1. Commission for Developing Scotland’s Young Workforce
Background, Conclusions and Implementation Programme

2. Background to the Commission
The Commission for Developing Scotland’s Young Workforce was established in January 2013
Chaired by Sir Ian Wood, it drew its membership from Scotland’s industry and education communities.
It was asked to develop recommendations to Scottish Ministers and COSLA on:
Improvements to vocational and further education starting in the senior phase of CfE; and
Increasing employer engagement with education and youth employment

3. Approach Significant amount of evidence gathering
Direct face to face discussions (300+ people)
2 consultations and a number of ad-hoc information collection exercises
National summit
Young people’s summit
Employers seminar
HR directors seminar
A number of regional sessions (Galashiels to Stornoway)

4. Since the start of the economic downturn youth unemployment has risen more quickly than for other age groups
Unemployment rates for young people are consistently higher than those for other age groups, and have also seen the largest increases in the last few years.
For 16-24s, initially ( ) the sharp rise was due to more young people continuing in full-time education. This shift to education was largely from employment, causing the overall active population to shrink.
Consequently, unemployed young people accounted for a larger proportion of the remaining active population.
Between 2010 and 2011, the increase in the unemployment rate was driven by increasing unemployment.
The unemployment rate for young people has fallen over the last two years but remains high by historical standards.
Unemployment rates in Scotland by age
Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan – Dec, to ONS ( )

5. Young people are important in the labour force
For at least the next 40 years, today’s young people (16-24s) will form part of Scotland’s working age population (defined as all people aged 16 to 64).
By 2030, every person aged under 25 today (2014) will be aged between 16 and 40. Not including migrants, projections suggest this group will account for 45 per cent of the total working age population in 2030.
Looking only at those young people aged under 16 today, they will account for 27 per cent of the working age population in 2030.
Over time, estimates suggest the working age population will form a smaller part of the overall population - falling from 65 per cent in 2014 to 59 per cent in 2030.
In Scotland in 2013, there were around 593,000 young people aged between 16 and 24 (Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec 2013).
Just under half of these young people were in full-time education, just over half were not. Most young people not enrolled in full-time education were working.
Many young people who are in full-time education also work.
Estimated change in Scotland’s population 2014 to 2030
Young people in Scotland’s Labour Market, Jan - Dec 2013
Source: Projected Population of Scotland (2012-based). National Records of Scotland (2013)
Source: Annual Population Survey Jan – Dec Office of National Statistics (ONS) (2014)

6. The cost of youth unemployment is significant
Number of under 25s unemployed by duration 2013
Being unemployed while young can affect future earnings as wages remain lower throughout their working life, even if the person is not unemployed again. It can also increase the chances of being unemployed again.
Other consequences of being unemployed when young emerge later in life including lower life satisfaction and happiness, poorer health, a higher risk of depression and lower job satisfaction. The longer the initial spell of unemployment, the greater the negative effect.
Those most at risk of the long term effects of youth unemployment are school leavers and vulnerable young people with low skills, no/low qualifications and no or little work experience. In 2013, there were 29,000 young people aged not in education, employment or training.
Estimates in 2012 suggested that the average annual cost in benefits of a young unemployed person (18-24) is £5, Based on this, moving 100 of these young jobseekers into employment would save over £500,000 a year in benefit spend.
Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan – Dec ONS (2014)
All under 25s unemployed for 12 months +
Other sources:
Local Area Labour Markets in Scotland - Statistics from the Annual Population Survey Scottish Government (2014)
The Cost of Exclusion: Counting the Cost of Youth Disadvantage in the UK. Prince’s Trust (2010)
The Cost of Youth Unemployment. ACEVO Commission on Youth Unemployment (2012)
Young People and the Great Recession. Bell and Blanchflower (2011)
A Stalled Generation: Transitions to Adulthood in Scotland Today. Anderson, S & Dowling, S (2012)
Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan – Dec ONS (2014)

7. Many young people leave secondary school without achieving any Highers
Around 51,000 young people left school in 2011/12. When leaving school, just over half had attained a highest qualification which was at Higher (SCQF 6) or above.
Some groups of young people are more likely than others to leave school with lower levels of qualifications. These include looked after children, young people with disabilities and those from the most deprived backgrounds.
The risk of becoming unemployed is greater for those with the lowest qualifications. Four out of every 10 young people who attained a qualification at SCQF level 3 or below become unemployed on leaving school.
However, the number of young people leaving school with low qualifications (SCQF level 3 or below) is small. This means that only around one third of all unemployed school leavers have low qualifications.
Even though they are less likely to become unemployed, the much larger groups of school leavers attaining qualifications at SCQF level 4 and 5 account for around two thirds of all unemployed school leavers.
Highest qualification of all secondary school leavers , 2011/12
Source: Summary Statistics For Attainment, Leaver Destinations and Healthy Living No. 3, – Follow Up Destinations 2011/12. Scottish Government (2013)
Destinations of all secondary school leavers , 2011/12
Source: Summary Statistics For Attainment, Leaver Destinations and Healthy Living No. 3, – Follow Up Destinations 2011/12. Scottish Government (2013)

8. Young people can face difficulties when moving into the labour market
The current labour market is challenging for all job seekers with only 45 per cent of employers in Scotland recruiting in Only three out of every 10 employers recruited a young person.
The smallest firms (2-4 employees) are those least likely to recruit a young person (or to recruit at all) but, because they are the largest group of employers, they still account for around a quarter of all employers who did recruit a young person.
The two main reasons given by employers who did recruit but did not take on any young people were that the young people were not of sufficient quality or that no young people had applied.
The most commonly mentioned issues relating to the quality of young applicants were: a lack of work experience; a lack of skills; poor attitude and motivation; a lack of qualifications; and a poor quality application.
The way employers recruit also has an impact on young people looking for work. Informal recruitment methods, such as word of mouth, can disadvantage young people who may not have these networks in place or be able to access these networks through family or friends.
A 2013 survey looked specifically at the recruitment of education leavers, and found that 29 per cent of Scottish employers had recruited any education leaver. 17 per cent had recruited school leavers, 11 per cent had recruited college leavers, and 12 per cent had recruited higher education leavers.
The survey also found that 65 per cent considered school leavers to be prepared, rising to 78 per cent amongst those employing recruits from FE colleges and to 85 per cent for recruiters of Scottish HE graduates.
Proportion of employers in Scotland recruiting by size, 2012
Source: Employer Perspectives Survey UKCES (2013)
Number of employers in Scotland recruiting by size, 2012
Source: Employer Perspectives Survey UKCES (2013)
Other source: Employer Skills Survey UKCES (2014)

9. Modern Apprenticeships offer a route to sustainable employment
Modern Apprenticeship New Starts 2013/14 (No.)
In work 6 months after leaving MA 2012/13 (%)
In 2013/14 there were 25,284 Modern Apprenticeship (MA) new starts. Half of these (52 per cent) were aged 16-19, around one quarter (27 per cent) were aged and the remainder (21 per cent) were aged 25+.
The bulk of MAs were at Level 3 (59 per cent) and Level 2 (28 per cent). Only 3 per cent of MAs were at Level 4 and around 0.5 per cent were at Level 5.
The majority (80 per cent) of MAs in Scotland last for more than one year, more than half (58 per cent) last for more than 2 years.
In 2012/13, the most commonly undertaken MA frameworks by 16-19s were Business & Administration, Hospitality, Retail and Construction. For 20-24s, those most commonly undertaken were Hospitality, Health and Social Care, and Retail.
MAs offer a route to sustainable employment - in 2012/13 nearly all apprentices (86 per cent) were in work 6 months after leaving their apprenticeship. The likelihood of being in work after leaving a MA increases with the age of the apprentice and the level of the apprenticeship.
Source: Training Programmes statistics 2013/14 Skills Development Scotland (SDS) (2014)
Source: MA Outcomes Survey 2012/13, SDS (2013)*
Most commonly undertaken frameworks (volume of new starts) by age 2012/13
Source: Training Programme Statistics, 2012/13* SDS (2013)
*2013/14 data not yet available at time of writing

10. The majority of employers are not involved in apprenticeships, those that are report high satisfaction
Only 13 per cent of establishments in Scotland currently have or offer apprenticeships. Smaller employers are much less likely to have/offer apprenticeships than larger employers. However, in terms of the volume of employers involved, the smallest employers (2-4 employees) are the largest group.
There are two main reasons why employers in Scotland do not currently offer apprenticeships – they either actively choose not to (staff are already fully skilled or they prefer to recruit skilled staff) or they perceive a range of structural barriers which prevent them from doing so (apprenticeships are not offered for their industry, are not suitable for their business or they currently have a recruitment freeze).
Satisfaction of Scottish employers involved with MAs is high with 85 per cent reporting they were satisfied with the relevance of the training to their needs and 83 per cent stating they were satisfied with the quality of the training provided.
Many Scottish employers who offer MAs have been offering them for several years. Nearly three quarters have been offering them for more than three years and over a third for more than 10 years.
Over half (53 per cent) of Scottish employers who are involved with MAs said were vital to their business and a further 22 per cent viewed them as important.
Proportion of establishments in Scotland who have apprentices or currently offer an apprenticeship by size and sector
Source: UK Employer Perspective Survey UKCES (2013)
Establishments in Scotland who have apprentices or currently offer an apprenticeship by size
Other sources:
Modern Apprenticeship Employer Survey SDS (2013)
Source: UK Employer Perspective Survey UKCES (2013)

11. The transition story for young people varies
Most young people move into a ‘positive destination’ after leaving school. This includes continuing their education, starting work, training, undertaking voluntary work or an activity agreement. However, the underlying transition story is more complex.
Similar to young women, the majority of black and minority ethnic young people continue their education after leaving school. Just over half (53%) of all Non-white young people are in higher education 9 months after leaving school. Again, they tend to be concentrated into a limited range of subjects.
Girls are most likely to continue their education after leaving school - nearly 7 out of every 10 female school leavers go down this route (4 to higher education, 3 to further education). However, they tend to cluster into specific subject areas, reflecting the wider occupational segregation seen in the labour market.
Half of all young people with a declared or assessed disability are in further education 9 months after leaving school. However, by the time they are 26 they are four times as likely to be unemployed as their non-disabled peers. Those in work will be earning 11% less than others with the same level of qualification.
Looked after children are least likely to go into a positive destination after leaving school – one in three are unemployed 9 months after leaving school. Very few go into higher education. This is related to looked after children leaving school at a young age with low levels of qualifications.
Over half of male school leavers continue their education. They are more likely to go into work after leaving school than their female peers.
Destinations of all secondary school leavers by characteristic , 2011/12
Chart notes:
1 White includes White-Scottish, White-Other, White-Gypsy Traveller, White-Other British, White-Irish or White-Polish. All other known categories are classified as Non-White.
2 Data for Non-White young people in Activity Agreements is suppressed due to small numbers.
3 Disability is either declared or assessed.
1,2 3
Chart sources: Summary Statistics for Attainment, Leaver Destinations and Healthy Living No. 3, – Follow Up Destinations 2011/12. Scottish Government (2013)
Education Outcomes for Scotland’s Looked After Children, 2011/12. Scottish Government, (2013)
Other sources: Fulfilling Potential Slide Pack. Office for Disability Issues

12. Some countries have consistently low youth unemployment but the reasons are complex
Youth (15-24) Unemployment Rate – EU 28 and Scotland – February 2014 (non-seasonally adjusted)
International youth unemployment rates vary widely and the reasons for these differences are complex. These could include the education system, labour market institutions and the strength of the national economy.
In some countries, youth unemployment has remained low despite the global economic downturn. Countries such as Germany, Austria and the Netherlands have consistently had low youth unemployment over the last 5 years.
Other countries, such as Spain and Greece, have persistent and high levels of youth unemployment. This has been a feature of their labour market for some time.
Notes
1. Estimates for Scotland and UK from the LFS, Jan-Mar 2014 and covers those aged Rankings for Scotland and the UK are based on unrounded data. Data for other EU countries are from Eurostat.
2. * indicated data rolled over from most recently data available
3. UK includes Scotland
Source: Labour Market Briefing – May Scottish Government (2014)
Other sources:
International Lessons: Youth Unemployment in the Global Context. The Work Foundation (2013)

13. International Best Practice
The best performing European countries in terms of youth unemployment have 2 things in common:
A highly regarded vocational education system which starts in secondary school and allows for progression with a significant element of work-based learning; and
Significant employer involvement in the development and delivery of education.

14. Headline Findings Focus on university pathways in schools.
Careers advice starting too late to influence choices.
College system going through significant reform – creates opportunities.
Limited progression opportunities within MAs – opportunities to develop.
Limited employer engagement with education.
Poor parental understanding of options.
Work experience is of fundamental importance to young people and employers but is generally very formulaic.
Some groups of young people are at greater risk of employment than others.
Majority of young people leaving school with only limited preparation for what comes next.

15. Headline Recommendations
Earlier range of career education opportunities to a national standard
New approach to work experience
Senior phase vocational pathways delivered in partnership between schools and colleges
Expansion of Modern Apprenticeships at the higher levels
Regional Invest in Youth Groups
Focus on small employers and young people facing barriers within recruitment incentives
Sustained focus on addressing equalities issues
Focus on Key Performance Indicators

16. Government Response Developing the Young Workforce Programme 2014-2021
Our vision: To develop Scotland’s young workforce by providing young people with learning which is directly relevant to getting a job, benefiting individuals and improving the economy through increased youth employment

17. Responding to ambitious recommendations
Fundamental cultural change (parents, young people, schools, employers) + accompanying further development of supporting policy = system change
Changing the way we support at least half of all young people into employment.
Covers a range of Ministerial portfolios

18. Government response – changing the system through a seven year programme
Short term: business shaping apprenticeships ; new invest in youth accolades; employability features in school inspections; Medium term: senior phase pathways introduced for learners; roll out of high level apprenticeships; Longer term: learners benefiting from these opportunities will enter labour market from end of academic year 2016/17 and beyond.

19. Engaging those intended to benefit
Parents and teachers – need to feel confident that Highers and university aren’t the only route to success and that the pursuit of vocational qualifications do not limit aspirations; need to be informed about the variety of options on offer.
Young people – need to consider different options with a clear view about their job prospects.
Employers – need to recruit younger people and take on a role in education and training.
But none of these groups can be brigaded easily.
We need to influence their thinking through innovative engagement, at both a national and regional level.

20. Governance Structure Equalities Change Themes Schools Colleges
National Advisory Group
Political and senior stakeholder leadership
Programme Board
A system underpinned by industry engagement
A college system fully focussed on employability and responding to industry’s skills needs at the regional and national levels
Apprenticeship opportunities for young people to achieve a flexible set of qualifications up to and including degree level while in work.
Clearer vocational pathways, starting in the senior phase which lead to industry recognised qualifications
A more intensive, industry influenced focus on employability within the CfE broad general education
Schools
Colleges
Change Themes
PB membership
Linda McKay (ex-Principal, Forth Valley College; Wood Commissioner)
Christine Pollock (ex-Director of Education North Lanarkshire, Wood Commissioner)
Sylvia Halkerson (SFC/SDS Joint Skills Committee, Wood Commissioner)
Fiona Robertson (SG Director of Learning)
Mhairi Laughlin (Principal, West Lothian College)
Terry Lanagan (Director of Education West Dunbartonshire, CfE Management Board)
Carol Henry (HR Director, Arnold Clark)
Paul McKelvie (Board member SDS and SFC)
Ken Milroy (Regional College Chair, Aberdeen & Aberdeenshire)
Mike Callaghan (COSLA)
Career education in schools;
Careers advice;
Teacher Education.
Regional & Local structured creation of senior phase vocational pathways;
Interventions to support re-engagement;
Measuring attainment across academic and vocational routes.
Focusing college outcome agreements;
Higher level skills/STEM;
Employment services.
Higher level MAs targeted on economic growth;
STEM ring-fence;
Access to apprenticeships;
Pre-apprenticeship training.
Education Scotland focus on industry;
Skills planning;
Employer contribution.
Equalities

21. The right elements for change
A clear vision
A defined set of actions and measures
An approach of building on existing assets with renewed focus and some additional resource
A disciplined Programme management approach
Implementation plans, set in context of refreshed youth employment strategy, published at the end of 2014
A means of sustaining the political will through the National Advisory Group
Vision
To develop Scotland’s young workforce by providing young people with learning which is directly relevant to getting a job, benefiting individuals and improving the economy through increased youth employment
The programme
A Senior Responsible Officer supported by a new Programme Board will take responsibility for delivery:
The Board will oversee progress on the development of all recommendations across five themes; it will use conventional programme management techniques which are good at dealing with inter-dependencies between stakeholders and projects; the techniques are similar to those deployed in existing Post 16 Reform;
Delivery bodies such as SDS, SFC, SQA, SCQF and Education Scotland will provide support to the individual projects with a focus on implementation.
Our management of change in localities and regions will be much more dynamic:
Our framework of improvement will be developed in accordance with the needs of schools and regional colleges;
aspects that need significant local testing will use techniques (adapted from the Early Years Collaborative) involving front-line staff;
Will engage senior local authority officers;
this will become the basis of a strategy to engage and empower the workforce;

22. Key Documents Commission report Implementation plan
Implementation plan

23. Questions?