1. 1D What Happened? Winner's strategy Optimal individual strategy Optimal group strategy Resource behavior Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

2. 2D Summary of Company Performance Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 6 Company Ships Assets 2 3 4 5 Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows 11/111014/301022/10022/-40022/-1100 10/239013/467018/82018/-66018/-1170 17/10017/426017/3230 17/3220 17/3100 10/1060 17/194024/-265024/-598024/-7470 24/-173032/483044/-424044/-1083044/-14200 5/1000 7/1500 10/790 8/800 12/90 Total Grand 4400 3330 7350 -1470 -3200

3. 3D Summary of Game Behavior 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 FISHCATCHSHIPS Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

4. 4D Typical Game Behavior Fish Catch Ships 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 YEAR Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

5. 5D Typical Game Behavior – Fleet Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

6. 6D Typical Game Behavior – Catch Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

7. 7D Typical Game Behavior – Fish Population Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

8. 8D Aggressive Strategies “Purchase many boats until average fish productivity starts to decline. When fish productivity goes down, fish other areas.” “Increase fleet size as long as yields are stable.” “We will continue to add at least 1 ship per year. We will fish in both the deep sea and coast depending on fish supplies…” “We have acted on an impulse that things will be good for a few more years. Probably will keep our fleet at or around this size [16 boats].” Comments from students at the University of New Hampshire. Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

9. 9D Conservative Strategies “We want to keep our fleet at this constant level and disperse it so as not to deplete fish resources in the deep sea and coast. “ “Buy conservatively, out of necessity, and keep our bank balance positive.“ “Obtain a stable fleet size [and] move fleet around to follow fish population densities. Sell off some of fleet as time goes on.” Comments from students at the University of New Hampshire. Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

10. 10D Does fish depletion happen in real life? Pacific Sardine Peruvian Anchovy North Sea Herring Atlantic Swordfish Atlantic Cod Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

11. 11D Pacific Sardine Catch Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

12. 12D Peruvian Herring, Anchovy and Sardine Catch Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

13. 13D North Sea Herring Catch Source: Nichols, John. “Saving North Sea Herring.” Fishing News February 1999. Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

14. 14D Atlantic Swordfish Catch Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

15. 15D Atlantic Cod Catch Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

16. 16D Principal Global Oceanic Fisheries Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

17. 17D Total World Fish Catch Source: Fisheries of the United States, US Dept. of Commerce, 2000. Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

18. 18D How The World’s Fish Are Caught Source: “World Fisheries in Crisis.” Environmental News Network July 10, 1998. Currently there are some 13 million fishers in the world. Twelve million use simple traditional technologies to land about half the world’s fish catch. The remaining one million fishers crew 37,000 industrial fishing vessels and account for the other half of the fish caught. These fishers deploy highly sophisticated contrivances ranging from sonar and spotting planes to fishing nets large enough to swallow twelve 747 jumbo jets. Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

19. 19D The World’s Fisheries – Anarchy Source: “World Fisheries in Crisis.” Environmental News Network July 10, 1998. “The emerging anarchy in the oceans” is how one United Nations official describes the situation on the high seas. With so many vessels scouring increasingly fished-out waters, squabbles are inevitable. Russians attack Japanese vessels in the Northwest Pacific. Scottish fishers attack a Russian trawler. A Falkland Islands patrol chases a Taiwanese squid boat more than 4,000 miles. Norwegian patrols cut the nets of three Icelandic ships in the Arctic, and shots are exchanged. Philippine patrols arrest Chinese fishers near the hotly contested Spratly Islands in the south China Sea. The list of confrontations is ever-expanding. Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

20. 20D Global Fisheries Depletion Region Northwest Atlantic Northeast Atlantic Southeast Atlantic Northwest Pacific Northeast Pacific Southeast Pacific Total Species Cod Haddock Capelin Herring Pilchard Salmon Halibut Perch King Crab Anchoveta Potential 1,350 100 500 300 2,250 600 350 38 210 40 9-11,000 16,738 1994 Catch 48 7 2 243 1,643 210 367 32 26 5 11,897 14,480 Loss 1,302 93 498 57 607 390 -17 6 184 35 - 897 2,258 Source: The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture. United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, 1999. Thousands of Tons Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

21. 21D International Fisheries Management The relative failure of international management to establish sustainable fisheries in many areas, despite the high quality of the research base sometimes provided, is clearly demonstrated by the dwindling resources, excessive catching capacity, uncontrolled transfers of fishing effort between resources and oceans, and depletion of many highly valuable resources...The fact that uncontrolled development of fishing effort leads to disaster has now been widely acknowledged in the scientific literature, and by high level fisheries management and development authorities. Source: Roodard. Review of the State of World Fishery Resources. Agriculture of the United Nations. Rome 1990. Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

22. 22D Where else does depletion occur? Groundwater Forests Soil Game Animals Ozone Other Renewable Resources Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

23. 23D The Fisheries System Principal interactions -Fish/Regeneration -Fish/Catch -Catch/Investment/Ships Other influences -Auction -Environment -Price Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

24. 24D The Fisheries System: Fish Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

25. 25D The Fisheries System: Catch Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

26. 26D The Fisheries System: Investment +,- Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

27. 27D The Fisheries System Structure +,- Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

28. 28D What else affects the fisheries system? Foreign competition Technology Regulation Pollution Weather (El Nino) Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

29. 29D Impact of Technology on Ship Effectiveness Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

30. 30D Is there anything wrong with depletion? Present value of the fishery Local vs. global strategies Impacts on linked ecosystems Equity of resource distribution Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

31. 31D Dietary Importance of Fish Source: Fisheries at the Limit. 1993. In all, marine and inland fisheries provide nearly 30 percent of Asia’s animal protein, in Africa the proportion is 21 percent, in Latin America 8 percent. Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

32. 32D What can be done? Partition the seas Establish quotas Farm fish Move down food chain Change consumption preferences Reduce destruction and pollution of fisheries Limit ship fleets, technology Develop better methods for stock assessment Change social values and economic incentives Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

33. 33D Alternative Catch Policies - - - - Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows