1. Valuation in a Recession Craig Wilson Eric Young & Co

3. Valuation In A Recession

4.  When did it all go wrong

5. Valuation In A Recession  When did it all go wrong  What are the consequences

6. Valuation In A Recession  When did it all go wrong  What are the consequences  How do you find the true value

7. When did it all go wrong ?

8. Nov 07 June 07 Poor festive period for retailers Dec ‘07 ‘Rush on Northern Rock continues’ Sep ‘07 ‘government announces that struggling Northern Rock is to be nationalised’ Feb ‘08 ‘The International Monetary Fund (IMF)….warns that potential losses from the credit crunch could reach $1 trillion’ Apr ‘08 MFI sold for £1 and repackaged as Galiform Sep ‘06 ‘Credit crisis hits the high street as both Next and Debenhams warn of tough times ahead’ Mar ‘08

9. Jan 09 Nov 08 Jan 09 Oct 08 July 09 May 08 July 08 Woolworths administration confirmed Nov ‘08 ‘JJB Sports shops shut as profits plummet’ Apr ‘08 Profits plummet at Kesa and Carpetright Dec ‘08 Threshers owner falls into administration Jan ‘09

10. Retail Failures  Jan’08  Feb ’08  Apr ’08  May ’08  June ‘08  Jul ‘08  Sep ‘08  Oct ‘08  Nov ‘08  Dec ‘08  Jan ‘09 Dolcis, Stead & Simpson The Works, Elvi, Base Toyzone, Sleep Depot, Ethel Austin, Internacionale New Heights, Mk One Ilva SCS, Floors-2-Go Rosebys, Joy Miss Sixty, Hardy Amies Mk One, MFI, Woolworths The Pier, Whittards, Officers Club, Zavvi, USC Adams, Passion for Perfume, Miller Bros, Viyella, Card Warehouse, Land of Leather, Threshers

11. When did it all go wrong ? occupational demand slowed in 2007. vacancies and thus supply increased throughout 2007 and 2008. by Sep ‘08 the economy and financial sector was in rapid decline. depending on location/property type, the critical date could be between ’07 to late ’08 and the measure of the impact varied.

12. The Consequences

13.  Increased available space

14. The Consequences  Increased available space The ‘average’ retail vacancy rate has risen from 4%...to almost 12% now’ July 2009

15. The Consequences  Increased available space The ‘average’ retail vacancy rate has risen from 4%...to almost 12% now’ July 2009 ‘ Vacant or available retail warehousing has increased from 5.8% in 2001 to 11.3% in 2008 and 11.6% in 2009 ’ The Definitive Guide to Retail & Leisure Parks - 2010.

18. The Consequences  Increased available space  Less lettings or rent reviews

19. Since January ’10 ;- 15 nil increase rent reviews 49 rent reviews not activated 22 rent reviews ongoing 3 rents increased at review rent review dates ranging from June ‘08 to August ‘10.

20. The Consequences  Increased available space  Less lettings or rent reviews  Multiple administrations & CVA’s

21. The Consequences  Increased available space  Less lettings or rent reviews  Multiple administrations & CVA’s  Rent concessions and lease variations

22. Finding the true rental value

23. The Challenges o More vacant units o Very few lettings o Increase of temporary lets o Rent concessions & lease variations o Nil increase or inactive rent reviews

24. Finding the true value The hierarchy of evidence

25.  Open market lettings & non lettings

26. Finding the true value The hierarchy of evidence  Open market lettings & non lettings  Agreements between valuers at lease renewal or rent review

27. Finding the true value The hierarchy of evidence  Open market lettings & non lettings  Agreements between valuers at lease renewal or rent review  Expert Determinations

28. Finding the true value The hierarchy of evidence  Open market lettings & non lettings  Agreements between valuers at lease renewal or rent review  Expert Determinations  Arbitration Awards

29.  Open market lettings & non lettings Non Lettings ‘The property recession of the early 1990’s also highlighted the important open market evidence of non-lettings. The continued availability in the market place of properties similar to the subject property is evidence of market balance….such evidence if properly presented is not hearsay but fact’ Reynolds & Fetherstonhaugh, Handbook of Rent Review

30.  Open market lettings & non lettings Lettings Increased incidence of ;- 1. Substantial rent free periods 2. large capital payments 3. Reduced lease lengths 4. Turnover only rents How do you analyse ?

31. Former MFI, Kingsway West, Dundee MFI were paying c£375,000 p.a., now occupied by Dunelm paying £270,000 p.a.. They received 4 year rent equivalent as a capital payment on a 15 year lease. RV - £431,200.

32. Former Megabowl, Clyde Retail Park, Clydebank Previous rent c£400,000 in 2004. Now occupied on a new 15 year lease at £90,000 p.a., with a 3 month rent free period and £280,000 contribution. RV - £424,000

33. Dreams, Cuckoo Bridge Retail Park, Dumfries New letting. £131,250 p.a., 10 year lease with a 12 month rent free period and a 12 month tenants only break option.

34.  Rent Agreements renewals and rent reviews

35. o rent reductions at lease renewal

36.  Rent Agreements renewals and rent reviews o rent reductions at lease renewal o lease renewal or lease variation following administration

37.  Rent Agreements renewals and rent reviews o rent reductions at lease renewal o lease renewal or lease variation following administration o nil increase rent review agreements

38.  Rent Agreements renewals and rent reviews o rent reductions at lease renewal o lease renewal or lease variation following administration o nil increase rent review agreements o nil increase rent does not equate to the rental value. It suggests that the open market rent is no more than the passing rent.

39. Finding the true value - conclusions

40. lettings best reflect the rating hypothesis.

41. Finding the true value - conclusions lettings best reflect the rating hypothesis. Consider the availability of space. That is what the hypothetical tenant would do.

42. Finding the true value - conclusions lettings best reflect the rating hypothesis. consider the availability of space. That is what the hypothetical tenant would do. lease or rent variations are evidence of a negotiated rent. It reflects market reality.

43. Finding the true value - conclusions lettings best reflect the rating hypothesis. consider the availability of space. That is what the hypothetical tenant would do. lease or rent variations are evidence of a negotiated rent. It reflects market reality. Timing is critical. Rent reductions have been sharp and steep. Historic rents will often be irrelevant.