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Climate Forecasting Unit Climate of the Month January-February 2012 Melanie Davis.

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Presentation on theme: "Climate Forecasting Unit Climate of the Month January-February 2012 Melanie Davis."— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate Forecasting Unit Climate of the Month January-February 2012 Melanie Davis

2 Climate Forecasting Unit Outline 1) North Atlantic/European region 2) Arctic Ocean 3) Pacific/North American region 4) Tropical Pacific

3 Climate Forecasting Unit Outline 1) North Atlantic/European region 2) Arctic Ocean 3) Pacific/North American region 4) Tropical Pacific

4 Climate Forecasting Unit The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Positive phaseNegative phase Source : http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/

5 Climate Forecasting Unit Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtm l Observed North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index Based on monthly 500hPa height anomaly fields for the three-month period centered on each month during January 1950 - December 2000. +'ve phase

6 Climate Forecasting Unit February 2012 500hPa Geopotential Height Anomaly From NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/ January 2012 NAO +'ve phase = strong subtropical high pressure, strong Icelandic low pressure NAO -'ve phase = weak subtropical high pressure, weak Icelandic low pressure

7 Climate Forecasting Unit Surface Precipitation Rate Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology January 2012 February 2012 Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/ mm/day NAO +'ve phase = wet winter in Europe, wet in USA, dry in N.Canada/Greenland NAO -'ve phase = moist air in Med., drier in N. Europe, snow in E. USA

8 Climate Forecasting Unit Surface Precipitation Rate Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology January 2012 February 2012 Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/ mm/day

9 Climate Forecasting Unit Surface Air Temperature Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology January 2012 February 2012 Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/ °C NAO +'ve phase = warm winter in Europe, mild in USA, cold in N.Canada/Greenland NAO -'ve phase = moist air in Med., cold in N. Europe, cold in E. USA, mild Greenland

10 Climate Forecasting Unit Surface Air Temperature Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology January 2012 February 2012 Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/ °C

11 Climate Forecasting Unit Outline 1) North Atlantic/European region 2) Arctic Ocean 3) Pacific/North American region 4) Tropical Pacific

12 Climate Forecasting Unit January 2012 February 2012 500hPa Geopotential Height Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/ NAO +'ve phase = strong subtropical high pressure, strong Icelandic low pressure NAO -'ve phase = weak subtropical high pressure, weak Icelandic low pressure

13 Climate Forecasting Unit January 2012 February 2012 °C Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/ Surface Air Temperature Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1968-1996 climatology NAO +'ve phase = warm winter in Europe, mild in USA, cold in N.Canada/Greenland NAO -'ve phase = moist air in Med., cold in N. Europe, cold in E. USA, mild Greenland

14 Climate Forecasting Unit Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html Arctic Sea Ice Extent (from NSIDC) Dec. 2011

15 Climate Forecasting Unit Arctic Sea Ice Extent (from NSIDC) Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html Jan. 2012

16 Climate Forecasting Unit Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html Arctic Sea Ice Extent (from NSIDC) Feb. 2012

17 Climate Forecasting Unit Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Anomalies (from NSIDC) Dec. 2011

18 Climate Forecasting Unit Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Anomalies (from NSIDC) Jan. 2012

19 Climate Forecasting Unit Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Anomalies (from NSIDC) Feb. 2012

20 Climate Forecasting Unit Outline 1) North Atlantic/European region 2) Arctic Ocean 3) Pacific/North American region 4) Tropical Pacific

21 Climate Forecasting Unit Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna_index.html Based on monthly 500hPa height anomaly fields for the three- month period centered on each month during January 1950 - December 2000. Observed Pacific North American (PNA) Index +ve phase +ve,-ve phase

22 Climate Forecasting Unit 500hPa Geopotential Height Anomaly From NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/ February 2012 January 2012 PNA +ve phase = above normal pressure W.USA, below normal pressure E.USA PNA -ve phase = below normal pressure W.USA, above normal pressure E.USA

23 Climate Forecasting Unit Surface Air Temperature Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/ °C February 2012 January 2012 PNA +ve phase = above av. temp. W.USA/Canada, below av. temp. S.Central/E.USA PNA -ve phase = below av. temp. W.USA, above av. temp. E.USA

24 Climate Forecasting Unit Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/ mm/day Surface Precipitation Rate Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology February 2012 January 2012 PNA +ve phase = above normal ppt. Gulf Alaska to Pacific NW.USA, below normal ppt. Upper Mid-W. USA PNA -ve phase = opposite ?

25 Climate Forecasting Unit Outline 1) North Atlantic/European region 2) Arctic Ocean 3) Pacific/North American region 4) Tropical Pacific

26 Climate Forecasting Unit Source : http://www.prh.noaa.gov/peac/peu/2011_2nd/soi.ph.

27 Climate Forecasting Unit Source : http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/ind ex3.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/ind ex3.shtml

28 Climate Forecasting Unit January 2012 Source : http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/index.shtml KK K Surface Surface Temperature Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology February 2012

29 Climate Forecasting Unit Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/ mm/day Surface Precipitation Rate Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology February 2012 January 2012

30 Climate Forecasting Unit What do we expect from the ENSO cycle? Source : http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=945&mode=2

31 Climate Forecasting Unit Summary  NAO: weak, but getting more positive towards Feb 2012  Warmer Artic Ocean, Artic sea ice depletion  PNA: slightly positive, stronger in Feb 2012  La Niña prevails and forecasted to continue a few months

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