1. Bosnia and Herzegovina Conflict Analysis Steering Board Ambassadors/Board of Principles/ meeting Sarajevo, 8 October 2013 1

2. Overview 1. Methodology 2. State of mind 3. Perception of problems 4.Institutions and governance 5.International Community enagegment 6. Agents of change 7. Citizen participation 8. Varying views with regard to B&H perspective (table) 9. Views of the past and reconcilliation 10. Vision of B&H 11. Security: likelyhood of violence 12. Focus grups: main issues 13. Conclusions 2

3. 1.Methodology 1.Multidimensional Questionnaire 2.Prism research Public Opinion Poll, May 7th to 22nd 2013; Research sample and size: – 1500 respondents ; – 805 Bosniaks, 178 Croats and 462 Serbs; – 840 of the respondents live in rural, 660 in urban areas. 3.Desk review 4.Interviews and consultations – Interviews with key stakeholders – Focus groups, May 24 – June 4. 2013 : Youth, working class, demobilized soldiers and women; Over 50 participants in total from across BiH; Facilitated and assisted by several local experts. 3

4. 2. State of mind 50.2% 50.2% of the respondents describe their state of mind over the past year in negative terms (lethargic); 12% 12% satisfied, optimistic or content; 52.2% 52.2% feel their life is the same; 39.6% 39.6% worse than a year ago; 49.3% 49.3% expect it to be the same by the next year; 33.1% 33.1% worse by the next year. 4

5. State of Mind 5

6. 3. Perception of Problems 72.4%corruption 72.4% of respondents see corruption as the main problem across the country; 59% economy 59% see economy as the main problem; 50.5%politics 50.5% see politics as the main problem; 6

7. 4.Institutions and governance - Trust police 51.8% have confidence in the police; religious leaders 42.7% in religious leaders; 28.6% trust 28.6% trust international community 24.4 % and 16.6 % trust entity and cantonal governments, and 11.4 % trust the politicians, one in 10 citizens Only one in 10 citizens trust local politicians. 7

8. Levels of trust Institutions and governance: Levels of trust 8

9. 5. International Community engagement Active engagement: Active engagement: 69.6%71.5% 69.6% (FB&H)71.5% (Bosniak) 25.3%18.2% 25.3% (RS) 18.2% (Serb) 57.4%61.3% 57.4% (BD)61.3% (Croat) No engagement: No engagement: 9.6%11.2%( 9.6% (FB&H) 11.2%(Bosniak) 48.8%52.4%( 48.8% (RS) 52.4%(Serb) 11.7% 11.4% 11.7% (BD) 11.4%(Croat) 9

10. 6. Agents of change 63.0% 63.0% youth 50.5% c 50.5% citizens 26.1 % 26.1 % intellectuals 24.2% 24.2% international community 53.0% support 53.0% support active international engagement. 10

11. 7. Citizen participation Disinterest in actively participating in changing the society: 53.85 % 53.85 % willing to vote in the elections; 34.5 % 34.5 % willing to leave the country; 31.1 % 31.1 % would demonstrate; 16.7% 16.7% willing to join a citizens’ action group; 14.5% 14.5% a political party; 6.6% 6.6% ready to use force or violence if necessary. 11

12. 8. Varying views with regard to B&H`s EU perspective 12

13. 9. Views of the past and reconcilliation Ethnic groups have starkly different views of the past conflict: 39.7% of the respondents believe that there has been reconciliation in BiH; 13 % believe that reconcilliation is possible; 73% would prefer to live in communities dominated by their own ethic group. 13

14. 10. Vision of B&H 71.9% of Serbs and 53.6% Croats wish to live in independent mono-ethnic entities; 36.7% of Bosniaks desire to live in B&H within its current borders, 20.6% of them wish to live in an independent Bosniak entity; 28.5% of them accept living inB&H within it‘s current borderds and entities. 14

15. 11. Security: likelyhood of violence 2/3 believe that the outbreak of new armed conflict in the Balkan region is not likely in the next 5 years; 35.7 % from all ethnic groups think that there could be some violence (criminal acts, violent protests, separate ethnic incidents,broader ethnic conflict); Likelihood of B&H not splitting peacefully? o 58.8 % Bosniaks o 55% Croats o 44.7% Serbs 15

16. Security: likelyhood of violence If integrity of BiH was threatened… Use peaceful means 54.4% Bosniaks 54.4% Bosniaks 45% Croats 45% Croats 30.6% Serbs 30.6% Serbs Willing to take up arms 13.5% Bosniaks 13.5% Bosniaks 12.6% Croats and 12.6% Croats and 1.5% Serbs 1.5% Serbs Not engage at all 28.4% Bosniaks, 28.4% Bosniaks, 40.1% Croats and 40.1% Croats and 64.9% Serbs would not engage in any way. 64.9% Serbs would not engage in any way. 16

17. 12. Focus groups: main issues Democratic process: high level of election fraud; Democratic process: high level of election fraud; Corruption as a parallel system, more trusted than administration; Corruption as a parallel system, more trusted than administration; Heavily dependent on the international community. Heavily dependent on the international community. 17

18. 13. Conclusions Lethargy prevents change Lethargy prevents change Citizens passive, unless threatened… Citizens passive, unless threatened… But majority feel their ethnic group still being threatened But majority feel their ethnic group still being threatened Wrong perception of international engagement Wrong perception of international engagement Crisis of common identity and all levels of society (that no constitutional reform can fix) Crisis of common identity and all levels of society (that no constitutional reform can fix) Future uncertain and unpredictable Future uncertain and unpredictable 18