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Published byDerek Preston Modified over 9 years ago
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Analysis of today’s used vehicle market Bill Cieslak Vice President PHH Arval
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PHH proprietary information 2008 year in review Major market drivers Fuel prices Housing industry Overall economic challenges And most recently… funding
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PHH proprietary information Fuel prices impact the market Early ’08 thru mid year, fuel was the largest factor The worst performing month was June Truck prices declined significantly Mid-size sedans became more popular Compact and hybrid prices became over valued
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PHH proprietary information Housing industry impacts The dramatic decline in construction reduced truck values: Used fleets trucks are popular with contractors The quick decline in demand, combined with high fuel prices created an over supply of truck inventories New and used truck values were impacted Many Consumers abandoned their trucks for daily commutes
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PHH proprietary information Economic challenges Market impact from tight credit Consumers: Rate increases Less credit for sub prime Shorter payment terms Reduced credit lines for credit cards, home equity and auto loans Business: Increased cost to borrow Shortage of funding
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PHH proprietary information Trends in the car & truck market Information from Black Book (used with permission)
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Trucks and SUVs
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Entry & Mid-Size Cars
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$15,000 $16,000 $17,000 $18,000 $19,000 $20,000 $21,000 2006 Prius AVG Wholesale 4/1/2008 5/1/2008 8/1/20089/1/2008 10/1/2008 6/1/20087/1/2008
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* Limited to a single vehicle. -50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50% Full Size SUV Mid Size Car Mid & Full Size SUV Full Size Trucks Full Size Car Compact Car Crossover Vans* Full Size Car Sample of Two Manufacturers Build Level Change : 2008 to 2009
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-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0% Full-Size Pickup Luxury SUV Full-Size SUV Mid-Size Pickup Full-Size Car Compact Car Entry Level Car Near Luxury Car Upper-Mid Size Car Mini Van Best Worse * Comparing 2008 and 2009 Available New Car 36-Month Residuals as of Sept. (112 vehicles total)
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New Car Residual Winners +4.5% +5.5% +5.8% +6.0% +6.5% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Ford Focus Scion xD Buick Enclave Chevrolet HHR Pontiac Vibe 20092008 Retention Value [%] -17.6% -15.5% -13.8% -12.3% -11.8% Cadillac Escalade Hummer H2 Nissan Armada GMC Yukon Jeep Commander Chevrolet Avalanche New Car Residual Losers 20092008 Retention Value [%] 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% * 36-Month
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MSRP Sep. 07 Dec. 07 Apr. 08 Oct. 08 Silverado Pickup : $5,310$6,200 $6,900 $6,400 $3400 3 Year Old Used Car Return New Beetle : $1,240 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1700 Jetta : $1,220 $2,000 $2,000 $1,500 $2000 E320 CDI : $1,000 $2,500 $3,200 $3,000 $3200 Liberty : $2,687 $2,200 $2,200 $2,200 $ 900 F250 6.0L : $5,100 $6,500 $6,900 $6,400 $3400 Dodge Ram : $5,955 $6,200 $6,900 $6,400 $3400 Diesel Fuel March 17, 2007 $2.68 / gal (U.S. Nat. Avg) March 17, 2008 $3.80 / gal +$1.30 / gal
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3 Year Old Used Car Return : Sept. 07 Dec. 07 Apr. 08 Oct. 09 Silverado Pickup : 117% 130% 120% 64% Dodge Ram : 104% 116% 107% 57% F250 6.0L : 127% 135% 125% 67% Liberty : 82% 82% 82% 33% Jetta : 164% 164% 164% 138% New Beetle : 121% 121% 121% 164% E320 CDI : 250% 320% 300% 320%
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Model Year Option - 2006 Small MSRP Small Avg Used Mid MSRP Mid Avg Used Large MSRP Large Avg Used Leather8634129754501091742 min/max695/1200200/500385/1600300/700800/1600300/1350 Option vs. MSRP Used Option vs. MSRP Used 2006 Models Sunroof74427510544041014494 min/max585/900200/400695/1900350/500795/1450450/600 Navigation15632002318338500 min/max940/1950200/2001800/2995200/600200/800 V6 over 4 Cyl167501235825 min/max1350/2000425/2000300/1800 V8 over V636004001239944 min/max2000/5200250/600945/2000300/1600
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Data Delivery » Web Services, XML & HTML Portal Applications » Xpress Portfolio/Inventory Analysis » API Solutions » Service Solutions » Database Solutions » Custom/Tailored Solutions » Client Server Applications Delivery Options
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PHH proprietary information Budgeting for fleet in tough economic times
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PHH proprietary information External cost factors Fuel costs Ordering and delivery Depreciation Maintenance and repairs Tire costs Accident costs Interest rates Vehicle prices
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PHH proprietary information Internal factors Fleet size Type of vehicle Mileage profile Replacement policy In service terms
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PHH proprietary information Preparing your 2009 budget Strategic planning Plan proactively for trucks Selector decisions – right vehicle for right job Downsizing of vehicles/alternate fuel vehicles Optimize fleet size Plan selector with resale in mind Re-evaluate lease terms for a challenged UVS market
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PHH proprietary information Other ideas: Fuel purchase policies Consider Personal Use chargeback National accounts for maintenance/repairs Consult with finance department on interest rates Budget for higher costs in 2009 Delay replacement of executive vehicles Preparing your 2009 budget
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PHH proprietary information Questions and Discussion?
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