1. Alliance Trust PLC Global Economic Outlook Dr. Shona Dobbie Chief Economist 1 May 2014

3. US – fiscal position Source: Macrobond US federal government budget US federal debt vs GDP Outlays Receipts Nominal GDP Debt outstanding $ trillion

4. US – profits vs employee compensation Source: Macrobond Employee compensation (LHS) Corporate profits (RHS)

5. US – quantitative easing Source: Macrobond Federal reserve assets $ trillion

6. Emerging markets – currency moves vs US$ Source: Macrobond Turkey Russia Brazil Index Rebased end June 2013 = 100

7. Emerging markets – currency moves vs US$ Source: Macrobond Turkey Russia Index Rebased end June 2013 = 100 Brazil Ukraine

8. China – shadow banking Source: Macrobond Trust and Entrusted Loans Equity Financing Loans in Foreign Currencies Loans in Local Currency Corporate Bonds Net Financing Bank’s Acceptance Bills Yuan trillion

9. China – economic structure and growth Source: Macrobond Breakdown of GDPWorld bank urban population rates JapanUnited StatesUnited KingdomGermany China Fixed Investment Household consumption 47.5 42.5 37.5 32.5 19941998200220062010 Percent

10. Japan – ‘Abenomics’ Source: Macrobond Monetary baseYen and stock market Yen/Dollar (RHS) TOPIX (LHS) Index Yen Yen, trillion

11. Europe – unit labour costs Source: Macrobond Jan 2000 = 100End 2008 = 100 Ireland Spain Italy Germany Spain Ireland Italy Germany

12. Europe – inflation rates 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Percent Jan 2012Jan 2013Jan 2014 Spain Germany France Italy Source: Macrobond

13. UK – labour market recovery Source: Macrobond UK unemployment rateUK employment Self employed (RHS) Total (LHS)

14. UK – house price growth Source: Macrobond UK – Halifax house price indexNationwide house prices YoY growth MoM growth London Scotland

15. US – food prices Source: Macrobond Food price inflationMonthly food price moves Oranges Eggs Beef steaks Butter Citrus fruits Pork chops Eggs Butter

17. Important information Alliance Trust PLC is a self-managed investment company with investment trust status. It is one of the largest generalist UK investment trusts by market value on the London Stock Exchange. Alliance Trust Investments Limited and Alliance Trust Savings Limited are subsidiaries of Alliance Trust PLC. The Economic Research Centre is part of Alliance Trust and was formed to carry out economic and social analysis to deepen our understanding of economies, markets and socio-economic issues. The views, statements, opinions, information and data contained in this publication are those of the Alliance Trust Economic Research Centre, these views may change as subsequent conditions vary. Information used in this publication has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable but it has not been independently verified: no representation has been made to its accuracy or completeness, no reliance should be placed on it and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. This publication should not be used or considered as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument and is for information purposes only. This publication is not a financial promotion or recommendation to make any particular investment. Alliance Trust PLC, Alliance Trust investments Limited and Alliance Trust Savings Limited are not authorised to give financial advice.