1. Patterns of Violent Crime in Russia Natalia S. Gavrilova Leonid A. Gavrilov Victoria G. Semyonova Galina N. Evdokushkina Alla E. Ivanova Center on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago Central Research Public Health Institute, Moscow, Russia

2. List of Violent Crimes Intentional Murder Assault (simple and aggravated) Intentional Bodily Harm (light, medium, serious) in Russian Criminal Code Rape/Sexual assault Robbery (simple and aggravated) ‘Grabezh’ and ‘Razboy’ in Russian Criminal Code

3. Data Resources on Violent Crime Statistics of violent crimes registered by police (collected by the Russian Ministry of Interiors). Also submitted to the UN World Crime Surveys. Statistics of arrestees collected by police. Statistics of homicide mortality collected by Goskomstat. Submitted to the WHO. Surveys of prison inmates. Victimization surveys. International Crime Victimization Surveys (conducted in Moscow).

4. Trends of Intentional Murders in Russia and the United States Data from the UN World Crime Surveys

5. Trends of Reported Rapes in Russia and the United States Data from the UN World Crime Surveys

6. Trends of Reported Robberies in Russia and the United States Data from the UN World Crime Surveys

7. Crime Reporting (%) in Russia and the United States Data from the International Crime Victimization Survey

8. Annual Victimization Rates (%) in Five Countries in 1996

9. Annual Victimization Rates (%) for Non-Fatal Crimes in Moscow.

10. Mean Age of Offenders in Prisons Data from the 1999 Survey of Penal Population

11. Trends in Homicide Rates for Young and Middle-Aged Adults Data from Russian Vital Statistics MalesFemales

12. Trends in Homicide Male-Female Ratio for Young and Middle-Aged Adults in Russia

13. Age Profile of Male Homicide Mortality in Russia

14. Age Profile of Female Homicide Mortality in Russia

15. Number of Serious Crimes in 1995 per 10,000 Population Data from the WebAtlas Project (http://sci.aha.ru/ATL)

16. Proportion of Sexual Crimes in All Serious Crimes in 1995 Data from the WebAtlas Project (http://sci.aha.ru/ATL)

17. Top Five Causes of Male External Mortality in 2001 RussiaMoscow SuicideAccidental Falls (!?) Undetermined Injury HomicideAll Other Accidental Causes Accidental Poisoning by Alcohol Homicide All Other Accidental Causes Suicide

18. Age Profiles of Mortality from Accidental Poisoning by Alcohol Data from Russian Vital Statistics MalesFemales

19. We Need a Multivariate Analysis of Violent Crime Pridemore W.A. (2000). Social Structure and Homicide in Post-Soviet Russia. A Dissertation. School of Criminal Justice, SUNY, Albany, NY. Andrienko Y. (2001). Understanding the crime growth in Russia during the transition period: A criminometric approach. HSE Economic Journal, 5(2): 194-220. Fajnzylber P., Lederman D., Loayza N. (2002). What causes violent crime? European Economic Review, 46: 1323-1357.

20. Factors Related to Homicide Dynamics in Russia According to the Study by Andrienko, 2001 Positively Related Factors: Criminal experience (one-year lag of homicide rate) Percentage of Youth Alcohol Consumption Income inequality (Gini coefficient), Consumption of Illicit Drugs Geographical Lattitude and Longitude Negatively Related Factors: Education Police Efficiency (Police Clearance Rate) Unemployment (!?), Real Income, Net Nuptiality

21. Conclusions (I) The rates of violent crimes increased during the transition period in Russia (perhaps with the exception of rapes). Homicide has became the top cause of external mortality for women in Russia. Patterns of violent crime in Russia are strongly affected by age and sex. Homicide risk is the highest at middle ages – 30-55 years. The use of aggregated indices, which ignore age and sex structure could be misleading. Both homicide victims and offenders are on average older in Russia than in the United States.

22. Conclusions (II) Regional pattern of homicide mortality shows West-East and South-North (European part of Russia) gradient of homicide mortality. Alcohol is still an important factor of violent crime and homicide in particular. However, the role of alcohol as a factor of violent crime is declining. Economic and structural changes during the transition period (increase in poverty and income inequality, decline in GDP) appears to be important factors of violent crime and will largely determine the future direction of violent crime in Russia. However these trends may be partially alleviated by population aging.