1. National Development Plan - Vision 2030: What role will agriculture play?
Johann Kirsten
Department of Agricultural Economics
University of Pretoria

2. Contents
Short overview of the National Planning Commission proposals for the agricultural sector
The place and role of the agricultural industry in KZN in the proposals
The role of organised agriculture and commodity organisations in achieving Vision 2030

3. National Development Plan

4. National Planning Commission
National Development Plan – released 11 November 2011; expanded version August 2012
Approved by Cabinet – 10 September 2012
Charting a new path to eliminate poverty and reduce inequality by Objectives include:
Reduce the number households earning below R419 per month by 2030 from 39% to zero
Gini coefficient to fall from 0.69 to 0.6 by 2030
Create 11 million jobs by 2030
Raise per capita income from R in 2010 to R by 2030
National income of bottom 40% to increase from 6% to 10%
Education- all children in grade 3 to be able to read and write
Affordable access to quality health care
Household food and nutrition security
Increase investment in labour-intensive sectors-incentives to employ youth
Vision 2013 for rural economy:
rural communities have greater opportunities to participate fully in the economic, social and political life
Driving force – expansion of irrigation, unutilised arable land
Agriculture has the potential to create 1 million jobs

5. Employment in South African agriculture: 1911 -2010
Source: GF Liebenberg, 2011

6. Agriculture has the potential, but SA needs to:…
Expand irrigation agriculture. There is evidence that the current 1.5 million hectares under irrigation (which produces virtually all of South Africa’s horticultural harvest, and some field crops, i.e. well over a third of total output) can be expanded.
Bring some of the under-used land in the communal areas and under land reform projects into commercial production over a period of time that is commensurate with the aims and objectives of the land reform programme and South Africa’s food security needs.
Expand commercial agriculture.

7. SA needs to…..
Pick and support ‘winners’ from commercial agriculture – those sectors and regions which have the highest potential for growth and specifically for employment-creating growth.
Support employment creation in the upstream and downstream industries. The potential for employment creation will come from the growth in output that will result from the first three strategies.
Find creative combinations between these opportunities. This will include:
greater emphasis on land that has the potential or that has already been serviced with irrigation infrastructure,
giving priority to successful farmers in the communal areas as land reform beneficiaries,
and giving targeted support to industries and areas of high employment creation potential in order to maximise collaboration between existing farmers and land reform beneficiaries, etc.
And… we assume “All appropriate policy frameworks, fiscal allocation for infrastructure development etc. are in place”

8. Total cultivated area
Source: GF Liebenberg, 2011

9. Underutilized land
From 2 previous maps, a further expansion potential of some +- 3m ha potential arable land (maybe 2m ha conservatively)
…..yes, some of the marginal land has been taken out of production
Some of this is high potential land in the former homelands.
Plus reports that a majority of the land reform projects have failed- on 5.9 million ha of land

10. Potential for expansion of irrigation agriculture
Total upper limit of irrigation potential additional ha.
More realistic estimate ha.
Over baseline period realistically not more than ha.
Ground water ha.
The upper limit of irrigation potential is approximately ha and almost ha if irrigation from ground water is taken into account. It should however be noted that expansion of the current storage capacity reflects long-term potential and would therefore not impact the baseline period considered. In addition to this the maximum additional hectares that can be irrigated from efficiency gains in existing water management areas is ha. The full ha is unlikely to be utilized fully in the foreseeable future since water management systems are slow to adopt new and more efficient measures of distributing water. As a result a more conservative estimate of the additional area that could be irrigated is ha. And if the focus is specifically on the baseline period (up until 2020) it would be safe to say that additional hectares could be irrigated during this period. Groundwater is not considered in this estimate due to the high energy cost associated with of gaining access to this resource. Groundwater might however become more accessible when new and more cost effective technologies such as solar power are considered.

11. More efficient irrigation practices
Although SA still has some potential to expand irrigation, there are major constraints with respect to investment and infrastructure.
….not to mentioned the fact that less water could be allocated to agriculture in future
Most of this potential expansion can be achieved as a result of savings through water loss control & improved irrigation efficiency. (Water Research Commission)
Technical efficiency levels for irrigation practices:
IRRIGATION METHOD
EFFICIENCY LEVEL
FLOOD
55-65%
SPRINKLER
75-85%
MICRO/DRIP
85-95%
Source: Reinders 1992

12. The identification of “winners”
Three approaches to identify industries that can contribute to significant growth in employment:
Large export industries with high labour requirements.
High volume imports that can be substituted with locally produced goods.
Growing small industries with high labour requirements.

13. The employment creation matrix

14. Export Industries 2000 2009 2010 Growth (2010/2000) R 000 Citrus fruit
4.41
Wine
3.38
Grapes
2.89
Deciduous fruit
3.99
Maize
4.44
Ethyl alcohol
3.81
Sugar
0.98
Preserved fruit, nuts
1.81
Fruit, vegetable juices
2.35
Wool
3.78
Food preparations
3.71
Total
2.93
Source: Abstract of Agricultural Statistics, 2010

15. Import Industries 2000 2009 2010 Growth (2010/2000) R 000 Rice 939 029
2000
2009
2010
Growth (2010/2000)
R 000
Rice
3.29
Palm oil
6.77
Soya-bean oil-cake
469,907
4.29
Wheat
3.16
Meat and edible offal of poultry
5.77
Tobacco
3.15
Food preparations
2.94
Sunflower- and cotton-seed oil
2.51
Preparations in animal feed
2.87
Dried leguminous vegetables
4.44
Total
3.44
Source: Agricultural Abstract of Statistics, 2010

16. Smaller Industries Macadamias Olives Avocados Pecan nuts Figs Herbs
Organic Rooibos Tea
Cherries
Berries

17. Potential expansion Ha irrigated Additional jobs on farm
Commodity
Current area (2010/11)
Potential expansion Ha irrigated
Labour multiplier
Additional jobs on farm
Linkages multiplier
(Up) Downstream jobs
Sugar cane
22 800
1.00
0.30
6 840
Citrus
60 000
15 000
0.66
9 900
Grapes
23 526
4 705
1.62
7 622
1.07
5 031
Apples
21 100
2 532
1.25
3 165
0.83
2 089
Pears
11 435
377
1.26
475
314
Plums
4 227
1 057
1.46
1 543
0.96
1 018
Prunes
431
108
157
104
Peaches
8 348
417
1.20
501
0.79
331
Nectarines
2 028
507
634
418
Avocado pears
13 250
9 275
2.00
18 550
1.32
12 243
Mangos
7 583
1 517
1.40
2 123
0.92
1 401
Litchis
1 163
233
326
215
Bananas
12 000
3 600
7 200
4 752
Guavas
990
198
1.50
297
0.99
196
Pawpaws
2 710
677
1 355
0.60
406
Cotton
7 000
2 100
Tobacco
4 000
400
2.20
880
1.45
581
Potatoes
53 472
6 417
0.80
5 133
0.56
3 593
Tomatoes
9 537
4 769
3.50
16 690
1.05
5 007
Onions
6 814
4 088
0.98
4 007
0.29
1 202
Carrots
3 280
2 296
3.00
6 888
0.90
2 066
Pumpkins
5 725
2 576
2.10
5 410
0.63
1 623
Green mielies
18 667
3 733
1 120
Pecan nuts
14 000
1.30
18 200
0.65
9 100
Macadamias
17 100
11 970
9 576
0.32
3 830
Olives
2 500
0.75
11 250
0.50
7 425
Rooibos
5 000
Pomegranate
1 200
4 680
0.86
3 089
Strawberries
213
235
2.30
540
1.52
356
Flowers
545
13.00
7 085
8.58
4 676
Cherries
230
552
1 656
1.98
1 093
TOTAL
97 120

18. Potential expansion Ha Additional jobs on farm
Non-labour intensive
Commodity
Current area
Potential expansion Ha
Labour multiplier
Additional jobs on farm
Linkages multiplier
Up/down
stream jobs
White maize
0.01
1 185
0.005
592
Yellow maize
2 385
1 193
Wheat
61 000
610
305
Barley
83 000
6 640 66
0.008 53
Soybeans
3 762
0.007
2 633
Sunflower
96 300
963
482
Canola
40 000
4 800 48 24
TOTAL
9 019
5 282

19. Potential expansion Tonnes Additional jobs on farm
Livestock
Current production
Potential expansion Tonnes
Labour multiplier
Additional jobs on farm
Linkages multiplier
Up/downstream jobs
Poultry
0.0222
14 744
0.0143
9 479
Eggs
0.0400
7 729
2 760
Dairy
0.0286
14 935
0.0154
8 042
Beef
4 037
0.0071
2 019
Pork
25 715
0.0185
476
0.0093
238
Sheep meat
98 200
0.0083
982
842
Wool
45 500
20 475
170
171
TOTAL
43 074
23 550

20. KWANALU and the Vision 2030
Which are the relevant aspects in the National Development Plan for KWANALU and commodity organisations in KZN?
“Develop strategies that give new entrants access to product value chains and support from better resourced players”
“Convert some under-used land in communal areas into commercial production”
“Job creation in downstream industries”
“effectiveness of extension officers need to improve”
“White commercial farmers, agribusinesses and organised agricultural industry bodies can help bring these objectives to fruition”.
“Innovative means for agricultural extension and training by the state in partnership with industries should be sought”
NPC argues that non-labour intensive livestock industry can create an additional primary jobs and secondary jobs.

21. Commodity organisations and the Vision 2030
Commodity organisations are critical in achieving the vision
Many commodity organisations are already doing good work in the spirit envisaged by the plan.
Aspects that could receive further attention:
greater support for innovative public-private partnerships
expand innovative market linkages for small-scale farmers in the communal and land reform areas
improve and extend skills development and training in agricultural sector – including a new-cadre of extension officers
continue the work on new farmers’ associations – will provide greater collective power to poor producers, better skills and greater income
expansion of commercial agriculture in current commercial agricultural system is limited – needs to happen elsewhere.

22. Will SA farmers and agribusinesses invest in agriculture?
Sentiment critical
Security of expectations over political and economic future
Leadership in agriculture and politics
Need clear agricultural policy and policy on land.
Smart subsidies and incentives to encourage employment and investment.

23. We can learn a lot from China…
..on how to be serious about rural and agricultural policy
Chinese Central Government each and every year chooses one area to be addressed by their first policy document – dubbed “the No. 1 Document“ - Top of China’s Agenda
In the past 9 consecutive years, the topics are all about agricultural and rural development
These documents carry budget implications for the Central Government, and huge investment and subsidies are now flowing to the agricultural and rural sectors

24. Objectives in the ‘no 1 document’ in China
2004
Increasing farmers' income
2005
Improving the agricultural production capacity
2006
Pushing forward the "new countryside" scheme
2007
Developing the modern agriculture
2008
Consolidating the foundation of agriculture
2009
Improving the rural development & farmer’s income
2010
Balancing the urban and rural development
2011
Enhancing the rural irrigation system
2012
Encouraging the agricultural technology innovation

25. Closing remarks
The NDP provides some hope that SA government recognises the potential role of the agricultural sector in achieving Vision 2030
Suggests that we are serious about agriculture and issues of rural poverty
But… can DAFF, DRDLR and PDAs implement the programmes and remove the chaos and uncertainty to make this a reality?
There still remains an important task for organised agriculture: Unity and one farmer association.