1. Homicide Prediction Robert Dobynes Ken Lynch Misty Schutzius Danelle Tate

2. Our Prediction  Expected number of Homicides in the City of St. Louis  103  Expected number of homicides in District 5  18  Expected number of homicides in District 6  33

3. Our Forecast

4. Forecasted Crimes per Capita (10,000) District200920102011201220132014 11.361.682.03 2.202.47 20.320.700.35 0.180.19 32.261.952.922.542.342.63 45.184.344.832.903.873.01 517.7822.9213.0213.8018.4114.82 66.7010.817.508.909.189.54 78.136.584.71 5.033.41 89.358.608.004.936.174.40 92.142.090.602.100.900.82

5. Estimated 2014 Population 2014 302632 56,289 53,868 48,723 19,671 12,407 34,197 30,263 15,434 31,776 Homicides 14 1 13 6 18 33 10 7 3 Total 104

6. Old 9 Districts

7. New 6 Districts The key areas of District 5 are now part of District 6

8. Areas to Watch: District 6

9. Areas to Watch: District 6 – Neighborhood 74 - Baden  Baden median real estate prices are $58,583, which is less expensive than 93.0% of Missouri neighborhoods and 95.4% of all U.S. neighborhoods.  Most of the residential real estate is renter occupied.  Rents here are currently lower in price then 48.9% of Missouri neighborhoods.  Vacant apartments or homes are a major fact of life in Baden.  The current real estate vacancy rate here is 24.1%.  This is higher than the rate of vacancies in 90.0% of all U.S. neighborhoods.

10. Areas to Watch: District 6 – Neighborhood 74 - Baden  There are more incarcerated people living here than 99.4% of neighborhoods in the U.S.  3.9% of adults here having earned a bachelor's degree.  This is a lower rate of college graduates found in 96.9% of America's neighborhoods.  The Baden neighborhood has an income lower than 93.5% of U.S. neighborhoods.  With 54.9% of the children here below the federal poverty line.  This neighborhood has a higher rate of childhood poverty than 93.3% of U.S. neighborhoods.

11. Areas to Watch: District 6 – Neighborhood 74 - Baden  Median household income in 2011: Baden:$29,554 - Missouri: $45,247  Average household size: Baden:2.4 people - Missouri: 2.5 people  Percentage of single-mother households (among all households): Baden:25.2% -Missouri: 9.8%  Percentage of population below poverty level: Baden:29.2% - Missouri:15.8%  Educational Attainment: Less than High School: Baden: 32.9% - Missouri: 12.4% High School or Equivalent: Baden: 16.9% - Missouri: 31.5%

12. Areas to Watch: District 5

13. Areas to Watch: District 5 – Neighborhood 59 – JeffVanDerLou  N Grand Blvd / Cass Ave median real estate prices are $54,216  This is less expensive than 95.7% of Missouri neighborhoods and 96.6% of all U.S. neighborhoods.  Most of the residential real estate is occupied by a mixture of owners and renters.  Average rental prices in N Grand Blvd / Cass Ave are currently $399, based on NeighborhoodScout's exclusive analysis.  Rents here are currently lower in price then 83.1% of Missouri neighborhoods.

14. Areas to Watch: District 5 – Neighborhood 59 – JeffVanDerLou  The current real estate vacancy rate here is 39.3%.  This is higher than the rate of vacancies in 97.2% of all U.S. neighborhoods  This neighborhood has an income lower than 83.1% of U.S. neighborhoods.  47.9% of the children here below the federal poverty line,  This neighborhood has a higher rate of childhood poverty than 89.6% of U.S. neighborhoods.  There are more people living in the N Grand Blvd / Cass Ave neighborhood employed as sales and service workers (39.9%) than almost any neighborhood in the country.

15. Areas to Watch: District 5 – Neighborhood 59 – JeffVanDerLou  19.9% of this neighborhood's households are run by single mothers, which is a higher concentration than in 97.0% of American neighborhoods.  The neighbors in the N Grand Blvd / Cass Ave neighborhood in St. Louis are lower-middle income, making it a below average income neighborhood.  Research showed strong statistical correlations among high rates of children living in single parent households and:  neighborhood crime - particularly violent crime  neighborhood poverty  the percentage of low weight births  rates of infant mortality

16. Areas to Watch: District 5 – Neighborhood 59 – JeffVanDerLou  Median household income in 2011: JeffVanderLou: $21,619 - Missouri: $45,247  Average household size: JeffVanderLou: 2.4 people - Missouri: 2.5 people  Percentage of population below poverty level: JeffVanderLou: 40.5% - Missouri:15.8%  Educational Attainment: Less than High School: JeffVanderLou: 38.0% - Missouri: 12.4% High School or Equivalent: JeffVanderLou: 13.1% - Missouri: 31.5%

17. Methods of Homicide Prevention  Hot Spot Policing  Drones  Cameras  Job Creation  Education