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1 Energy Outlook 2005-2010 Which Way From Here? OGIS 2005– London, England July 7, 2005 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Thomas A. Petrie,CFA Chairman & CEO Petrie.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Energy Outlook 2005-2010 Which Way From Here? OGIS 2005– London, England July 7, 2005 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Thomas A. Petrie,CFA Chairman & CEO Petrie."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Energy Outlook 2005-2010 Which Way From Here? OGIS 2005– London, England July 7, 2005 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Thomas A. Petrie,CFA Chairman & CEO Petrie Parkman & Co Inc

2 2 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Key Inflationary Measures US West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Spot Price 6/29/2005 Close $57.26

3 3 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. (millions of barrels per day) World Oil Demand – 1993-2005E Source: Bloomberg & IEA YTY percent change 0.7% - 3.8% Avg. 1.9%

4 4 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. ∆ Demand ? Per Capita Annual Oil Consumption

5 5 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Source: International Energy Agency OPEC Excess Crude Production Capacity ?

6 6 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. (millions b/d) End of Decade Potential New Production Sources

7 7 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Current World Production in Decline (Millions b/d) -19.2

8 8 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Source: Bloomberg Oil Prices Supermajor Capex Price Assumptions

9 9 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Source: Bloomberg Natural Gas Prices

10 10 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Source: Petrie Parkman database; Bloomberg. F, D & A Costs Includes APA, APC, BBG, BR, DNR, DVN, EAC, ECA, EOG, EPL, FST, KMG, MHR, NBL, NFX, POG, PPP, PXD, RRC, SFY, SM, SWN, THX, UCL, UPL, WGR, WLL, XEC and XTO.

11 11 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. WTI ( 1995- 2004) Henry Hub ( 1995- 2004) Commodity Price Trends

12 12 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Commodity Price Trends WTI (2005 – 2010 Projected) Henry Hub (2005 – 2010 Projected)

13 13 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. M&A Trends Source: Petrie Parkman transaction database.  Expectations for sustained higher prices, in combination with rebuilt liquidity have supported an increasingly robust asset market  After a marked slowdown in 2002 and 2003, corporate M&A activity has accelerated  Eight corporate transactions in 2004  Three transactions in 2005 YTD  Companies have limited organic growth opportunities  Capital is available

14 14 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Source: Petrie Parkman database; Bloomberg. Acquisition Pricing vs. Commodity Prices Blended Strip (70%/30%) Acquisition Pricing

15 15 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Continued Consolidation via M&A Maturation of the conventional petroleum resource base Middle East dynamics / imponderables Economic growth in China and India Maturing of Russian Export Inclination Forces Shaping the End-of-Decade Petroleum Landscape Forces Shaping the End-of-Decade Petroleum Landscape Result: Continued intensified global competition for energy supplies

16 16 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Spring 1999Fall 2003 Summer 2004 Inflection Point Thesis

17 17 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Market Environment  Energy back at center stage  Oil and natural gas prices have risen to near record levels  Prices expected to remain strong but significant gap remains between Wall Street & Futures Market  Higher commodity prices support:  Accelerated new technology implementation  Increased recovery from existing fields  Development of new resource plays  Premium returns achievable despite high “cost of entry”

18 18 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co.AppendixAppendix

19 19 PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Corporate Transactions 2004 – 2005YTD Source: Petrie Parkman transaction database. Shading represents transactions on which PPC advised.


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