1. Presentation at RIS, New Delhi
Economic Integration between South Asia and East Asia: A Perception Survey of Opinion Leaders
Pradumna B. Rana
Associate Professor
RSIS-NTU
Chia Wai Mun
Assistant Professor
NTU
Presentation at RIS, New Delhi
29 January 2014

2. Outline Introduction Objectives Trends in SA/EA Economic Linkages
Initiatives to Promote SA/EA Linkages
Economic Integration in South Asia
Policy Implications

3. I. Introduction
Perception Survey was supported by the Academic Research Fund of Nanyang Technological University provided by the Ministry of Education, Singapore
Survey will be a chapter of a book that we are co-authoring on “Jump-starting South Asia: Round Two of Reforms and Look East Policies”

4. II. Objectives of the Study
Assess the views of stakeholders in South Asia and East Asia on integration between the two regions
Test the relative strengths of the findings of our various papers

5. Our Papers
Francois, J, PB Rana and G. Wignaraja (eds) (2009). Pan-Asian Integration: Linking East and South Asia. Basingstoke: Palgrave MacMillan.
Rana, PB Renaissance of Asia. World Scientific Publishers, Singapore.
Rana, PB and WM Chia (2013). South Asia Needs Phase 2 of Look East Policies. Economic and Political Weekly 48(35).
Rana, PB and WM Chia (2014). Perception Survey of Asian Opinion Leaders on Economic Linkages between South Asia and East Asia. Draft
Rana, PB and WM Chia (2014). The Revival of the Silk Roads (Land Connectivity) in Asia. Draft
Rana, PB and BKarmacharya (2013). A Connectivity-Driven Development Strategy for Nepal: From a Landlocked to a Land-linked State. Forthcoming ADBI

6. Profile of Respondents
EAST ASIA
Academia
Business
Government
Others
Total N %
Brunei Darussalam 0% 1
100%
Cambodia
33% 3
China 19
90% 2
10% 21
Indonesia 12
46% 4% 9
35% 4
15% 26
Japan 11
79%
14% 7% 14
Lao PDR
Malaysia 10
56%
11% 6 18
Myanmar
25%
50%
Philippines 15
58%
38%
Singapore
45%
19%
32% 3% 31
South Korea
Thailand
55% 9%
36%
Vietnam
13% 7
29% 24
East Asia
105 16 59
187
SOUTH ASIA
Academia
Business
Government
Others
Total N %
Afghanistan 0% 1
100%
Bangladesh 13
93% 7% 14
Bhutan
20% 2
40% 5
India 65
56% 9 8% 18
16% 24
21%
116
Maldives
33%
67% 3
Nepal 15
58%
19% 4
15% 26
Pakistan
75%
10% 20
Sri Lanka 8
44%
11%
South Asia
118 39
13%
203
Academia
Business
Govt
Others
Total N %
TOTAL
223
57% 36 9% 98
25% 33 8%
390
100%
Total Respondents 
390
 Sample
5300
Response Rate 7%

7. III. SA/ EA Linkages: Need for LEPII in South Asia

8. Costs of Strengthening Economic Linkages

9. Benefits of Strengthening Economic Linkages

10. Modalities of Regional Cooperation

11. Obstacles and Barriers to Economic Linkages

12. Required Policy Actions in South Asia

13. IV. Initiatives to Promote SA/EA Economic Integration

14. Trade

15. Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in EA and the Possible Role for SA

16. Connectivity Issues: Northern and South-western Silk Road
Source: Rana and Chia (2014)

17. Factors That Have Revived the Case for Land and Air Connectivity between SA and EA

18. Connectivity Issues

19. Connectivity Issues

20. Proposed Corridors in South Asia
Source: Rana and Karmacharya (2013)

21. V. Economic Integration in South Asia

23. Income Effects of Alternative FTA Scenarios
South Asia FTA
East Asia FTA
East Asia and India FTA
South Asia and East Asia FTA
Value
$ Mn
% change
South Asia
3,695
0.33
(3,620)
(0.32)
16,199
1.44
22,423
1.99
Bangladesh
351
0.31
(297)
(0.26)
(355)
(0.31)
1,874
1.66
India
1,138
0.14
(2,371)
(0.30)
17,779
2.23
18,240
2.29
Sri Lanka
335
1.08
(117)
(0.38)
(123)
(0.40)
631
2.03
Others
1,246
3.37
(12)
(0.03)
(240)
(0.65)
1,380
3.73
East Asia
(540)
(0.01)
226,855
2.17
239,097
241,485
2.31
ROW
361
0.00
(9,316)
(3,934)
(3,001)
World
3,516
0.01
213,919
0.45
251,363
0.52
260,907
0.54
Note: ROW is rest of the world. Changes are computed relative to 2017 baseline at constant 2001 prices.
Source: Francois, Rana, and Wignaraja (2009)

24. VI. Policy Implications
Market-led approaches (including connectivity) should drive South Asia/ East Asia integration.
ASEAN-India connectivity and BCIM Economic Corridor are strongly supported.
SASEC and BIMSTEC have strong potential in promoting SA/EA integration.
Efforts must also be made to promote South Asia/ Southern China/ ASEAN Connectivity or the SSR: Nepal has a role to play.
The proposed economic corridors in South Asia would help connect CAREC and GMS corridors, making Asia truly seamless (ADB should note).
Just as in the case of the EAS, ASEAN must invite India to join the ERDP and India could pledge funds to the CMIM.
At some stage, most South Asia countries must be invited in negotiating the RCEP.

25. Thank you