1. USDA Commodity Analysis and the Guar Conundrum Allan Mustard and Santosh Singh December 6, 2013

2. Why Does Everyone Look to USDA? Reliable, credible, objective and unbiased Publications and data on-line and updated regularly FREE!

3. USDA has the most resources: Global Intelligence Network Trained Technical Personnel Sophisticated Technology Extensive Databases Timely Global Communication

4. Country/Commodity Balance Sheets SUPPLY = DEMAND Beginning Stocks Production ++ Imports = Exports + Domestic Use + Ending Stocks Private (On-farm) (Pipeline) Government (Security) (Public Distribution) Area Yield Commercial Concessional Feed / Residual FSI (Food) (Seed) (Industrial)

5. Input From Multiple Sources Private Market Reports Government Reports Travel Reports Official Country Reports World Weather Reports Attaché Reports Agribusiness Wire Services Private Commodity Reports International Organizations

6. Output Used Worldwide Secretary of Agriculture The Media USDA Agencies Academia U.S. and Foreign Agricultural Attachés State Agencies Farmers Farming Corporations Consultants Trade Associations Agribusiness Congress Finance and Brokers Other Governments Industry Cooperators

7. Guar (Gowar), Cyamopsis tetragonoloba India: Area Planted to Guar Bean, in thousand hectares, selected states of India State2011 Final2012 Estimate Rajasthan3,0943,100 Punjab n/a20 Gujarat125178 Haryana215341 TOTAL n/a3,639 Sources: Department of Agriculture of Rajasthan, Department of Agriculture of Punjab, Gujarat Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Department of Agriculture of Haryana, FAS Delhi estimates

8. India: Wheat Yields, in metric tons per hectare, 1997/98 – 2009/10 std err = 0.10

9. India: Guar Bean Area, Yield and Production, 1997-2009, selected states AreaYieldProduction (1,000 hectares)(kg/ha)(1,000 mt) 1997-98 2,301.2 418962.7 1998-99 1,922.1 254488.5 1999-00 2,933.9 128375.1 2000-01 3,497.4 188658.8 2001-02 2,903.1 3751,089.9 2002-03 974.1 208202.6 2003-04 2,854.0 5301,513.4 2004-05 2,867.4 315903.3 2005-06 2,955.5 3581,059.0 2006-07 3,343.7 3501,169.3 2007-08 3,471.6 5151,788.5 2008-09 3,862.5 5011,935.8 2009-10 2,989.6 198593.1 Standard deviation of yield133.39 Source: India Stats (www.indiastats.com)

10. India: Guar Yields, in metric tons per hectare, 1997/98 – 2009/10 R² = 0.1052 std err = 0.1318

11. High Yield Variation = High Unpredictability Unusually wide yield variance Unusually wide yield variance Large number of critical points Large number of critical points Relatively unresponsive to inputs Relatively unresponsive to inputs

12. agnewdelhi@fas.usda.gov http://www.fas.usda.gov http://gain.fas.usda.gov http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline