1. Thesis Topics Prof. Tom Murphree Dept. of Meteorology, NPS murphree@nps.edu Two Main Topic Areas 1.Climatology in Support of DoD Operations 2.METOC Metrics: Analysis of the Performance and Operational Impacts of DoD Forecasts For both areas, we: 1.Address both meteorological and oceanographic issues 2.Apply science to help meet operational DoD requirements

2. Warfighters not getting full benefit of proven operational climo because: 1.DoD climatology has fallen behind the times and relies almost exclusively on long term mean climatology. 2.This is not sufficient for DoD planning and operations. Need to also account for climate variations and climate forecasting. 3.Information often not: (a) up to date; and/or (b) available at sufficient spatial / temporal resolution for area or period of interest. 4.Very relevant climo information, methods, and products not yet readily available to AFW and METOC personnel or their customers. a. not yet adapted for military use b. no central, easily accessible source 5.Difficult to translate climo info into environmental impacts on operations. Such translations are rarely provided in off-the-shelf climo products. 6.METOC units must interpret and tailor available climo information to fit their individual needs. a. too time consuming and labor intensive b. much of this tailoring would be more efficient and effective if done by experts at a central location c. units’ time is better spent tailoring state of the art climo to the needs of combatant commanders Climatology --- Statement of Problem Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Oct 05

3. Climatology - Approach to Solving Problem Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Oct 05 Adapt and apply state of the art climo methods and products for use by combatant commanders. That is, adapt and apply methods and products being used in civilian operational climatology. See examples of this approach on following slides.

4. by EN and LN climate variations that are not accounted for in LTM climatologies. Figures from Ford, B., 2000. El Nino and La Nina Events, and Tropical Cyclones: Impacts and Mechanisms. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree. Upper tropospheric height anomalies associated with El Nino (EN) and La Nina (LN) periods. These height anomalies indicate anomalies in steering flow for tropical cyclones (TCs)., with more recurving TCs during EN and more straight runners during LN. This indicates that, for example, Taiwan (Korea) is more likely to be hit by TCs during LN (EN) years. NPS researchers have shown that TC formation sites, tracks, and intensities are affected L H L H L H H L Impacts of Climate Variations on Tropical Cyclone Activity: East Asia and Western North Pacific, October NPS Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Oct 05

5. Operation/MissionEl Nino PeriodsLa Nina Periods Air OperationsImproved ceilings Decreased Turbulence Decreased Convection *Increased Cloudiness Increased Turbulence Increased Convection TrafficablilityImproved surface troop/supply movement due to less precipitation *Degraded surface troop/supply movement due to more precipitation Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance Increased ISR capability due to decreased cloudiness and convection *Diminished capabilities due to increased cloud cover and convection NBC DefenseLess favorable due to increased stability and decreased precipitation More favorable due to decreased stability and increased precipitation Ship OpsMore favorable sea basing/safe haven due to typhoon recurvature Less favorable sea basing/safe haven due to westerly typhoon tracks Green = favorable for indicated operations / mission Yellow = marginal for indicated operation / mission * Conditions slightly improved for NE Taiwan due to decreased monsoonal flow. Impacts of Climate Variations on Joint Operations: Straits of Taiwan, October Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Oct 05 Slide from NPS climatology course

6. Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop State of the Art Climo Products: Arabian Gulf, Winter Upper Ocean Currents, Nov-Mar, Long Term Mean NPS Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Oct 05 1 cm/s From Ford and Murphree (2005) Note LTM inflow in Gulf Of Oman.

7. Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop Smart Climo Products: Arabian Gulf, Winter Upper Ocean Current Anomalies, Nov-Mar, During La Nina Periods NPS Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Oct 05 3 cm/s From Ford and Murphree (2005) Note reversal of LTM inflow in Gulf Of Oman.

8.  Figure shows low level anomaly pattern during periods of above normal precip in SWA.  Pattern occurs during specific phases of El Nino/La Nina, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, Madden Julian Oscillation, and/or North Atlantic Oscillation. Example: much of 2004-05 winter.  Phase reversal  pattern reversal  mechanism reversal  below normal SWA precip.  Mechanisms involve teleconnections from tropics and midlatitudes to SWA.  ENLN, NAO, and MJO predictable at leads of one week to six months  SWA precip may be predictable on these time scales. Next step: develop forecasting systems based on IO-W Pacific convection. Intraseasonal-Interannual Climate Anomalies: Characterization and Development of Forecasts Anomalies and Mechanisms that Lead to Above Normal Precipitation in SWA Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Oct 05 From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. H L Above Normal Precip Below Normal Convection

9. OperationImpacts for Periods With Normal (LTM) Conditions Impact Anomalies for Heavy Precip Periods (e.g., MJO Phase 6 Periods) EO (Electro-optics) Over Target Area CIG CLR- SCT Abs Hum Moon N/A CIGAbs Hum Moon N/A ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) Predator – Bagram CIG >2000’ Vis >3sm X- winds <10kt Icing MDT Turb MDT CIGVisX- winds IcingTurb Climatological Impacts Forecasts for Operational Planning Operational thresholds from AFWA/TN-98/002 Revised 13 June 2003 Impact anomalies: red = worse than normal; white = no change; green = better than normal Sample Forecast Product: Impacts of MJO on SWA Operations From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer.

10. Diego Garcia Bagram AB Manas IAP Kandahar c v x Incirlik AB c v x c v x c v x c v x Herat Use of Intraseasonal Climate Anomalies and Forecasts in Mission Planning Process AR ‘B’ Ceiling Visibility Crosswinds c v x No expected enroute weather impacts Expected enroute weather impacts to airframe may require mission rescheduling Enroute weather impacts exceed allowed criteria; reschedule mission - More southerly storm track will result in possible takeoff delays for tankers leaving Incirlik - Tankers leaving Incirlik will see increased turbulence over Iraq and the northern Persian Gulf - Manas can expect increased precipitation - Bagram will see increased frequency of low ceilings and low visibility as well as crosswinds that may hinder Predator ops - Visibility for helos out of Kandahar will potentially be adversely affected by low clouds enroute; result: potential mission cancellation Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Oct 05 Slide from NPS climatology course

11. Climatology Thesis Topics Methods 1.Analyze climatological data sets for atmosphere and ocean, including satellite data and model generated reanalysis fields from NOAA, NASA, AFCCC, and other sources. 2.Identify climate variation patterns and processes on scales of a week to several years. Analyze both atmospheric and oceanic variations. 3.Assess the impacts of these variations on regions of DoD interest. Goals 1.Develop improved climatologies for these regions to account for climate variations. 2.Develop improved climate forecasting ability for DoD 3.Develop improved assessments and forecasts of climate impacts on military operations.

12. Recommended Courses Modern Climatology, MR 3610 next offering: summer 2006 Advanced Climatology / Atmospheric General Circulation, MR 4250 next offering: fall 2006 Related Student Specialties and Interests Climatology Physical Oceanography Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions Tropical Meteorology General Meteorology Operational Applications of Climatology Climatology Thesis Topics

13. AF Thesis Topics Many topics on the FY05 and FY06 thesis topics list deal with climatology problems (e.g., Korea climo topic). Please see me if you are interested in pursuing any of these topics. Climatology topics that are not on the current AFIT thesis topics list may still be very attractive to AFW. See me or the faculty with whom I co-advise, Col David Smarsh and Lt Col Karl Pfeiffer, for more on this issue. “This is exactly the sort of research we need to be doing!” --- Col Berchoff, AFWA, after hearing brief on on-going SWA climate research by Capt Damon Vorhees, USAF ( approximate quote) Climatology Thesis Topics

14. Feldmeier, J., 2005. Climatic Variations of the California Current System: Application of Smart Climatology to the Coastal Ocean. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, September 2005. Advisors: Profs. T. Murphree and R. Tokmakian. Ford, B., 2000. El Nino and La Nina Events, and Tropical Cyclones: Impacts and Mechanisms. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, June 2000. Advisor: Prof. Tom Murphree. Hildebrand, P., 2001. El Nino and La Nina Events and North Atlantic tropical Cyclones. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2001. Advisor: Prof. Tom Murphree. LaJoie, M., 2006. The Impact of Climate Variations on Military Operations in the Horn of Africa. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2006. Advisors: Prof. Tom Murphree, Lt Col Karl Pfeiffer. Stepanek, A., 2006. Improving Medium-Range Forecasts in North America Using Teleconnections Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2006. Advisors: Prof. Tom Murphree, Prof. Chuck Wash. Vorhees, D., 2006. The Impacts of Global Scale Climate Variations on Southwest Asia. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2006. Advisors: Prof. Tom Murphree, Lt Col Karl Pfeiffer. Recent and On-Going Climatology Thesis Projects

15. Meteorology and Oceanography Metrics Thesis Topics Prof. Tom Murphree Dept. of Meteorology, NPS Performance of Mission Execution Forecasts Issued by Air Mobility Command (AMC) Combat Weather Teams (CWTs) From NPS thesis research of Capt Jeff Jarry, USAF, 2005 False Alarm Rate for No Go MEFs Issued by AMC CWTs in FY04 Heidke Skill Score for MEFs Issued by AMC CWTs in FY04

16. For official use only From NPS thesis research of Capt Jeff Jarry, USAF, 2005 Operational Impacts of Forecasts Saved Mission a. No Go forecast for original plan is accurate b. Go forecast for accepted mitigation plan is accurate. c. Mission successful using mitigation plan, and would have failed using original plan. Air Mobility Command WXM Unit, FY 2004 Number of Weather Mitigation Actions Taken by Operators Estimated Number of Missions Saved Estimated Number of Unnecessary Actions Taken OCTNOVDECJAN FEB MAR APR MAYJUNJULAUGSEPFY04 AVG 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Metrics Thesis Topics

17. Percent Forecast Accuracy for OIF CAOC Forecasts March–April 2003, Mission Type X, Location Y All Forecasts Red Forecasts Yellow Forecasts Green Forecasts For official use only From NPS thesis research of LCDR Jake Hinz, USN, 2004

18. For official use only From NPS thesis research of LCDR Jake Hinz, USN, 2004 Dust Storm OIF Aviation Sorties: Plans and Outcomes March 2003 April 2003 Metrics Thesis Topics

19. From NPS thesis research of LCDR Mark Butler, USN, 2005 Results of metrics research are being transitioned into operational Navy and AF units

20. Metrics Thesis Topics From NPS thesis research of Maj Karen Darnell, USAF, 2006 Results of metrics research are being transitioned into operational Navy and AF units

21. From NPS thesis research of LCDR Mark Butler, USN, 2005 Operational Impacts of Weather Forecasts Provided to Naval Strike and Air Warfare Center, NAS Fallon Metrics Thesis Topics

22. Integration of METOC Metrics and Operational Metrics METOC Forecasts * METOC Observations METOC Performance Metrics Metrics of METOC Impacts on Operational Performance (  Value Added) Operational Plans Operational Outcomes Operational Performance Metrics * or other products Metrics Thesis Topics

23. Methods 1.Develop metrics tools for quantitatively assessing: a.performance of operational AF and Navy forecasts (both atmospheric and oceanographic forecasts) a.operational impacts of these forecasts 2.Apply these metrics tools to operational AF and Navy data sets. 3.Identify most useful metrics for operational use. 4.Implement these tools and the resulting analyses at AF and Navy units (e.g., hubs, CWTs, centers, ships). Goals 1.Develop and apply tools for: a. measuring the performance of forecasts and other products b. measuring the impacts of those products on war fighting operations c. modeling and predicting the impacts of METOC support 2.Identify methods for improving quality and efficiency of METOC support to war fighting operations.

24. Related Courses / Experience Forecasting courses Real world experience in AF and Navy METOC (meteorology and/or oceanography) and the operations of AFW’s and CNMOC’s customers. The operational experience that students bring to this research project is essential to the project’s success. Related Student Specialties and Interests Forecasting / NWP General Meteorology Physical Oceanography Operations Analysis Organizational / Business Management Database Development and Management (especially web-based) Related Student Specialties and Interests Metrics that quantify the performance and operational impacts of METOC products is a very important issue at leadership levels within CNMOC and AFW. This means research on this topic gets attention at relatively high levels. That has been the case for the metrics thesis research completed by past and present Navy and AF students. Examples: Invited thesis briefs to Oceanographer of the Navy, head of AFW, AFW Leadership Conference. Metrics Thesis Topics

25. AF Thesis Topics Several topics on the FY06 thesis topics list deal with forecast performance and operational impacts (e.g., forecaster versus model topic). Please see me if you are interested in pursuing any of these topics. Climatology topics that are not on the current AFIT thesis topics list may still be very acceptable to AFW. See me or the faculty with whom I co-advise, Col David Smarsh and Lt Col Karl Pfeiffer, for more on this issue. Metrics that quantify the performance and operational impacts of METOC products are very important at leadership levels within CNMOC and AFW. This means research on this topic gets attention at relatively high levels. That has been the case for the metrics thesis research completed by past and present Navy and AF students. Examples: Invited thesis briefs to Oceanographer of the Navy, head of AFW, AFW Leadership Conference, CNMOC staff. Metrics Thesis Topics

26. 1.LCDR A. Cantu, USN, 2001. The Role of Weather in Class A Naval Aviation Mishaps. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Co-Advisors: C. Wash and T. Murphree 2.LCDR B. Martin, USN, 2002. METOC and Naval Afloat Operations: Risk Management, Safety, and Readiness. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree, Co-Advisor: C. Wash. 3.LCDR J. Hinz, USN, 2004. Developing and Applying METOC Metrics to Sea Strike: A Case Study of Operation Iraqi Freedom. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree, Co-Advisor: C. Wash. 4.Capt. J. Anderson, USAF, 2004. An Analysis of a Dust Storm Impacting Operation Iraqi Freedom, 25-27 March 2003. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: C. Wash, Second Reader: T. Murphree. 5.Capt. J. Jarry, USAF, 2005. Analysis of Air Mobility Command Weather Mission Execution Forecasts: Metrics of Forecast Performance and Impacts on War Fighting Operations. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree, Co-Advisor: Col. D. Smarsh. 6.LCDR M. Butler, USN, 2005. Automated Metrics of METOC Forecast Performance and Operational Impacts. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree. In progress. 7.Maj K. Darnell, 2006. Analysis of Weather Forecast Impacts on Air Combat Command Operations. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree, Co-Advisor: Col. D. Smarsh. In progress. 8.LT J. Callahan, USN, 2006. Metrics of METOC Forecast Performance and Operational Impacts on Carrier Operations. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree. In progress. Recent and On-Going Metrics Thesis Projects

27. Climatology and Metrics Thesis Topics Prof. Tom Murphree Dept. of Meteorology, NPS Contact Information Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Room 267, Root Hall Department of Meteorology Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943-5114 murphree@nps.edu 831-656-2723 voice 831-656-3061 fax Email is the best way to reach me. But feel free to call or drop by my office anytime.