudes, fears and expectation in the main issues that concern their ongoing life and their future; To compare the findings between countries and territories; To draw the conclusions relevant for policy making and strategies for regional development and democratization; To set up a database for a longer term public agenda tracking.
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3 Public Agenda In the current meaning: –Public = sum of persons entitled to vote (usually 18 years and over) –Public Agenda = Issues, fears and concerns regarding the state, society and personal position within them PUBLIC AGENDA MAIN ISSUES: –Governing the state –Economic bases of the social and individual life –Violence, crime, personal security –Politics –Corruption –Environmental issues –International institutions –Domestic institutions
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4 Public Agenda Tracking A public opinion poll, conducted with the same questionnaire on independent national representative samples at regular intervals (usually 1-3 months) –Euro Barometer in Europe and associated countries (www.europa.eu.int) –BOP-in Romania (www.imas.ro) –SMMRI Omnibus –PULS Omnibus
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5 Organisational structure Financed by the Norwegian Foreign Affairs Ministry and International IDEA Incepted and supported by International IDEA Driven by local researchers and think tanks who have organized themselves as the South East Europe Democracy Support Network - SEEDS
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6 List of research institutes Research AreaInstitutePop/millSample BulgariaVITOSHA8.51,148 B&H- FederationPULS2.4 610 B&H - R.SrpskaSMMRI/B&H1.51,034 CroatiaPULS4.31,010 KosovoIS Pristina2.21,017 MacedoniaSMMRI/Skopje1.91,031 MontenegroSMMRI0.61,012 RomaniaIMAS22.51,553 SerbiaSMMRI7.81,523
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7 South Eastern Europe
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8 OPTIMISM vs. PESSIMISM
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9 Kosovo and Serbia show greatest optimism both in relation to one year ago and in the view of the future Bulgaria seems to see the present and the future mostly in dark light
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10 Right direction of the country
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11 Personal economic situation: worse and better than one year ago worse
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12 Personal economic situation: satisfaction with the current level satisfaction
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13 Personal economic situation: one year to come
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14 Personal economic situation : 5 year expectations
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15 PUBLIC ISSUES
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16 Public Agenda:National Issues The list with national issues on the public agenda was drafted during the Oslo Meeting (May 2000), and checked during the qualitative phase. Almost all issues look to be important for the SEE public, with notable differences. However a large gap between the political, intellectual and media elite - as they were captured during the qualitative phase - and the public are to be underlined. The elite is more focused on ethnic issues, historical disputes, and philosophical analysis, whilst the public is more concerned with unemployment, corruption, poverty, inflation and family income.
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17 Public Agenda Quantitative Measurement Unemployment Corruption Poverty Crime Inflation Family income Stability of the State Drug and alcohol abuse Jobs for our children My country’s acceptance into EU and/or NATO Legal system Ethnic conflicts Lack of morality Welfare system Inadequate bureaucracy “There are many problems facing our country today. I'm going to hand you a card that lists some. Please pick and rank what you believe are the three most important issues”.
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18 The three most important issues for SEE are: –unemployment, –poverty and –corruption.
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19 Public Issues: Summary
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20 Public Issues: Unemployment
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21 Public Issues: Corruption
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22 Public Issues: Poverty
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23 Public Issues: Crime
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24 Public Issues: Inflation
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25 Public Issues: Family Income
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26 PERSONAL FEARS
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27 Public Agenda: Personal Fears Personal fears (or potential threats to the personal life) are usually in the field of personal health, job security, future of children, pensions etc. When personal fears are almost the same as national issues, the public believe that their personal lives are profoundly affected by national policies. That is the case in all SEE countries. “ What do you fear the most in the present?” Open answer question-top of mind answer.
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28 Personal Fears: Summary
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29 Personal Fears: Poverty
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30 Personal Fears: Unemployment
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31 Personal Fears: Bad Political Situation
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32 Personal Fears: War
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33 Personal Fears: Crime
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34 INSTITUTIONS
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35 KOSOVO ROMANIA B&H - FEDERATION MONTENEGRO CROATIA SERBIA B&H – REPUBLIC OF SRPSKA MACEDONIA BULGARIA GENERAL TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS
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36 TRUST IN DOMESTIC INSTITUTIONS
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37 Most trusted institutions in SEE are the Church, Army and Universities Parliaments, governments and courts are among the least trusted institutions
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39 Trust in Institutions: Church
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40 Trust in Institutions: Presidency
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41 Trust in Institutions: Parliament
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42 Trust in Institutions: Government
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43 Trust in Institutions: Local Authorities
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44 Trust in Institutions: Courts
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45 Trust in Institutions: Police
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46 Trust in Institutions: Army
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47 Trust in Institutions: Trade Unions
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48 Trust in Institutions: NGOs
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49 Trust in Institutions: Universities
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50 Trust in Institutions: Summary
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51 STEPS FORWARD...
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52 Domestic Economy vs. International Integration
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53 TRUST IN INTERNATIONAL PERSONALITIES
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54 Kofi Annan Awareness vs. Trust
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55 George Robertson Awareness vs. Trust
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56 George W. Bush Awareness vs. Trust
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57 Vladimir Putin Awareness vs. Trust
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58 Romano Prodi Awareness vs. Trust
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59 INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS
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60 The four most trusted institutions in SEE are EU, UN, the World Bank and NATO
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61 TRUST IN INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS
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62 EU Awareness vs. Trust
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63 UN Awareness vs. Trust
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64 WB Awareness vs. Trust
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65 NATO Awareness vs. Trust
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66 ICTY (The Hague Tribunal) Awareness vs. Trust
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67 IMF Awareness vs. Trust
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68 OSCE Awareness vs. Trust
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69 STABILITY PACT
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70 Stability Pact for SEE Awareness vs. Trust
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71 SPSEE AWARENESS - TRUST
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72 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Cooperation & Threats
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73 COUNTRIES PREFERRED FOR COOPERATION
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75 COUNTRIES PERCEIVED AS A THREAT
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77 MASS MEDIA
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78 Trust in Mass Media
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79 Perceived Mass Media Behaviour
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80 Mass Media: Perceived Independence
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81 APPRECIATION OF PUBLIC SERVICES
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82 PUBLIC HEALTH SYSTEM
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83 PENSION FUNDS
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84 EDUCATION SYSTEM
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85 HEATING
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86 WATER SUPPLY
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87 PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
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88 ELECTRICITY
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89 TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
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90 SOCIAL CARE
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91 POLICE
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