1. Michael Mabe Visiting Professor City University, London and University of Tennessee, Knoxville THE FUNCTION OF THE JOURNAL Developing a predictive model for scholarly communication

2. System Drivers Major drivers –Researcher behaviour as authors –Human factors: ego, recognition, renown Amplifying factors –Professional environment Reward mechanisms –Institutional environment Tenure and support –Governmental and societal factors Resource justification and allocation

3. First Scientific Journal 6th March 1665 Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Ed. Henry Oldenburg Secretary of the Royal Society First true scholarly journal Published for profit at Oldenburg’s expense

4. Inventing the Journal: Oldenburg’s Letters [We must be] very careful of registring as well the person and time of any new matter.., as the matter itselfe; whereby the honor of ye invention will be inviolably preserved to all posterity. [Oldenburg, 24 November 1664] all Ingenious men will be thereby incouraged to impart their knowledge and discoveryes [Oldenburg, 3 December 1664] [I should not] neglect the opportunity of having some of my Memoirs preserv’d, by being incorporated into a Collection, that is like to be as lasting as usefull [Boyle, 1665] [Phil. Trans. should be] licensed under the charter by the Council of the Society, being first reviewed by some of the members of the same.” [R.Soc. Order in Council 1/3/1665]

5. Peer Reviewed Journal Growth 1665-2001 Data from Ulrich’s International Periodicals Directory on CD-ROM Summer 2001 Edition Total number of active refereed learned journals in 2004: 17,700 M A Mabe The growth and number of journals Serials 16(2).191-7, 2003

6. Article Growth 1981-2002 ~3% p.a. ISI Data

7. Journals & Researcher Growth More researchers ⇒ more journals Source data: NSF, Ulrich’s & ISI

8. Current Environment 2,000+ journal publishers –600 commercial, 1400+ not for profit 18,000 active, peer reviewed journals 1.2-1.4 m articles published yearly ~1 m unique authors each year ~10-15 m readers

9. X X X X X X X ? X X X X ? X X X ? ? ? Scientific Communication Units ? X

10. Scientific Communication Vehicles X X X X ? ? X ?

11. How do Authors Choose a Journal? They already know the subject coverage of their research paper and its quality and approach They select the set of most appropriate journals in terms of subject coverage They match the general quality of their paper (best, good, ok) to a class of journals (top, middling, run-of-the-mill) with the same subject and approach From that class they select a specific journal based upon experience

12. How do Authors Choose a Journal? Impact Factor Reputation Editorial Standard Publication speed Access to Audience International Coverage Self Evaluation A&I Coverage Society Link Track Record Quality/Colour Illustrations Service Elements, e.g. author instructions, quality of proofs, reprints, etc Experience as Referee A B C ? ? Marginal Factors: Which Journal? Key Factors: Which Category? Journal Hierarchy J J J J J J J J J J J ? ?

13. quality collection Choice of Journal (Coles 93)

14. Authors’ Reasons for Choosing the Last Journal to Publish in (Ciber 2004) 0 = no influence, 100 = strongest influence

15. What matters most to Authors? Data from 36,188 Authors; 0= unimportant 10= very important 2= 1 6 5 7 8 4 2= QUALITY & SPEED Elsevier survey data presented at Fiesole 2003

16. What do modern researchers want as authors? REGISTRATION: to register a discovery as theirs and made by them on a certain date –to assert ownership and achieve priority CERTIFICATION: To get their research (and by implication, themselves) quality stamped by publication in a journal of known quality –to establish a reputation, and get reward DISSEMINATION: To let their peers know what they have done –to attract recognition and collaboration ARCHIVE: To leave a permanent record of their research –renown, immortality

17. What do modern researchers want as readers? Reassurance as to its status and quality –prestige and authority ⇒ CERTIFICATION Material that is appropriate to their research interest –Specialisation and relevance ⇒ DISSEMINATION Tools that allow the material to be located and browsed –browsing and indexing ⇒ NAVIGATION Availability of sources over time –persistence and continuity ⇒ ARCHIVE

18. A Functional/Behavioural Model for the Journal Needs READERS constant citation authority specialisation continuity navigation Functions JOURNAL registration certification dissemination archive navigation Provided by the publishing entity through –third party authority (rhetorical independence) –brand identity management –long-term management of continuity –technology Needs AUTHORS ownership reputation recognition/audience renown

19. Brand Identity & Its Management EDITOR & BOARD QUALITY SPEED COLLECTION PUBLISHER Research Community Monitoring and feedback

20. Testing the Model: Content Nature of content Objective knowledge about external facts in the world Subjective knowledge about internal critical processes All authors equally able to make “discoveries” Credit goes to who is “first” Registration function Very strong Very weak Priority and speed of publication paramount Each author has his own critical faculties Each author’s “discoveries” can only be his Priority and speed unimportant sciences humanities

21. Testing the Model: Discipline Subject variation Small to Medium Scale Experimental/Empirical Theoretical & V Large Scale Experimental Peer review as methodological and quality filter Certification function Very strong Very weak Theoretical paper, “Right” or “Wrong” by inspection Small fields where quality of each researchers’ work is known personally to peers Many investigators Co-authorship low Co-authorship high MOLECULAR & ATOMIC & SOLID STATE PHYSICS CHEMISTRY LIFE SCIENCES MATERIALS SCIENCE ENGINEERING GEOLOGY THEORETICAL PHYSICS HIGH ENERGY PHYSICS MATHS COMPUTER SCIENCE

22. Where/when the model breaks down… 1Level of Co-authorship 100s Crucial Unimportant Registration Certification Traditional journal culture 4 Ave co-authorship level 2003 Pre-print or self-archiving culture? High Energy Physics

23. Data from ISI Science Citation Index Is Co-authorship Rising? 3.98 3.03 0.75 From: Mabe & Amin ASLIB Proc. 54(3).149-175, 2002

24. The Future: A Tentative Prediction Journal model will remain –Drivers unchanged, human factors same as 1665 –Paradigm collapse by coauthor expansion doesn’t seem likely for 50-100+ years Technology used will develop –Delivery technology has changed –unrecognisable from 10 years ago; paper to www –Unrecognisable in the future? Economic models evolve –Business models are constantly changing –Models can feedback in unexpected ways