1. WG 2 meeting - June 24, 2005, Brno. Household Car Ownership in Different Countries: A Cohort Analysis Akli Berri INRETS-DEST

2. Car ownership behaviour in countries (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, UK, USA and Japan) with different  economic and cultural contexts  histories as to the development of car ownership (e.g., USA vs. Western Europe)  economic development levels and market conditions (e.g., Poland vs. remaining countries) A basis for long term projections of car fleets (accounting for changes in behaviour and in population level and age structure)

3. Projected pattern of the age structure of the Dutch household population: 1995-2020

4. Car ownership patterns by birth cohort - France (1980, 1985, 1990 & 1995) Sources : Household Conjuncture Surveys (Insee) and, for 1995, Parc-Auto Panel (Sofrès).

5. An Age-Cohort-Period model (1) Three linked dimensions of time:  age as an indicator of the stage in life cycle (change in needs and ability with age, family size and composition, working members, etc)  cohort (based on birth year), with a common life experience, to account for differentiated access to the car (social diffusion, driving licence, etc)  time period reflecting the impact of the current socio- economic context (incomes, prices, supply, etc)

6. An Age-Cohort-Period model (2) The model:  “reference generation”: 1936-40

7. Household level or pre-aggregated data National Household surveys  France: 1977-94 (Conjuncture Surveys )  Germany: 1983, 1988, 1993  Italy: 1985-94, 1996  Netherlands: 1985, 1990, 1995  Poland: 1987-90, 1992, 1994-96  Japan: 1979, 1984, 1989, 1994  UK: 1977-94  USA: 1980-81, 1984-85, 1987-89 Pseudo-panels: cohorts defined by birth period of household head

8. Car ownership by birth cohort - USA (1980, 1984 & 1989)

9. Car ownership by birth cohort - Japan (1979, 1984, 1989 & 1994)

10. Car ownership by birth cohort - Netherlands (1985, 1990 & 1995)

11. Car ownership by birth cohort - Poland (1987, 1992 & 1997)

12. Number of cars per household along the life cycle: Generation 1936-40

13. Generation gaps: cars per household at age 35-39

14. Effects of economic variables – Cars per household Elasticities in last observation period: 1996 for Italy and Poland, 1994 for France, Japan and UK, 1989 for USA (**) Estimate with a wrong sign.

15. Number of cars per household along the life cycle: Generation 1936-40 – Italian regions

16. Generation gaps: cars per household at age 35-39 Italian regions

17. Effects of economic variables – Cars per household Italian regions

18. Conclusions Differences between countries and regions may be explained by three main factors:  history of car ownership development: The US, where car diffusion started earlier than in the other countries (before World War II), is closer to saturation than the other countries: narrower generation gaps and weaker sensitivity to economic factors  level of economic development: Poland has the lowest car ownership levels, but these continue to grow and the differences between cohorts are not stabilizing. The effect of economic development is also evidenced in the case of Italian regions  population density: Japan and the Netherlands record lower car ownership levels than the other industrialized countries