1. Climate Change and Conflict Cindy L. Parker MD, MPH Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Dept. of Environmental Health Sciences Physicians for Social Responsibility

2. 2 Risk Factors for Conflict Competition for scarce resources –Population growth increases competition –  availability of food and water sources Migration –Crossing cultural or national borders –Environmental refugees Partial democracy Demographic & economic inequities Gender inequality, youth bulge Abundance of lootable resources

3. 3 The Resource Curse: Abundance as well as Scarcity Can Lead to Conflict Oil, timber, diamonds, gold, coltan Fungible, portable, lucrative Worth fighting over Funding the fighting

4. 4 Water Availability Now: 2.3 billion people live in water stressed areas 1.7 billion live in water scarce areas* By 2025: 3.5 billion people projected to live in water stressed areas 2.4 billion in water scarce areas * *UNEP **Burke et.al. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Sept. 2006 By 2100: With BAU climate change scenarios, nearly 1/3 of the world’s land surface may be at risk of extreme drought**

5. 5 Gleick’s typology of historical water conflicts: Control of Water Resources: water supplies or access are at the root of tensions Military Target: where water resources/systems are targets of military actions by nations or states Military Tool: water resources/systems used as a weapon during a military action Political Tool: water resources/systems themselves used for a political goal Terrorism: water resources/systems are targets or tools of violence or coercion by non-state actors Development Disputes: water resources/systems are a major source of contention/dispute in context of economic development www.pacinst.org

6. 6 Kenya: deforestation  less rain and more run-off  water scarcity  hundreds killed in inter-ethnic water wars Most water conflict has been intra-national

7. 7 How Climate Change Affects Environmental Resources Degradation of farm land erosion, nutrient depletion, compacting, salinization, loss to urbanization ↑ runoff rates Changed hydro cycles transpiration rates, soil moisture, precipitation patterns Erosion, silting More frequent droughts, floods Sea level rise Extreme weather events Infestation Reduced irrigation capacity Overuse, pollution of water supplies Coastal flooding, damage water, food Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999

8. 8 Environmental Scarcity and Conflict Population growth “Demand- induced scarcity” Unequal resource access “Structure- induced scarcity” Increased environmental scarcity Migration, expulsion Decreased economic productivity Weakened states Ethnic conflicts Coups d’état Deprivation conflicts Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999 ↓ water, food “Supply- induced scarcity”

9. 9 A Case Study: Gaza Supply-induced Scarcity: Almost all freshwater comes from groundwater Annual rainfall = 70 - 140 million cubic meters –60% of that becomes runoff to Mediterranean or is lost to evaporation –Only 40% left to recharge single freshwater aquifer – Aquifer is shallow, >90% is contaminated by sewage, agricultural runoff, and saltwater 50-60 million cubic meters = sustainable supply

10. 10 Consumption of Groundwater in Gaza Demand-induced scarcity: Consumption: 160 million m³/year –Sustainable supply: 50-60 million m³/year Population increases –~1.6 million people –Fertility rate 6%; population growth rate 3.78%

11. 11 Structural Scarcity Strict quotas on Palestinian consumption –Frozen at 1967 levels –Palestinians: 137m³/person—Israelis: 2000m³/person Palestinians prohibited from drilling new wells or repairing water/sewer infrastructure Uneven pricing schemes –Israeli settlers pay $0.10/m³ –Palestinians pay $1.20/m³ –Relative to income, Palestinians pay 20 times what Israeli settlers pay for water Neighborhood desalination provide fresh drinking water to ~20% population; rest buy bottled drinking water –Families pay as much as 1/3 their monthly income for water

12. 12 Environmental Scarcity and Conflict Population growth “Demand- induced scarcity” Unequal resource access “Structure- induced scarcity” Increased environmental scarcity Migration, expulsion Decreased economic productivity Weakened states Ethnic conflicts Coups d’état Deprivation conflicts Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999 ↓ water, food “Supply- induced scarcity”

13. Food Supply and Climate Change Grain yields  by 10% for every 1°C  in global average surface T° 2°C to 3°C  likely; 3°C to 5°C  possible Therefore 20% to 30%  likely; 30% to 50%  possible  2.5 billion people by 2050 13

15. Global Food Production Individual Food Supply Distribution Access CLIMATE CHANGE Adaptation Resilience vs Vulnerability The Global Food System and Climate Change Global Food Supply Resources Land Water Energy Soil Labor Sectors Agriculture Livestock Wild Fisheries Aquaculture Global Food Production Sectors Agriculture Livestock Wild Fisheries Aquaculture Resources Land Water Energy Soil Labor Meat consumption Population Technology Conflict Policies Poverty/Inequality Economic Development Income Food Prices Food Aid Social, Political & Economic Factors ?

16. 16 2007 IPPC FAR; http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page6.php The Arab Spring

17. 17 Syria Vegetation Health Index http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/bgdocs_Erian_Katlan_&_Babah_2010. pdf Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Drought vulnerability in the Arab region: Special case study on Syria, 2010

18. 18 Environmental Peacemaking Scarce resources can be used as a tool Cooperate to manage environmental resources –transform insecurities and –create more peaceful relationships between parties in dispute –overcome political tensions –promoting interaction, confidence building, and technical cooperation -Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Former Director Environmental Change and Security Program Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

19. Minerva Initiative of the U.S. Pentagon Engage scientific community to identify –Regions of high risk –Elements of climate change related risk Food, water, migration, disaster, population, disease –Elements of resilience What allows communities faced with catastrophe to NOT devolve into conflict? How can the US assist in fostering these elements to prevent future conflict 19