1. 1 ENERGY STRATEGY AND PROJECTS OF ENERGY COMMUNITY INTEREST Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in the Western Balkans 11- 13 February 2013, Ljubljana Violeta Kogalniceanu, ECS

2. 2 Overview of topics  Energy Strategy  Energy demand scenarios and investment needs  Regional infrastructure development  Criteria for identification of projects of Energy Community interest  Evaluation process

3. 3 Content of the Strategy

4. 4 Energy Community Strategy (1)  The Strategy - developed by a Task Force with a large representation basis, benefitting from the technical assistance sponsored by USAID  In two phases: Phase 1: A Strategy paper, endorsed by the MC in October 2012 Phase 2: Identification of Projects of Energy Community Interest (PECIs), and associated policy measures to promote these, October 2012 – October 2013 The strategy paper has set three important objectives:  Objective 1: Creating a Competitive Integrated Regional Energy Market  Objective 2: Attracting investments in the energy sector  Objective 3: Providing secure and sustainable energy supply to customers …. and a large number of actions to support these,

5. 5 Current energy situation and national trends (1) Brief overview of the energy sectors in the Energy Community - common features:  Small and fragmented markets with the exception of Ukraine  Dependent on domestic fossil fuel (coal/lignite) or imported gas and oil  Single source of gas imports  High potential for renewable energy, especially hydro, biomass, wind, solar  Power generation based on technologies from 60’ and 70’ – exceeding their life span, high reliability and environmental concerns  Urgent need for major retrofit, and new power plants

6. 6 Current situation and trends (2) Electricity domestic generation 2009 103.5 TWh 2009, WBs and Moldova,

7. 7 Current situation and trends (3) Electricity import/export balance in 2009 and forecasts for 2020 Net importers in 2020: Albania, Croatia, Moldova

8. 8 Current situation and trends (5) New (planned) installed capacity The forecasted new power generation capacity: 20 GW, between 2012 and 2020 (or 2021) in total, of which, in Ukraine approx 8.1 GW (2009-2020) This represents a total 30% increase, respectively 60.9% in WBs and Moldova This power needs transmission lines….

9. 9 Energy demand scenarios and investment costs The task force decided that a scenario analysis should be used, as a way to understand the regional energy outlook and potential value of a regional energy strategy. Three scenarios were selected: –‘Current trends’ – if current trends in development of the energy sector continue, what are the implications? –‘Minimal investment cost’ – what are the minimal costs required to ensure that there is adequate supply of electricity to meet demand?; this will be meeting the energy efficiency and RE energy targets only partially, and will not meet the Large Combustion Plants Directive –‘Low Emissions Development/Sustainability’ - if more aggressive promotion of EE and RE was pursued, what might be the implications?; under this scenario all targets will be met as well as the requirements of the Large Combustion Plants Directive

10. 10 Scenario analysis implications A few highlights: The scenario analysis demonstrates the potential for severe electricity shortages if current trends continue unabated. It also demonstrated a very large investment gap, with CP reported plans already at 28.8 billion Euros through 2020 (Western Balkans and Moldova) – it is even higher when considering the view point of other regional energy experts or when the analysis extends to include plant in the 2021 to 2030 timeframe. The scenarios indicate the potentially large investment needs required for the region to meet supply adequacy. Between 2012-2020, an estimated 39.1 billion Euros of investments are needed under the scenario that focuses on minimum supply adequacy. It is evident that there are projects of regional significance that can benefit from a coherent EnC energy strategy. –An EnC strategy supported by a framework for project support should help mobilize financing.

11. 11 Results for 2020, 2025, and 2030 (bln nominal euros) Scenarios and Key Results Unmet Demand (TWh) Total Annualized Investment Costs Annual Fuel and O&M Costs Total Annual Costs CO (Gt) Current Trends 15.1 36.1 63.5 0.51 0.94 1.27 4.12 5.11 6.93 4.63 6.05 8.20 203,948 231,875 267,477 Minimal Investment Costs 0 1.34 2.11 3.13 3.64 4.56 6.04 4.98 6.67 9.17 179,427 197,689 223,567 Low Emissions/ Sustainability 0 2.87 3.93 5.30 2.81 3.20 4.22 5.58 7.13 9.52 134,028 139,352 156,810

12. 12 Development of projects of Energy Community Interest - PECI (1) Power generation:  New generation capacities (including adding new units to existing facilities)  Modernization, retrofitting of existing power plants, allowing for more efficient and environmentally safe production Electricity transmission:  High-voltage lines: OHL and underground and submarine transmission cables  Electricity storage facilities  Smart meters and ancillary equipment  Equipment for the safe, secure and efficient operation of the system Gas transmission:  Gas transmission pipelines (bi-directional capacity)  Underground storage facilities  LNG and CNG terminals  Equipment for the safe, secure and efficient operation of the system Oil:  Refinery improvements for facilitating improved fuel quality  Storage facilities to contribute to the security stockholding obligations  Pipelines used to transport crude oil

13. 13 PECI (2)  Going forward into the next phase, it is important to focus on identifying those projects of regional importance that would benefit from additional interventions such as:  Policy and regulatory instruments  Technical assistance  Financing mechanisms.  This is NOT intended to replace or override each CP’s own strategy or project development priorities, but is focused on projects of regional significance that would benefit from additional support. This is the challenge for this second phase of work.

14. 14 Policy and regulatory measures Financial mechanisms Policy and regulatory measures Financial mechanisms PHLG/MC agree on Energy Community PECI; policy measures adopted Basis for PECI candi- dates & data/ CBA October - December 2012 February 2013 May 2013 October 2013 January 2013 PECI identification process.....

15. 15 Energy, RE, Environment Objectives PECIs selection criteria (1) Criteria categories  Contribution to the implementation of Regional Energy Strategy’s objectives Min. 2 CPs, or a CP and an EU MS Cross-border infrastructure (electricity, gas, oil) Significant cross-border impact  Contribution to regional market integration, and enhanced competition Enhancement of cross-border capacity (in both directions) New links between markets Reduction of market concentration and facilitating access for new market entrants  Security of supply Diversification of supply sources, supplying counterparts and routes (mainly for gas), Lowest cost of available resources, while taking into account all externalities (mainly for generation projects)

16. 16 Energy, RE, Environment Objectives PECIs selection criteria (2)  Contribution to sustainable energy development Development of renewable energy sources Replacing old and low efficient technologies Facilitation of reaching national carbon targets and reducing GHG emissions Improving efficiency in primary energy transformation and in energy use  Contribution to economic development Economic, social and environmental viability Socio-economic benefit  Maturity of the project Progress in realisation (feasibility study, EIA, FID, permits and licenses) Length of project realisation Support from governments / local communities Experience of project promoter. To conclude:  All projects in each category will be assessed and evaluated against the same criteria, and indicators and they will be ranked accordingly  The final PECI list will be agreed based on the highest scores, by the PHLG/MC and a package of measures will accompany these in order to support their implementation.

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