1. National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 22 July 2014

2. Outline Welcome –Eric Reutebuch, AU Water Resources Center Current drought status – David Zierden, Florida Climate Center, FSU Streamflows and groundwater – Brian McCallum, USGS Seasonal forecasts and outlooks – David Zierden, FSU Streamflow forecasts – Jeff Dobur, SERFC Summary and Discussion

3. Current drought status

4. Return of the “Polar Vortex”!

5. 7-day Rainfall Totals

6. Lawn and Garden Moisture Index

7. 30-Day Rainfall

8. 90-day Rainfall Departures

10. Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Current: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Previous Brief: Brian McCallum

11. Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Current: Previous brief:

12. Lake Lanier Inflows http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600) Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500)

13. Current Streamflows http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Chattahoochee at Atlanta (02336000) Chattahoochee near Whitesburg (02338000)

14. Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500) Chattahoochee near Columbus (02341505) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

15. Current Streamflows Flint River near Griffin (02344500) Flint River near Carsonville (02347500) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

16. Current Streamflows Flint River at Albany (02352500) Flint at Bainbridge (02356000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

17. Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

18. Groundwater Conditions http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov Previous briefCurrent brief

19. Groundwater Status Miller County, GA (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

21. 7-Day Precipitation Forecast http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml David Zierden

22. Tropics Heating Up

23. 7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies

24. Nino Indices

25. Winds Over the Pacific

26. Subsurface Temperatures Late AprilCurrent

27. ENSO forecast from CPC/IRI

28. 1-3 Month Precipitation Outlook 1 Month 3 Month

30. Hurricane Formation Regions

31. Summer Rainfall Climatology

32. U.S. Drought Outlook

34. Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg West Point Columbus WF George Columbus Woodruff Blountstown Lovejoy Carsonville Albany Jeff Dobur

36. Summary-David Zierden Abnormal? dryness (not drought) creeping in to the Southeast and ACF Basin Lawn and Garden index shows moist conditions in Florida, mixed in Alabama and Georgia Overall, the upper and middle ACF basin has seen near normal rainfall at 90 days

37. Summary-Brian McCallum Realtime streamflows are in the normal range generally, but drop towards below normal conditions as you move downstream. Inflows into Lake Lanier continue in normal range. Streamflows are at below normal conditions throughout the Flint River basin. Groundwater levels are at above normal levels in South Georgia

38. Summary-David Zierden Development of El Nino likely? (75%) in the next 1-3 months, likely strength looking less and less El Nino a primary reason for below normal hurricane forecast One-month CPC outlook calls for equal chances, wetter in the Southwest. Not verifying well… Climatologically can expect 5-6” in July, but only 3-5” in August. More for the coastal areas.

39. Summary-Jeff Dobur 1 Month Streamflow forecast - Near Normal 3 Month Streamflow forecast – Near Normal Not much change from previous forecast

40. References Speakers David Zierden, FSU Brian McCallum, USGS Jeff Dobur, SERFC Moderator Eric Reutebuch, AU WRC Additional information General drought information http://drought.gov http://www.drought.unl.edu General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/ http://agroclimate.org/climate/ Streamflow monitoring & forecasting http://waterwatch.usgs.gov http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/ Groundwater monitoring http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

41. Thank you! Next briefing August 19, 2014, 1:00 pm EDT Moderator: Eric Reutebuch Slides from this briefing will be posted at http://drought.gov/drought/content/regional-programs/regional-drought-webinars Please send comments and suggestions to: reuteem@auburn.edu