1. Canada-U.S. Trade/Traffic Statistics 1972-2009 Transport Canada Economic Analysis October 27, 2010

2. 2 Data sources Merchandise trade: Statistics Canada trade statistics based on customs declarations collected by Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) [Imports] and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) [Exports] Vehicle Traffic: Statistics Canada’s International Travel Survey. Data are built on two sources: Frontier Counts, a census of all travellers who enter into Canada, at all points of entry, supplied by CBSA Mail-back questionnaire which provides further detail on foreign travel characteristics (e.g. duration of trip)

3. Merchandise Trade 1988-2009

4. 4 Trends in Total Canadian Trade: 1988-2009 Trade (Exports+Imports) with the U.S. trebled from 1991-2000 but levelled off during the past decade and then plunged with the current recession. Trade with China increased by a factor of ten from $4 billion in 1991 to $51 billion in 2009.

5. 5 Canada’s Trade With The World: 2004/2009 Comparison

6. 6 Trends in Canada/US Trade by Mode: 1988-2009 Trade carried by the road mode skyrocketed from 1991-2000 but has fallen by 30% from the peak. Trade carried by Other modes (mostly Pipelines) increased by a factor of 10 from 1991-2008

7. 7 Canada/US Trade – Modal Shares: 2009 The market share of the road mode has fallen by 10 points since 1998 while Other (largely pipelines) has risen by nearly 10 points since 2000

8. 8 Top-5 commodity groups in Canada/US road trade Trade in Automotive, Machinery, and Manufactured goods carried by the road mode grew strongly during the 1990s but has since declined

9. 9 Top-5 commodity groups in Canada/US rail trade Automotive trade handled by rail grew by a factor of 5 from 1991-2000 but has declined by 50% since the peak. Forestry products have declined by nearly 60% since 2000

10. 10 Trends in Exports to other countries: 1988-2009 Exports to other countries have grown considerably over the past decade. Manufactured goods exports have doubled since 2000

11. 11 Trends in Imports from other countries: 1988-2009 Imports of machinery and manufactured goods from other countries have grown by a factor of three since 1991.

12. 12 Trends in Canada/US Trade via Ambassador Bridge: 1988-2009 Trade in automotive, machinery and manufactured goods via Ambassador Bridge peaked in 2000 and fell by up to 50% by 2009

13. Cross-Border Vehicle Traffic 1972-2009

14. 14 Overall trends in cross-border vehicle activity, 1972-2009 Car volumes account for majority of activity at border (over 90% of the total up to 1990 and then low 80% after 2000) Truck volumes displayed four distinct growth trends over the period: 1972-1981: 2.1% annual growth 1982-1991: 4.8% annual growth 1991-2000: 7.5% annual growth (trade liberalisation bounce) 2000-2009: -3.6% annual decline (Saturation/ Security/ Recession) Car volumes less affected by economic cycles – more by exchange rate changes and local conditions in communities close to border Car activity peaked in 1991, has been declining since

15. 15 Cross-border car/truck traffic, 1972-2009 Source: Statistics Canada, International travel section. Note: Data refer to vehicles entering Canada.

16. 16 Composition of cross-border car/truck traffic, 1972-2009 Source: Statistics Canada, International travel section. Note: Data refer to vehicles entering Canada.

17. 17 Composition of car traffic, by nationality, 1972-2009 Few differences in the amount of cross-border travel by Canadian and American travelers from 1972-1982 Exception was from 1980-1981 when a large spike in U.S. activity was observed Largely owing to fuel shortages in the U.S. at the time Trends diverged widely during the 1980s Canadian trips to U.S. doubled between 1982 and 1991; U.S. unchanged Series dominated by cross-border shopping “craze” driven by appreciation of Canadian dollar Since 1991, trends reversed: 40% increase in trips by Americans to 2000 then steady decline Huge reduction in Canadian trips back to mid-80s levels; some bounce back with the stronger dollar after 2002

18. 18 Cross-border car traffic, by nationality, 1972-2009 Source: Statistics Canada, International travel section. Note: Data refer to vehicles entering Canada.

19. 19 Composition of car traffic, by type of trip, 1972-2009 Same-day travel accounts for a majority of the crossings but has changed dramatically over the period. Accounted for over 75% of the crossings from 1980- 2000 Has plunged for Canadians since 1990 peak (5:1 ratio is now 2.5:1) and since 2000 for Americans (ratio was 3.5:1 and now is 1.5:1) Overnight travel has been stable over the period Averaged about 3.5 million crossings annually for U.S. and Canadian travellers Split between travellers influenced by exchange rate

20. 20 Cross-border car traffic, by trip type, 1972-2009 Source: Statistics Canada, International travel section. Note: Data refer to vehicles entering Canada.

21. 21 Ratio of Same-day to Overnight travel, by nationality, 1972-2009 Source: Statistics Canada, International travel section. Note: Data refer to vehicles entering Canada.

22. 22 Car Traffic, Selected Crossings, 1972-2009 Source: Statistics Canada, International travel section. Note: Data refer to vehicles entering Canada. Casino traffic from U.S

23. 23 Composition of Truck Traffic, by Nationality, 1972-2003 Canadian trucking cross-border activity higher than U.S. counterparts throughout observed period Gap has widened since trade liberalization In 1991, Canadian activity was 33% higher By 2000, Canadian activity was over 2 times higher Canadian and U.S. crossing activity has fallen nearly 30% since 2000.

24. 24 Cross-border truck traffic by nationality, 1972-2009 Source: Statistics Canada, International travel section. Note: Data refer to vehicles entering Canada.

25. 25 Truck Traffic, Selected Crossings, 1972-2009 Source: Statistics Canada, International travel section. Note: Data refer to vehicles entering Canada.