1. The Campaign Process Chapter 13 American Government
2006 Edition
(to accompany Comprehensive, Alternate, Texas, and Essentials Editions)
O’Connor and Sabato
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2. Purposes of Elections Regular free elections
guarantee mass political action
enable citizens to influence the actions of their government
Popular election confers on a government the legitimacy that it can achieve no other way.
Regular elections also ensure that government is accountable to the people it serves.
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3. Purposes of Elections Electorate Mandate: Citizens eligible to vote
A command, indicated by an electorate’s voters, for the elected officials to carry out their platforms.
Sometimes the claim of a mandate is suspect because voters are not so much endorsing one candidate as rejecting the other.
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4. Purposes of Elections Retrospective judgment Prospective judgment
A voter’s evaluation of the performance of the party in power
Prospective judgment
A voter’s evaluation of a candidate based on what he or she pledges to do about an issue if elected
Three requirements for prospective voting:
Voters must have an opinion on an issue
Voters must have an idea of what action, if any, the government is taking on the issue
Voters must see a difference between the two parties on the issue.
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5. Kinds of Elections Primary Elections:
Election in which voters decide which of the candidates within a party will represent the party in the general election.
Closed primary: a primary election in which only a party’s registered voters are eligible to vote.
Open primary: a primary in which party members, independents, and sometimes members of the other party are allowed to vote.
Crossover voting: participation in the primary of a party with which the voter is not affiliated.
Raiding: An organized attempt by voters of one party to influence the primary results of the other party.
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6. General Elections
General elections are those in which voters decide which candidates will actually fill elective public offices.
In presidential elections voters look for:
Leadership and character.
Base their judgments on foreign policy and defense issues that do not arise in state and local elections.
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7. Initiative, Referendum, and Recall
An election that allows citizens to propose legislation and submit it to the state electorate for popular vote
24 states and D.C. use the initiative
Referendum
An election whereby the state legislature submits proposed legislation to the state’s voters for approval
Recall
Voters can remove an incumbent from office by popular vote.
Are very rare
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8. Presidential Elections
Primary elections or caucuses are used to elect national convention delegates which choose the nominee.
Winner-take-all primary
Proportional representation primary
Proportional representation with bonus delegates primary; beauty contest with separate delegate selection; delegate selection with no beauty contest
Caucus
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9. Primaries v. Caucuses
Over years, trend has been to use primaries rather than caucuses to choose delegates.
Caucus is the oldest, most party-oriented method of choosing delegates to the national conventions.
Arguments for primaries
More democratic
More representative
A rigorous test for the candidate
Arguments for caucuses
Caucus participants more informed; more interactive and informative
Frontloading (being first) gives some primary states an advantage
Frontloading is the tendency to choose an early date on the primary schedule
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10. The Party Conventions
Out-of-power party holds its convention first, in late July, followed in mid-August by party holding the presidency.
Conventions were decision-making body in the 19th century.
Today the convention is fundamentally different. Nominations settled well in advance of the convention.
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11. Historic Moments for Women at the Conventions
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12. National Convention: Delegate Selections
Unit Rule
A traditional party practice under which the majority of a state delegation can fore the minority to vote for its candidate
Abolished by the Democrats
New Democratic party rule decrees that state’s delegates be chosen in proportion to the voters cast in its primary or caucus. (30% of votes = 30% delegates from that state) – proportional allocation
Superdelegates
Delegate slot to the Democratic Party’s national convention that is reserved for an elected party official
Some rules originating in Democratic Party have been enacted as state laws thus applying them to the Republican Party as well.
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13. National Convention: National Candidates and Issues
Political perceptions and loyalties of voters are not influenced largely by national candidates and issues.
Diminished the power of state and local party leaders at the convention.
Issues are more important to the new, issue-oriented party activists than to the party professionals.
Party professionals no longer have monopoly on managing party affairs.
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14. National Conventions: The News Media
Changing nature of coverage
No prime time coverage on some days
Extending coverage on the final day of each convention
Reflects change in political culture
More interest in the candidates themselves
Convention still generates much coverage for the party
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15. The National Convention: Who are the Delegates?
Parties draw delegates from an elite group
Higher income and educational levels
Differences between parties
40% Democratic delegates were minorities; 50% women (1980 rule requires half state delegation be female)
Only 17% Republican delegates were minorities. Up from 9% in 2000.
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16. Figure 13.1
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17. The Electoral College
Representatives of each state who cast the final ballots that actually elect a president
Total number of electors for each state equal to the number of senators and representatives that a state has in the U.S. Congress
District of Columbia is given 3 electoral votes.
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18. Figure 13.2
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19. The Electoral College Result of compromise
Selection by Congress versus direct popular election
Three essentials to understanding the design of the Electoral College:
Constructed to work without political parties.
Constructed to cover both the nominating and electing phases of presidential selection.
Constructed to produce a nonpartisan president.
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20. The Electoral College in the 19th Century
12th Amendment (1804)
Attempt to remedy the confusion between the selection of vice presidents and presidents that emerged in the election 1800
Provided for separate elections for each office, with each elector having only one vote to cast for each
In event of a tie, the election still went to the House.
Top three candidates go to House. Each state House delegation casts one vote.
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21. The Electoral College Today
Apportionment matters.
Representation of states in the Electoral College is altered every ten years to reflect population shifts.
Recent apportionment has favored the Republicans.
With the exception of California, George W. Bush carried all of the states that gained seats in 2000.
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22. The Electoral College: Three Major Reform Ideas
Abolition
Congressional District Plan
Keep the College, Abolish the Electors
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23. Patterns of Presidential Elections
Party Realignments
A shifting of party coalition groupings in the electorate that remains in place for several elections
Critical elections
An election that signals a party realignment through voter polarization
Six party realignments in U.S. history; three associated with tumultuous elections
1860
1890s
Secular Realignments
The gradual rearrangement of party coalitions, based more on demographic shifts than on shocks to the political system
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24. Electoral College Results for Three Realigning Presidential Contests
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25. Congressional Elections
Very different from presidential elections
Lesser known candidates, more difficulty getting media attention
Incumbency Advantage
When incumbents lose it is generally due to:
Redistricting
Gerrymandering
Scandals
Coattails
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26. Figure 13.4
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27. Results of Selected Elections, 2004
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28. Midterm Congressional Elections
Election takes place in the middle of a presidential term
President’s party usually loses seats in midterms
Tendency for voters to punish the president’s party more severely in the sixth year of an eight year presidency
Retrospective voting
Senate elections less inclined to the 6th year itch
2002 midterm elections were an exception
Bush picked up seats in the House and Senate
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29. Voting Behavior Patterns in Voter Turnout
Turnout: the proportion of the voting-age public that votes
40% of the eligible adult population votes
25% are occasional voters
Voters tend to be more educated
More voters have higher incomes
Younger people vote less
Whites vote more regularly than African Americans – related to income and educational differences in the two groups
Hispanics vote less than African Americans
Have potential to wield much influence given their increasing size
Those interested in politics vote more
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30. The South Versus the Non-South for Presidential Voter Turnout
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31. Why Is Voter Turnout So Low?
Too Busy
Difficulty of Registration
Difficulty of Absentee Voting
Number of Elections
Voter Attitudes
Weak Political Parties
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32. Why People Don’t Vote
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33. How Can the United States Improve Voter Turnout?
Easier Registration and Absentee Voting
Make Election Day a Holiday
Strengthen Parties
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34. How America Votes
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35. Does Low Turnout Matter?
Some argue it is a not a critical problem
Based on belief that preferences of nonvoters are not much different from those who do vote
So…results would be the same regardless
Nonvoting is voluntary
Nonvoting driven by acceptance of the status quo
Others believe it is a problem
Voters do not represent nonvoters
Social make-up and attitudes of nonvoters today are significantly different from those of voters
Tend to be low income, younger, blue collar, less educated and more heavily minority
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36. Patterns in Vote Choice
Race and Ethnicity
Whites tend to vote Republican
African Americans vote overwhelmingly for Democrats
Hispanics also tend to identify with and vote for Democrats
Kerry 53 percent; Bush 44 percent
Women today more likely to support Democratic candidates
Poor vote less often and more for Democrats
Well-to-do vote more often and for Republicans
Ideology related closely to vote choice
Conservatives for Republicans
Liberals for Democrats
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37. Ticket-Splitting
Voting for candidates of different parties for various offices in the same election
From 1960 to 1992 almost 40% of states holding simultaneous presidential and gubernatorial elections recorded split results.
1992 and 1996 went to average of 26% split ticket voting
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38. Reforming the Electoral Process
Focus on the Electoral College
Other areas
Nomination
Regional primaries
Campaign Finance
Internet Voting
Standardizing Recounts
Ballot Reform
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