1. MAP D-PHASE Forecast Demonstration Project Instrument of WWRP Last phase of MAP Mathias Rotach, MeteoSwiss

2. What is an FDP?  WWRP instrument > Forecast of weather of international relevance  high-impact weather > Clear evaluation protocols > Expectation of success > Clear advance in operational forecast.  Proposal to WWRP

3. Components of MAP FDP  Forecast heavy precipitation events in the alps  Include assimilation schemes (e.g., for radar data)  Coupling hydro/meteo models  End-user specific products  develop and verify on MAP cases  experience with operational MC-2 (3km resolution during MAP SOP)  Forecast Demonstration period

4. General Goals  Demonstrate ability for improved forecast of heavy precipitation in the alps  High-resolution atmospheric modelling  ensemble forecast technique  Radar data (assimilation)  Hydrological modeling  End users involved (end user needs, e.g. probabilistic forecasts)  Evaluation protocols (yet to be determined)

5. D-PHASE…. Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of Flooding Events in the Alps

6. D-PHASE essentials  Forecast (warning) chain for heavy precipitation events in the alps  Test in pre-defined ‘Forecast Period’  MAP season (Sept to November): 2006 (7?)  extension to COPS (DFG field program on QNV in summer 07)?  Joint Target area: Lago Maggiore – various sub- areas

7. Strategy for D-PHASE Atmosphere - Multi-component approach: 1. Local EPS systems (COSMO-LEPS, LAMEPS, PEPS,..)  3-5 days probabilistic forecast  likelihood of ‘event’

8. Probability maps for 24 h precipitation André Walser & COSMO-LEPS

9. Strategy for D-PHASE Atmosphere - Multi-component approach: 1. Local EPS systems (COSMO-LEPS, LAMEPS, PEPS,..)  3-5 days probabilistic forecast  likelihood of ‘event’ 2. ‘standard’ deterministic models at high resolution (1-3km)  short-range, targeted  coupled hydrological models  latest radar information assimilated 3. A possible ‘micro-LEPS’ made up as a poor man’s EPS from the above  probabilistic information on hydrol. patterns.

10. Strategy for D-PHASE Hydrosphere: 1. Hydrological models  distributed  coupled 2. Assimilation of latest information  radar composites  rain gauges 3. Probabilistic forcing  from atmospheric models  from radar (obs) uncertainty

11. Using COSMO-LEPS for hydrological forecasting COSMO-LEPS Setup: quasi-operational since November 2002 initial and boundary cond. from ECMWF EPS Integration period: 120 h Model: Lokal Modell (LM) Grid-spacing: 10 km, 32 levels Hydrological Model Setup: Rhine upstream of Rheinfelden (34550 km 2 ) Model: PREVAH (Gurtz et al. 1999) Driven by LM / COSMO-LEPS A few test cases with 51 EPS members AARE (Thun) ILL (Gisingen) Mark Verbunt, Christoph Schär ETH Zürich & COSMO-LEPS crew

12. Deterministic Runoff Forecast observed runoff Runoff [mm/h] Aare - Thun (2490 km 2 ) 1970: ~400 m 3 /s 1999: ~570 m 3 /s initialization deterministic forecast hydrological model driven by surface observations simulated runoff Mark Verbunt, Christoph Schär ETH Zürich & COSMO-LEPS crew

13. Deterministic versus Probabilistic Forecast Runoff [mm/h] AARE - Thun (2490 km 2 ) 51 member LEPS forecast hydrological model driven by surface observations no precip initialization (Mark Verbunt, ETH Zürich) Mark Verbunt, Christoph Schär ETH Zürich & COSMO-LEPS crew

14. Deterministic versus Probabilistic Forecast Runoff [mm/h] ILL – Gisingen 51 member LEPS forecast hydrological model driven by surface observations initialization Mark Verbunt, Christoph Schär ETH Zürich & COSMO-LEPS crew

15. Representative members Runoff [mm/h] 5 EPS members (COSMO-LEPS clustering) 10 EPS members (COSMO-LEPS clustering) 51 EPS members Runoff [mm/h] (Mark Verbunt, ETH Zürich) ILL – Gisingen Mark Verbunt, Christoph Schär ETH Zürich & COSMO-LEPS crew

16. Strategy for D-PHASE End users: 1.Authorities  civil protection  river/lake management 2.THEIR needs  thresholds  cost/loss --> end-to-end flood forecasting system

17. Event? Where? yes HI-res simulation Alert Day -4 ECMWF EPS LAMEPS Day 0 Latest obs. Nowcasting Latest obs. Action Time regionalLEPS (COSMO) LEPS Days -3, -2, -1 Sub-domain X no HI-res simulation HI-res simulation HI-res simulation HI-res simulation Confir- mation ECMWF EPS LAMEPS regionalLEPS (COSMO) LEPS HI-res LEPS Hydrol. simulation

18. Contributions  Many (more than one..) LEPS SYSTEMS  Many high-res (1-4km) deterministic models --> most covering ‚the alps‘

20. Contributions  Many (more than one..) LEPS SYSTEMS  Many high-res (1-4km) deterministic models --> most covering ‚the alps‘  Many hydrol. Models --> each for one (more) catchment

22. Contributions  Many (more than one..) LEPS SYSTEMS  Many high-res (1-4km) deterministic models --> most covering ‚the alps‘  Quite a few hydrol. Models --> each for one (more) catchments  End users: to be determined & involved

23. Time table  Evaluation etc.2007  Demonstration period:Aug to Nov 2006 (Jun/Jul desirable)  Test chain readysummer 2006  High res. models tested:end 2005  Hydrol. Models tested:end 2005  Test cases defined:May 2005  Definition of user needs:May 2005  Set up of organisationend 2005 (done)  Financial resources: Startsummer 2005 applicationasap (dependent on what/where/etc)  Proposal WWRP:spring 2005  Start:May 2004 Time June to Nov 2007 ??

24. Thank you for your attention