1. Atmospheric Research Adaptation, Vulnerability and Integrated Risk Assessment Roger N. Jones Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research Symposium on Global Change Research March 23, Canberra

2. Atmospheric Research Risk Can be broadly defined as the likelihood of an adverse event or outcome How does this relate to Article 2 of the UNFCCC?

3. Atmospheric Research Article 2 UNFCCC Aims to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change by stabilising greenhouse gas emissions, thus allowing Ecosystems to adapt naturally Food security to be maintained Sustainable development to proceed Hazard Consequence Management criteria Through adaptation and mitigation Management options

4. Atmospheric Research What is dangerous climate change? This is a value judgement best assessed by policymakers, stakeholders and the community. Research can help with problem definition, plausibility and likelihood of various aspects Global thresholds of criticality: grounded ice sheet melts, N. Hemisphere flips to cold conditions, Amazon wilts and burns in heat and drought Local thresholds of criticality: any activity where impacts become non-viable with no reasonable substitute or the harm caused exceeds given levels of tolerance

5. Atmospheric Research Attaching likelihood What is the likelihood of exceeding given levels of criticality without risk management? What type and level of management is needed to reduce these risks? These questions can be assessed on a range of scales

6. Atmospheric Research Risk management Mitigation – reduces climate hazards Adaptation – reduces the consequences for a given level of climate-related hazard Adaptation may act to: reduce harm, take advantage of benefits, and modify ongoing change processes

7. Atmospheric Research Linking climate to adaptation over time Climate system Impacted activity Socio- economic system Current climate Future climate Future adaptations Current adaptations

8. Atmospheric Research Measuring the ability to cope

9. Atmospheric Research Coping under climate change

10. Atmospheric Research Four pillars of climate risk analysis Most systems affected by climate variability have evolved to cope with that variability to some extent Climate change will mainly be felt as changes to climate variability and extremes. Without adaptation, damages will increase with successively higher levels of global warming Critical thresholds occurring at low levels of global warming and sea level rise are much more likely to be exceeded than those occurring at higher levels

11. Atmospheric Research Bleaching thresholds

12. Atmospheric Research Simulated historical bleaching events at Magnetic Island

13. Atmospheric Research Mortality threshold

14. Atmospheric Research Bleaching severity Bleaching level ImpactRecovery BleachingLoss of color<1 year + 0.5°C Some mortality (e.g. 1998, 2002) 1-3 years + 1.0°CWidespread mortality (transplant experiments) 3-? years + 1.5°C Not experienced – but worse Longer + 2.0°C Not experienced – but even worse Longer + 2.5°CNot experienced – catastrophic? Decades +

15. Atmospheric Research Bleaching risk as a function of warming

16. Atmospheric Research When is the coping range of coral reef communities exceeded? Physical bleaching rates Ecosystem damage People’s livelihoods affected (e.g. fishing, tourism) Policy objectives Species/ecosystem rights to exist Are we happy with algal mats and seaweed?

17. Atmospheric Research Bioclimatic thresholds exceeded as a function of warming

18. Atmospheric Research Macquarie River Catchment Burrendong Dam Windamere Dam Major Areas of Abstraction Macquarie R Contributing Area Macquarie Marshes Area ~ 75,000 km 2 P = 1000 to <400 mm. Major dams: Burrendong and Windamere Water demands: irrigation agriculture; Macquarie Marshes; town supply Most flow from upper catchment runoff Most demand in the lower catchment

19. Atmospheric Research Irrigation allocations and wetland inflows - historical climate and 1996 rules

20. Atmospheric Research Critical thresholds Macquarie River Catchment Irrigation 5 consecutive years below 50% allocation of water right Wetlands 10 consecutive years below bird breeding events Both thresholds are exceeded if mean streamflow decreases by 10% under a drought-dominated climate, by 20% under a normal climate and by 30% under a flood-dominated climate

21. Atmospheric Research Risk analysis results Macquarie 2030

22. Atmospheric Research Change in risk as a function of global warming

23. Atmospheric Research Metrics for measuring costs Monetary losses (gains) Loss of life Change in quality of life Species and habitat loss Distributional equity

24. Atmospheric Research Estimating ‘dangerous climate change’ Assumptions 1.Atmospheric CO 2 354–1500 ppm 2.Climate sensitivity 1.5–4.5°C 3.Non-CO 2 forcing 0.5–3.5Wm -2 Randomly sampled at uniform distribution

25. Atmospheric Research Temperature at stabilisation

26. Atmospheric Research Temperature at stabilisation

27. Atmospheric Research Probabilities of meeting temperature targets at given levels of CO 2 stabilisation

28. Atmospheric Research Estimating ‘dangerous climate change’ - Take 2 Assumptions 1.Atmospheric CO 2 354–1000 ppm (uniform) 2.Climate sensitivity Expert (Forrest et al. non linear) 3.Non-CO 2 forcing 0.5–3.5Wm -2, linked to CO 2 (non linear) Randomly sampled

29. Atmospheric Research Temperature at stabilisation

30. Atmospheric Research Temperature at stabilisation

31. Atmospheric Research Adaptation and mitigation Adaptation increases the coping range through biological and social means Mitigation reduces the magnitude and frequency of greenhouse-related climate hazards Therefore, they are complementary, not interchangeable. They also reduce different areas of climate uncertainty

32. Atmospheric Research Moving forward Adaptation Most suited to impacts vulnerable to current climate risks or small changes in climate change (These are the most likely to be affected) Cannot cope with large changes or many impacts (too expensive and difficult) Adaptation will be local and mainly shorter- term adjustments Mitigation Reduces climate hazards (e.g. global warming) progressively from the top down. Unlikely to prevent a certain level of climate change – adaptation will be needed for such changes. Mitigation that presents as a cost now will become profitable when damages become more apparent and BAU for the energy system changes to low emission operation

33. Almost certain Highly likely Least likely Low probability, extreme outcomes Damage to the most sensitive, many benefits Increased damage to many systems, fewer benefits Considerable damage to most systems Moderately likely ProbabilityConsequence Core benefits of adaptation and mitigation Probability – the likelihood of reaching or exceeding a given level of global warming Consequence – the effect of reaching or exceeding a given level of global warming Risk = Probability × Consequence Vulnerable to current climate Happening now

34. Atmospheric Research Activities most at risk Those where critical thresholds are exceeded at low levels of global warming, adaptive capacity is low and/or adaptation is prohibitively expensive, difficult or unknown and the consequences of exceeding those thresholds are judged to be serious